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    <title>Butte, Glenn, Tehama Counties: Your Local Perspective</title>
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    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009-06-09:/forecast/60</id>
    <updated>2009-01-25T20:06:56Z</updated>
    <subtitle>A local perspective from community and business members.</subtitle>
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<entry>
    <title>Buy Local, By All Means, But...</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/2009/01/buy-local-by-all-means.html" />
    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009:/forecast//60.11814</id>

    <published>2009-01-25T17:27:59Z</published>
    <updated>2009-01-25T20:06:56Z</updated>

    <summary>Unfortunately, the true economic benefits of buy local programs is often greatly exagerated.  An article in the SF Chronicle (1/4/09) cited a report by Civic Economics.  To quote the SF Chronicle, &quot;It found that dollars spent at independent businesses yielded nearly three times more local economic benefit than those spent at chain competitors, and created about 80 percent more jobs.&quot;   So in this argument, a national chain business (say Starbucks or Trader Joes) with 10 employees is equal to a locally owned business with 18 employees, and the locally owned store has three times the economic impact on the community.   An e-mail I received from a regional chamber of commerce (not Chico) stated that a dollar spent in a local business circulated 17 times before leaving the community.  (Obsolutely false.) </summary>
    <author>
        <name>Center for Economic Development</name>
        <uri>http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Regional Economic Development" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>Over the past twenty years there have thousands of communities around the country who have embraced the concept of "Buy Local" goods and services.  (I recall Butte County had a buy local program back in the 1980s.)  The core concept here is that buying from local stories or service providers (especially locally owned), rather than from stores who may be from outside the local area (owners from outside the local area).   The idea is great at first glance, and can be an outstanding way to grow local entrepreneurs and protect the environment (goods are produced locally, versus shipped from hundreds if not thousands of miles away, thus a smaller carbon footprint).   Furthermore, most locally produced goods do not require as many if any preservatives, which is always a plus.  (For more information on the buy local argument, see: <a href="http://www.livingeconomies.org/">http://www.livingeconomies.org/</a> )</p>

<p><br />
</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>Benefits Often Exaggerated</strong><br />
Unfortunately, the true economic benefits of buy local programs is often greatly exagerated.  An article in the SF Chronicle (1/4/09) cited a report by Civic Economics.  To quote the SF Chronicle, "It found that dollars spent at independent businesses yielded nearly three times more local economic benefit than those spent at chain competitors, and created about 80 percent more jobs."   So in this argument, a national chain business (say Starbucks or Trader Joes) with 10 employees is equal to a locally owned business with 18 employees, and the locally owned store has three times the economic impact on the community.   An e-mail I received from a regional chamber of commerce (not Chico) stated that a dollar spent in a local business circulated 17 times before leaving the community.  (Obsolutely false.) </p>

<p>Other gross assumptions in their economic analysis:  Local Entrepreneurs spend all profits locally.  While some do, many spend profits elsewhere .  Many have homes in Lake Almanor, Lake Tahoe, on the coast in Monterey or Fort Bragg, and as a result profits do leave the area.  Another assumption:  Local businesses pay higher salaries, which is not necessarily the case.  Another assumtion:  local business purchase all raw materials (coffee, food, office supplies, computers) from local producers, which is almost impossible, and rarely the case.</p>

<p><strong>Buying Local Movement Could Hurt Chico Regionally</strong><br />
An interesting phenomenon is the fact that many communities are embracing a buy local program, which is ironically hurting communities like Chico, as cusomers who were purchasing in Chico are now deciding to buy locally in Oroville, Paradise, Willows, Orland, Corning, Gridley, rather than Chico.   Chico draws retail spending from five local counties, with local small businesses and the City of Chico itself dependant upon the fact that Chico has been a retail trade hub.   The long term impact of reduced retail spending in Chico (as a result of other buy local programs) could mean that programs like th City of Chico support of the arts - e.g. Chico Performances for local schools - could be hurt.</p>

<p><strong>Darwin in Retail</strong><br />
I think a better way to select a business to patronize is based upon the quality of the service and quality of the product(s), based upon the price.  If you visit communities around the country, those with successful local economies have a local consumer base that <u>demand a high quality of service</u>.  Why is this important?  Because if the local consumers demand a high quality of service, then those consumers from outside the area will be drawn to these same successful small businesses with outstanding products or services.  Consider the successful local businesses (Sierra Nevada Brewery, Morning Thunder, and in the past - Corey's.) They are/were successful not because they are local, but because they are Good!  So good, in fact, that you refer friends and family from out of town to go there.   Would you do the same for a local business that had, for example, poor service, just because the business was local?</p>

<p><strong>Potential Arguments for Buy Local</strong><br />
There are instances when buy local program have their merit.  When a business is first starting, the owners are often still refining the quality of their products, services and operations.  This "shake-out" period is an outstanding opportunity for the local community to support a local business, and help the business to refine their "product."  These emerging businesses are vunerable, and need a conducive environment for growth (like a new born baby may need a incubator).  Supporting new businesses during the first few months is outstanding way to help.</p>

<p><strong>How Do We Help Build a Strong Local Economy</strong><br />
Again, by all means, buy local.  But buy local only if the business has a superior product or service.  If they don't have good quality of products/services, PROVIDE OPEN, FREQUENT FEEDBACK!!!   This is the best way to help.   If the entrepreneur is truely destin for success, then they will incorporate the feedback and improve.   If they do not incorporate good business practices, customers will find other solutions.  (Ironically, many national (non-local) businesses require their local operations to follow strict operations guidelines, and won't be able to adapt operations to local recommendations.  Locally owned small businesses are not constrained by these requirements.)</p>

<p><strong>Next Blog Topic:  Import Substitution versus Buy Local</strong></p>]]>
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<entry>
    <title>Profiles of Creativity</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/2009/01/profiles-of-creativity.html" />
    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009:/forecast//60.11770</id>

    <published>2009-01-21T09:58:09Z</published>
    <updated>2009-01-21T10:00:02Z</updated>

    <summary>About 5-8 years ago, Bruce Jans prepared a number of outstanding profiles of locally &quot;creative&quot; artists who contribute to the community through their art. These profiles have been made available online through the Artoberfest website (click here to launch). The...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Center for Economic Development</name>
        <uri>http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Regional Economic Development" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/">
        <![CDATA[<p>About 5-8 years ago, Bruce Jans prepared a number of outstanding profiles of locally "creative" artists who contribute to the community through their art.  These profiles have been made available online through the <a href="http://www.artoberfest.org/content/view/103/62/">Artoberfest</a> website (<a href="http://www.artoberfest.org/content/view/103/62/">click here to launch</a>).  The 2 minute videos are outstanding profiles of regional artists, including performance artists.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/Creativesprit/creative_spirit_titles.jpg"><img alt="creative_spirit_titles.jpg" src="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/Creativesprit/creative_spirit_titles-thumb.jpg" width="250" height="188" /></a></p>

<p><br />
The act of creating these profiles itself is a form of creative art.   More on Bruce Jans is available by <a href="http://www.procam41.com/index.html">clicking here </a>.</p>]]>
        
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</entry>

<entry>
    <title>When will the Retail Bleeding Stop?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/2009/01/when-will-the-retail-bleeding-1.html" />
    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009:/forecast//60.11740</id>

    <published>2009-01-20T11:15:00Z</published>
    <updated>2009-01-20T12:00:01Z</updated>

    <summary>Over the past six months we&apos;ve witnessed a large number of retailers falling victim to the current economic crisis; the most recent victim is Circuit City. While much of the decline in retail spending can be tied to the economic...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Center for Economic Development</name>
        <uri>http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Economy" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Over the past six months we've witnessed a large number of retailers falling victim to the current economic crisis; the most recent victim is Circuit City.  While much of the decline in retail spending can be tied to the economic crisis, another driving force is a retail marketplace which has outpaced consumer earnings.  Over the past 10 years, many consumers have been spending beyond their means.  For the past 50 years, consumer savings rates have declined to almost zero.  Consumers have also been racking up more and more debt, satisfying their desires for immediate gratification through goods and services by using credit cards, or pulling equity out of homes which are often already heavily leveraged.  </p>

<p>Obviously this type of spending was not sustainable.  We've known that house bubble had to burst.  We just didn't anticipate it would burst with the banks and stock market.</p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><strong>A short list of recent closures (store numbers in brackets)</strong><br />
Ann Taylor (117) <br />
Movie Gallery (378) <br />
Sprint/Nextel (125) <br />
Ethan Allen (12) <br />
Dell (140) <br />
Friedmans (120) <br />
Pier 1 (25) <br />
Sigrid Olsen (54) <br />
Talbots Kids/Mens (78) <br />
Home Depot (15) <br />
Eddie Bauer (29)<br />
GAP (85)<br />
Footlocker (140) <br />
Bombay (all 384 stores)<br />
Disney (98) <br />
Macy's (11) <br />
JC Penney (scaling back)<br />
Lowes (scaling back) <br />
Sharper Image (184) <br />
Wilson Leather (160) <br />
Pep Boys (31) <br />
Pacific Sunwear / PacSun (154 Demo stores) <br />
Zales (105) <br />
Cache (20)<br />
Lane Bryant (40)<br />
KB Toys (356)<br />
Dillards (26)<br />
Fashion Bug (100) <br />
CompUSA (all stores) <br />
Linens 'N Things (all 371 stores) <br />
Mervyn's (all 149 stores) <br />
Club Libby Lu (Saks owned) (all 78 stores) <br />
Steve & Barry's (all 173 stores) <br />
Sergio Rossi (all standalone US stores) <br />
Office Depot (126 stores) <br />
Rite Aid (181 stores)</p>

<p>So to answer the question, when will the retail bleeding stop, we must look at the number of retailers a community can support.   In the recent past, retailers have expected continuous growth in consumer spending.  Now, as consumers tighten their spending behavior, competition among retailers and service sector (restaurants, hair dressers, etc.) is likely to increase drammatically.  The short term news is fewers retailers, lost jobs, and shuttered store fronts.  In the long term, the stores who survive will be stronger, and will have a broader consumer base upon whom to draw.</p>

<p>Another pattern we've witnesses over the past 8 years has been an ever increasing number of communities surrounding major retail centers (Chico, Yuba City, Redding, Sacramento) who have created their own retail centers.   Rather than losing retail sales to Chico, communities like Gridley, Oroville, Paradise, Orland, Willows and Corning, have been creating their own retail centers, building their retail sectors off the high levels of retail spending of local consumers.  How these retail centers perform over the next 2 years will depend greatly upon how aggressive they work to retail their customer base in their communities.  Over the past six months almost every community across the country has embraced a <strong>"Shop Local"</strong> strategy.  </p>

<p>How well communities are able to retain retail spending locally will also greatly influence the health of local governments.   Many municipalities have become dependant upon taxable sales income, and have not felt the full impact of declining retail spending.  </p>]]>
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<entry>
    <title>Arts and Economic Development</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/2009/01/arts-and-economic-development.html" />
    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009:/forecast//60.11751</id>

    <published>2009-01-19T09:51:52Z</published>
    <updated>2009-01-20T04:53:56Z</updated>

    <summary>During last week&apos;s Tri County Economic Forecast Conference, Randall Kempner referred to the importance of creativity. Specifically, he referred to the writings of Richard Florida, and his books which highlight the importance of attracting and retaining a talented workforce, and...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Center for Economic Development</name>
        <uri>http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Regional Economic Development" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/">
        <![CDATA[<p>During last week's <strong>Tri County Economic Forecast Conference</strong>, Randall Kempner referred to the importance of creativity.  Specifically, he referred to the writings of Richard Florida, and his books which highlight the importance of attracting and retaining a talented workforce, and the importance of communities that accept different perspectives and differing views.   (I highly recommend reading <u>The Rise of the Creative Class</u>, and <u>The Flight of the Creative Class</u>.)</p>

<p>Creativity is vital.  One important and often overlooked aspect of any community is the arts.  Last week the <strong>National Governor's Association</strong> released a new report highlighting the importance of the arts to community economic development.  The report, available online (<a href="http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/0901ARTSANDECONOMY.PDF">click here</a>) provides an outstanding portrait of the ways in which the arts play an important role in supporting regional economic development across America.</p>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>How has today&apos;s Economic Crisis impacted your spending?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/2009/01/how-has-todays-economic-crisis-1.html" />
    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009:/forecast//60.11738</id>

    <published>2009-01-18T09:44:10Z</published>
    <updated>2009-01-20T04:54:45Z</updated>

    <summary>Today&apos;s economic crisis has drammatically impacted consumer confidence. I&apos;d like to learn more about how the economic climate has changed your spending (if at all). Please click the link below to provide your feedback. After completing the survey, you&apos;ll be...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Center for Economic Development</name>
        <uri>http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Economy" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Today's economic crisis has drammatically impacted consumer confidence.  I'd like to learn more about how the economic climate has changed your spending (if at all).   Please click the link below to provide your feedback.  After completing the survey, you'll be provided with instant results for all survey participants.</p>

<p><a href="http://survey.constantcontact.com/poll/a07e2fx4gksfq1ushqq/start.html">Click here to take the survey.</a></p>]]>
        <![CDATA[<p><script type='text/javascript' language='JavaScript' src='http://survey.constantcontact.com/poll/a07e2fx4gksfq1ushqq/start.js?v=1&w=300'><br />
</script><noscript>JavaScript needs to be enabled for polling to work. <br />
<a href='http://www.constantcontact.com/survey/index.jsp?cc=ViraWidPOL'>Online Surveys</a> by Constant Contact.</p>]]>
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Today&apos;s Economic Outlook (presentation)</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/2009/01/todays-economic-outlook-presen.html" />
    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009:/forecast//60.11752</id>

    <published>2009-01-17T18:07:23Z</published>
    <updated>2009-01-18T18:15:31Z</updated>

    <summary>At the Tri County Economic Forecast Conference, Dr. Robert Eyler did an outstanding job of highlighting the factors affecting all of us at the national, state and local level. We look forward to hearing more from Dr. Eyler in the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Center for Economic Development</name>
        <uri>http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Economy" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/">
        <![CDATA[<p>At the Tri County Economic Forecast Conference, <strong>Dr. Robert Eyler </strong>did an outstanding job of highlighting the factors affecting all of us at the national, state and local level.  We look forward to hearing more from Dr. Eyler in the future; his dedication to supporting regional economies by reaching out to education business owners and elected officials is vital to helping us grow out of our current economic crisis.</p>

<p>Here is a copy of the presentation delivered by Dr. Eyler.   Building upon his formal presentation, Dr. Eylers response to questions highlighted his knowledge of the problems we face, and the actions necessary to build a strong North State economy.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/RobertEyler/RobertEyler.pdf">Download file</a></p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Back in Business</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/2009/01/back-in-business.html" />
    <id>tag:www.norcalblogs.com,2009:/forecast//60.11737</id>

    <published>2009-01-17T05:17:10Z</published>
    <updated>2009-01-17T05:33:35Z</updated>

    <summary>Consumer confidence is suffering as a result of a number of factors, including (1) the housing bubble (and the resulting decline in home values), (2) banking instability, and (3) stock market declines (including retirement, 401ks, college funds, etc). The resulting...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Center for Economic Development</name>
        <uri>http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Economy" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.norcalblogs.com/forecast/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Consumer confidence is suffering as a result of a number of factors, including (1) the housing bubble (and the resulting decline in home values), (2) banking instability, and (3) stock market declines (including retirement, 401ks, college funds, etc).  The resulting economic uncertainty is causing consumer to reduce spending, which is further causing local, regional and national retails to suffer.  Today's news about the demise of Circuit City is yet one more business falling victim to the economic decline.  We are likely to see more local businesses impacted by the reduced consumer spending.  The next business may be another restaurant, or one of the many older businesses that have become institutions in North State communities (I will not even suggest a name for fear of jinxing the business).</p>

<p>Like so many of you, I've been very busy with work and family, I haven't been taking the time to write on this blog (ok, I also misplaced the password to log in).   Well, I'm back.  I'll post new information, data, and articles on topics related to the regional economy, regional economic development and our current economic crisis.</p>

<p>I look forward to hearing from you through your comments.   </p>

<p>Dan</p>]]>
        
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