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February 15, 2008
Shooting Fish In a Barrel?
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| Image: Representation of immediate debris
field result from January 2007 Chinese anti-satellite test. The upcoming attempt to shoot down a crippled spy satellite highlights significant issues for America and the world. The satellite was recently placed in orbit, is unresponsive, unrepairable, and will plow into the atmosphere within few weeks if left alone. It also contains a full tank of gas. Not regular gas, but people killing gas, Hydrazine. Chances are the whole thing would burn up on re-entry, but some concern exists that the gas tank could survive and get dispersed over a populated area. So the military is going to try and shoot it down with a modified missile defense system. Aegis Cruisers will take as many as three shots at the satellite from the Northern Pacific sometime in the next couple of weeks. The satellite is traveling at 22,000 miles an hour, and the intercepting missile will attempt a kinetic kill. That means no explosion, just two really fast things hitting each other. I hope the military finds success, because blowing up satellites is a dangerous business. The Chinese launched an anti-satellite weapon against one of their aging weather satellites in 2007. It was a success in that it destroyed the satellite and surprised the world by displaying a capacity no other nation had. It was a failure in that it left ~2500 pieces of debris in place of the satellite. Each of those is a deadly projectile to anything else in orbit. China might be expected to attack U.S. satellites in a conflict over Taiwan. One article posed the question "Could the Chinese cripple U.S. military effectiveness with an anti-satellite attack?". The resulting answer was no (see "How China Loses the Coming Space War"). I'm sure other opinions exist, but the article makes what seem like valid points. Knocking down satellites requires the repositioning of assets over a large land area, a lot of technology, and cooperation from that little thing called physics. Unlike the rest of the world the U.S. has tremendous redundancy in its space systems, so even a perfect performance by the Chinese would not cripple our country's technology. Beyond military assets the U.S. can use commercial systems. In fact something like 80% of satellite use in Iraq for military purposes comes through commercial systems operated by U.S. corporations. A space war attempting to remove U.S. space dominance would have one very real effect. It would fill the orbit with so much debris that future space travel would be much more dangerous, and potentially impossible. Weapons aren't new to space. In the 1970's the Russians launched three manned missions to the Almaz spy station. The station had a cannon mounted to the bottom of it. You just point the station and fire. The cannon was never tested while manned since they weren't sure if it would tear the station apart. It was fired once remotely (see recent Nova broadcast Astrospies for more on this). The military seems to be taking some dramatic chances with the planned shooting down of the failed spy satellite. They could miss it completely, making our anti-missile system less of a deterrent. They could scatter the satellite debris into orbit causing problems for everyone. On the other hand they could hit it and all the pieces could evaporate during re-entry, which is the plan. But that would probably happen if they just left it alone. The attempt to shoot down a satellite is an interesting event with high-stakes ramifications. It can be seen as part of a cold war developing between China and the U.S. in safeguarding or eliminating space assets. While not as engaging a topic as school budgets, or city phone surveys, this is a story that has caught my interest. Image Below: Chinese satellite debris field in red with International Space Station orbit in green. The result of a single attack on a satellite. |
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CI Challenge: Can you guess what it is? Winner: Anthony Watts, master of all things spacey and sciency, as well as expert on Brazilian naming conventions. See comments below for the answer. |
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Posted by Lon at February 15, 2008 09:02 AM
Comments
CI CHallenge looks like solar array panels on a satellite. Possibly the satellite that is going to be shot down over the next few weeks.
Also, just to note, the satellite is the size of a school bus, so there is a distinct possibility that it would not burn up in the atmosphere, and possibly break up during re-entry and pieces could smash into cities killing people. Like the first episode of "Dead Like Me" where the main girl gets hit by the falling toilet seat from the de-comm space station. I'm addicted to that show right now. It's good.
Posted by: TrevHastings at February 15, 2008 10:35 AM
CIC: satellite solar panels, though, I suspect that you're looking for a more specific answer...
There are some important differences between that moronic action of Chinese blowing up their weather satellite, and the possible attempt at breaking up the US satellite….
Geosynchronous satellites orbit at 22,240 miles above the earth.
The Chinese weather satellite was in a stable low earth orbit at 500 miles above the earth when it was destroyed.
The US spy satellite is in a decaying orbit, and will be down around 150 miles abouve the earth when it (hopefully) gets broken up into pieces…. Orbits decay fairly rapidly by the time you get down to 100 miles.
Posted by: Mark Sorensen at February 15, 2008 10:48 AM
Trevor,
I'll have to check that show out.
There is a distinct possibility that the U.S. will miss the satellite. This is an extremely difficult task, and if the military is being up-front with information, they are havng to re-write the Aegis control software to do this.
This is a really bold move that will publicly test a missile deterrant technology. And the end result may still be parts of a satellite hitting the earth. However, I think this is much less about that, and much more about the Chinese and their test last year.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at February 15, 2008 11:13 AM
CIC - Skylab, which also came down. Somebody in Brazil where most of the debris landed named their newborn after it.
On another note, I caught NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) with their pants down around their ankles today:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/14/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-51/
Posted by: Anthony at February 15, 2008 11:15 AM
It occurs to me that the bigger concern might not be hydrazine, but that some sensitve equipment deep inside the bus sized spy satellite might survive the fall, and fall into the wrong hands.
The poisonous hydrazine makes a good cover excuse, but I'll point out there have been other rocket boosters etc that have come down with hydazine in them and there was no urgency to intervene then.
From Wikipedia: Hydrazine is highly toxic and dangerously unstable, especially in the anhydrous form. Symptoms of acute exposure to high levels of hydrazine in humans may include irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat, dizziness, headache, nausea, pulmonary edema, seizures, coma, and it can also damage the liver, kidneys, and central nervous system. The liquid is corrosive and may produce dermatitis from skin contact in humans and animals. Effects to the lungs, liver, spleen, and thyroid have been reported in animals chronically exposed to hydrazine via inhalation. Increased incidences of lung, nasal cavity, and liver tumors have been observed in rodents exposed to hydrazine.
Posted by: Anthony at February 15, 2008 11:49 AM
Anthony,
I completely ignored that aspect of the shoot down attempt. But you're right, it's a new satellite, and since they don't know where pieces of it could end up, they may be wanting to ensure the pieces that fall are little tiny pieces.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at February 15, 2008 11:54 AM
Lon, if you decide to rent Dead like me, or borrow it from someone like I did, be careful, as it's one of those HBO/Showtime shows that allows for more harsh language than most TV shows. So if your watching it with your son beware of the occasional ear closer.
and Anthony is right, it is Skylab.
http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/history/skylab/skylab.jpg
bummer.
Posted by: TrevHastings at February 15, 2008 11:56 AM
I was on my first backpacking trip ever when Skylab came down. We drove up from the Bay Area to Lassen National Forest, and hiked for a week. I was 12. I remember hoping that it didn't hit my house.
Lon
Posted by: Lon at February 15, 2008 01:06 PM
I love the Lassen Nat'l Forest. Especially the thousand lakes area. I try to schedule a backpacking trip to a lake in that area at least once every summer. Nothing like not bathing for a week to feel alive!
Posted by: TrevHastings at February 15, 2008 02:18 PM