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August 11, 2007
Finally Getting Loaded
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| I have a little more information on the "loaded"
$125 million dollar budget deficit that I wrote about a few posts back.
More emails flew through the CI newsroom regarding this topic (currently
a dining
room table with an 11 week old girl napping on it, and the gentle
tinkle
of
Legos
coming from the other kid's room). The City Manager, Greg Jones for a couple more days, is saying that the $56 million 10-year budget deficit is a snapshot of where we are today. So it is our real budget deficit. The $125 million projected 10-year deficit is not a "budget deficit", but an "unmet needs" assessment It includes the cost to meet our future needs for increased public safety staff (fire and police), but not increased city staff. This was previously described as a loaded budget analysis. Jones suggests that we need to address the $56 million shortfall first, and separately, and then worry about future needs. So my question to the public is this. What is the point of a 10-year budget analysis? Is it to forecast where we will be in 10 years if nothing changes from today? How valuable is that? Let's look at a household with two kids, 10 and 14. If you wanted to do a projected 10 year budget analysis would you look at your household budget and project only today's expenses forward? Does this realistically assess your financial footing for the next ten years? It might. But what if you knew both of your kids would require a college education. You might want to include those future "needs" in your forecasts. Will the kids need cars to get to college? Not addressing future big expenses in a budget projection is a complete waste of time. In fact the main reason to do a 10-year budget is to identify future costs that you can begin saving for now. So why is Chico looking at its budget deficit without incorporating funding for police, fire, and staff increases? Why does its 10-year deficit not include increases in its largest cost, human resources. If the term "unmet needs" describes better the analysis of our real upcoming issues then we need to be talking about our "unmet needs" assessment and not our "budget deficit". Maybe we can call it our needs deficit. But these are really just semantics. Be aware of them as this issue is discussed in the public. If any 10-year analysis fails to include costs for increases in human resources it is low-balling the real problems facing Chico's financial future. Hiding the financial problems from the public through careful wording of what an analysis looks at is not helpful. The City of Chico should provide a projected budget deficit that includes increases in staff levels and union pay and benefit increases. Otherwise were not being shown the whole picture. pre-posted on 8-10-07 |
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CI Challenge: Can you guess what it is? Winner: No winner. It was a baboon butt. |
Posted by Lon at August 11, 2007 12:00 AM
Comments
RE: Getting loaded - Robot: "will 50 gallons be sufficient?"
CI challenge: Mick Jaggers lips
Posted by: Anthony at August 10, 2007 09:26 AM
Anthony,
In 250 years most robots are powered by cow flatulence. Which oddly enough was also the solution to global cooling experiences in 2067 and beyond.
No on the Jagger's lips. But it is a body part.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at August 10, 2007 09:33 AM
Lon,
No on the Jagger's lips. But it is a body part.
Not one of your parts is it? Looks inflamed and discolored. Might want to get that checked out.
Posted by: Brian Ray at August 10, 2007 09:39 AM
B-Ray,
I'm headed down to a specialist at SF to have it removed right now. Which reminds me, any comments coming in after this one probably won't be posted until this evening. But keep up coming, I'll get them up.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at August 10, 2007 09:56 AM
What? Lon surely you remember that line delivered to Earl Holliman who played the cook on the spaceship in the move classic "Forbidden Planet"
One of the sets from that movie (with the triangular doors for the "krell") was recyled to use for the earliest Star Trek episodes "Where no man has gone before". Thats the one with Sally Kellerman in it.
Since hackers or errant ditch diggers have taken down my business internet connection since yesterday, I have nothing left to do except blather movie trivia on this blog.
Posted by: Anthony at August 10, 2007 10:01 AM
Anthony,
I missed the reference, but very much enjoy the movie Forbidden Planet. A sci-fi classic of epic proportions.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at August 10, 2007 10:06 AM
Holliman played the alcoholic cook. He was on a remote planet and down to his last drop of booze.
Robby the Robot had a food replicator (also used in Star Trek) so Holliman goes to the robot and hands him this little bit of whishey in a vial and says "can you make more of this?"
The Robot replies " Yes, will 50 gallons be sufficient?"
The expression on Hollimans face was priceless.
Posted by: Anthony at August 10, 2007 10:13 AM
Nose of a KPIG listener?
Posted by: Gregg Payne at August 10, 2007 12:04 PM
Hi Lon,
I was thinking how I wanted to post a reply here, but then after all those sci-fi allusions, not to mention previous auto humor, and other stereotypically male references that leave me confused, I wondered if this was the group for me.
But that aside, I just want to congratulate you on your amazingly effective campaign. You've succeeded in hooking a host of new readers (or at minimum, one) with your combination of cool new bumper-stickers with witty slogans, clever writing with an achievable agenda and clear plan for the future, and most importantly, the highly addicting CI Challenge. I think you would do well to start selling ads on this blog to support your campaign.
Best of luck,
Tempra
Posted by: Tempra at August 10, 2007 01:39 PM
On the CI challenge... a close up of a retina.
On the semantics exercise; it is getting to be such a blur that I can not be certain, but if it was a verbal-gymnastics reverse 1.5 somersault with 3.5 twists, I’d give it a score of 9.5
We really ought to break the discussion up into a few smaller bit sized pieces.
Among them is the relevance of the time line. While the 10-year projection is a great thing, a great exercise to go through and should be continued and refined, none of us can begin to predict our economic environment 10-years out with a reasonable level of certainty.
While watching those 10-year numbers, we really ought to focus our attention more in the area 3 to 5 years out. Some rational & intelligent people even suggest that a focus on our current positions (current account balances) and 2-3 year projections are adequate to drive immediate actions. Even that viewpoint shows some need for corrective action.
You’ve already covered one other major expense category- Personnel. Plus, we ought to quickly see how Chico’s expenses in various categories compares with other City’s (benchmarks). In big operations, that is typically how you find things that are askew – you find numbers at a significant disparity with where they should be. First, you gotta know where the expense ratios should be.
Another major category is that of existing revenue steams. That chart showing city revenue per capita, comparing Chico to other cities is very interesting. We should very quickly, better understand why Chico lags so many other Cities in revenue per capita within existing revenue streams. Among the first things a corporate auditor focuses on is: missing revenue.
Plus, it is probably time to revisit the sales tax revenue sharing agreement with the County... I'm sure they'll be absolutely thrilled with that idea.
Posted by: Mark Sorensen at August 10, 2007 02:55 PM
Tempra,
Thanks for posting, I'm glad you found something of interest in my blog. It's a very difficult thing to do.
On the man stuff, I'm just being true to form. But believe me, I am much less of a guy than some of my friends. For example, I have one friend that drives a Harley and a Backhoe. That guy could walk out his front door in a dress and still have more of "guy-cred" than me. I guess my point is, I could be a lot worse.
Plus talking about science fiction makes me an automatic geek.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at August 10, 2007 10:53 PM
Mark,
You are correct. There are a hundred ways to look at it, all have some value in helping to understand the problem. You could also discuss the budget with all payroll costs removed. The existing deficit that Jones describes as $56 million is important. And it can be discussed separately.
I agree we should be looking at where existing revenue went, and why. And we probably shouldn't be signing union contracts until we've discussed the financial situation openly.
But I think there is a problem when the city staff throw a budget number out, and it get's reported as THE budget deficit. Then you find out that it doesn't include growth in police or fire staff. Police and fire staff costs are a huge part of our existing costs. They have to grow to follow the growth of the community and provide for "unmet needs". So how can we be having a real budget discussion by tabling those issues?
That's the problem I have, but I'm not a budget expert, just someone trying to get questions answered.
CI: No on the retina, but not a bad guess.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at August 10, 2007 11:04 PM
Gregg,
Try again compadre.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at August 10, 2007 11:25 PM
How about the paw of an albino Bengal Tiger, which may be the last thing you ever see if you invade Durham?
Posted by: Gregg Payne at August 11, 2007 10:00 AM
Absolutely true!!!!! ‘Tis merely a forecast built upon a long series of assumptions about the future.
.... I spent nearly a decade in management of a couple of fortune 10 companies and learned first hand that financial statements, budgets and forecasts are merely interesting anecdotal information! Nothing more.
If you don’t have a high level of familiarity with what went into their creation – you’re toast…. You can be significantly misled…. As has been demonstrated by the melt-down of some city and county finances, and of some corporations.
Posted by: Mark Sorensen at August 11, 2007 10:38 AM
Posted by: Mark Sorensen at August 11, 2007 11:18 AM
Mark,
Not only is that the longest URL I've ever seen, but showing us the inside of an eardrum is just a little gross.
The CI Challenge was a baboon's butt (much more clean than a human ear). I figured I'd call this one and claim a win for myself.
Also, Gregg was starting to hedge around animal body parts and I'm sure he was a comment or two away from guessing monkey butt.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at August 11, 2007 06:31 PM
Actually I don't think I would have ever gone there. It doesn't look like any of your other readers surf babboonophile porn sites either. (not that there's anything wrong with that)
Posted by: Gregg Payne at August 12, 2007 09:04 AM
