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January 10, 2006
Warning Signs When Nations are in Decline
Dale. writes.... "Interesting question; I would have to say that to date there have been very few global powers to speak of. I would argue that Persia, Greece, Rome, Great Britain and the United States are the only true nations which have ever truly held global power. One can make arguments for perhaps the Mongols or Spanish, but only the previous 5 have attained a position of unquestioned dominance at a point in time in world history. What strikes me as interesting is that out of the 5 only Persia had little or no democratic heritage. It would seem that the more representative the governments became the more preeminent their status grew. This is not a comparison of the governments within their respective systems, but a comparison between the different civilizations.
I would argue that nothing in history is for certain, only probable. History does show that to date no one nation has maintained global hegemony for more than say 300 years. But history does demonstrate that representative government’s i.e. free peoples do seem to dominate repressive government systems. This is not a hard and fast rule but a quick scan of history shows a definite pattern. One that Victor Hanson spells out well in his book “Carnage and Culture�.
I believe that the United States has the potential to stand the test of time where others have failed. Our combination of representative government, strong individual liberty, rule of law, coupled with geographic location, abundance of natural resources and a free market economy ensure that the US is in a strong position to dominate the world, technologically, economically and certainly militarily for the foreseeable future. I certainly wouldn’t want to trade places with any of the would be contenders.
Having said this, it is important to note that arrogance and overconfidence are key factors in the demise of great civilizations. I would also note that in the case of Rome and Greece it was not an outside power which struck a decisive blow to their dominance but the decay of their own systems which eventually eroded the foundations for their preeminence. Abraham Lincoln once commented that “… as a nation of free men we must endure forever or die by suicide.�
It would therefore seem that a nation in a position such as ours must be wary of the same two things that every other nation is. Threat from abroad and the moral decay of our populace. This is to say the watering down of those positions or stances which have made us great. As I do not see any emerging threat on the horizon to our military dominance, I would consider a lack of civic virtue to be the greatest threat to enduring US power.
Despite that patriotism and civic virtue appear to be waning in some areas, I see no emerging nation which can compete. I am therefore confident in US supremacy for some time to come." END
Posted by Post Scripts at January 10, 2006 09:01 PM