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June 11, 2006
House Elections - It's a Referendum on President
The November House elections may be a seen as a referendum on the president and his party. If the election were held today, the dems would probably gain up to 10 seats, not because they have the best agenda or they are the most loved, but because the GOP is losing ground due to their weak and uninspired leadership. Now add in the President's dangerously low poll numbers and this election could become more of a referendum on the President and his policies, least thats where I see the dems strategy heading.
Conservative America is hurting from the protracted ground action in Iraq. Bush's half measures on border control, huge deficit spending, gasoline prices, the Abramoff scandal that still threatens to expose more Congressmen, DeLay's unusual departure in the wake of charges, Duke Cunningham's admission of wrong doing, even the Plame Affair and Scooter Libby, these and more have taken a toll. 2006 has been a rough year for Bush and the GOP!
It's not always been their fault, but a good deal of their woes certainly are, for instance, despite having the Presidency, the Senate and the House, they've done ...
virtually zip, zero, nada in the way of any meaningful, creative and helpful legislation. Deficit spending has been astronomically high. The ports deal, infuriated Bush's own base and it made guys like Chucky Schummer look good? Chucky was right there standing up for conservatives, demanding we block the deal, while the Bush administration was all set too run it through? That was beyond weird! Now it comes out it was not just U.A.E., but there were financial links into Saudi Arabia; the whole deal was just setup a little too stealthy and that made Americans rightly suspicious. The ports deal was so out of character for Republicans, it still has people wondering what it was all about?
Next: Bush has had 5+ years to do something about the border problems and instead it seemed like his own base had to drag him kicking and screaming to a solution, even a half baked solution. The GOP Congress looks no better, they can't seem to get anything sensible passed to halt illegal immigration.
The democrats should have made enormous gains during all these GOP/Bush, missteps, corruption, ineptness, confusion and turmoil, but the Dem's were too caught up in Bush bashing and let key opportunities slip away. They were too focused on partisan politics, like selling the big lie that Bush was appointed not elected. The more they whined about that stuff the worse they looked. As a result, the Democrat leadership now has a serious image problem. People see them as being too radical and shady. The worst possible choice to head the DNC was Howard Dean! What were they thinking? Dean has done a lot of damage, even though lately has been muzzled.
To make it worse for the DNC, voters know the far left would rather see America go up in flames, if it meant hurting Bush and they really resent it. Absent responsible spokes people for the democrats, the fringe left like MOVEON.ORG, has been free to sound like the center. This creates a serious credibility problem, compounded by Hillary running towards the middle, trying too hard too be believable. All this doesn't play out well with a more conservative middle America and it's held the dems in check because they just don't get it. If they did, Dean would never have ascended to the run the DNC!
The Jack Abramoff scandal has touched them too, most recently with Congressman William Jefferson. The more Jefferson fights the charges the more honorable Duke Cunningham looks for quickly admitting his guilt. The Dems are living in the preverbal "glass house" while tossing stones at the GOP and this makes them sound incredibly disengenious when talking about the "culture of corruption", as if they were above it all.
The final challenge for the DNC is their track record for national security. Remember, Charlie Tree and the Chinese money? And how about both the nuclear and stealth secrets that went to China during Clinton's administration? And need I say, "Loral Space" and guidance system lost to the Chinese? People just don't trust the DNC when it comes to security and fighting terrorism and for good reasons.
God forbid, but should we get another terrorist attack on US soil, this will reverse the misfortunes for the GOP and they will remain solidly in control. Bush's poll numbers may be in the toilet, but at least people think he is aggressive on terrorism, in spite of the ports sale and that's put the GOP ahead of the DNC on the key issue of the 06 campaign. However, if we don't have such a landmark incident, the GOP is probably destined to lose at least 9 or 10 seats in Congress and they may eventually lose the Presidency, but they will likely not lose control of Congress this time around. If they trot out Al Gore again, forget what I said about the Presidency, the DNC might just as well have run Howard Dean again. Needless to say, there are a number of possibilities that could determine outcome in the next election and I've only touched on a few.
Democrats will need a net gain of 15 seats to win a majority. However, neither party has made a net gain of more than 10 House seats over the last 20 years. Should be very interesting election...hope you are registered to vote!
Posted by Post Scripts at June 11, 2006 09:19 AM
Comments
Re: Cunningham being an honorable person.
Tasker, You either misread or misunderstood what I said. Perhaps this site might be of some assistance? Good luck.
http://www.marin.cc.ca.us/~don/Study/7read.html
Posted by: Jack Lee at June 11, 2006 08:23 PM
Gee, Jack, thanks for hanging out the dirty laundry...in my mind it's right next to the rows and rows of dirty democrat laundry flapping in the breeze. 'n thar's the rub now, in't it?
I guess the only thing to do is move forward and watch for the fireworks. I keep reminding myself that I can't "expect" the people who represent me to be perfect, they're people, just like the rest of us. I support conservative principles. I care about and seek to promote those who share my views. The rest is just like the rest of life...messy!
A little "healthy" fear never hurt anybody. I'm careful when standing on the edge of a cliff, for instance, even though I don't particularly like heights. I stay aware of the dangers and watch for loose soil and rock and I warn others if I think it might be helpful. But if I want to see the view, it's worth the risk and I enjoy the freedom to choose. With liberals in charge of the "fear of heights issue" I'd be forced to stay home and look at pictures of the grand canyon, but only after I filled out three to three hundred forms, paid my fee, bought my license and purchased "cliff insurance" in case I sprain my back while viewing the pictures...oh, yeah, and I'd have to post notices in my family room warning visitors or family members of the hazards, not to mention being forced to share the pictures with (at least one other of each) persons of color, fat persons,"challenged" persons of various stripes or...fill in the blank. I'd also be informed in six languages about the evil people who are lucky enough to afford planes because they can fly over the canyon while we poor folk can't and that's why they should be taxed, and that kind of fear I can do without! (terrorists don't exist so that wouldn't even come up)
Posted by: Tina at June 11, 2006 10:28 PM
I would say President Bush has had a very tough 6 years. As far as the GOP being in trouble because of scandals, how many of them were trumped up then fully blown out of proportion by the liberal media?
The ports deal turned out to be just what I said it would be, all about nothing. The only reason it looked suspicious was because of people not bothering or not caring to gather and examine the facts of the deal. They were as usual, motivated by politics to make something of little consequence look sinister.
If I were President Bush, I would have rode roughshod over the GOP and ram-rodded (sp?) a very conservative agenda from day one. He should have told the Dems, "hey if you don't like it, win some elections." He did the wrong thing and played nice with the Left. I am still scratching my head over that one.
As far as the immigration mess goes, it has been ignored for so long, there is no simple, cheap fix for it. President Bush is fighting two wars with equally crazed opponents and he is doing a fine job of it. The fact that there have been no other attacks in the US is proof of that. Add to that how fractured and enraged the Left has become is more proof. Things are not as bad as they could be, we could be liberals, LOL!
Posted by: Toby Stahler at June 11, 2006 10:45 PM
Ever been fired from a job? It makes you angry doesn't it? In fact, it's not uncommon to hear that "getting fired" was the best thing that ever happened to them, because that anger can be a great motivator. This is human nature. Human nature is no different in politics, it's just on a bigger scale.
Historically, the GOP is at it's best when they are the underdog, fighting the good fight, making bold moves and capturing the imagination of the public as the minority party. This "eye of the tiger" is what got them in control of both houses and the presidency.
Well, that was then and this is now, and something has changed. Aside from the bold action on terrorism, the GOP went limp elswhere. I don't know if they were too distracted by the war on terrorism or if they were beaten down because their every move was scrutinized and criticised by angry, displaced democrats and their media friends that amplified any missteps and created scandals where none really existed.
The boldness that brought them to this high place began to fade, as the democrats, struggling to regain some of their traction, whined, cried and demanded, "we need a bi-partisan effort, we should be team players, it's all about fairness and sharing of power" all designed to play on the sympathies of the new, powerful and somewhat naive republican majority!
We saw dems stick it to Bush Sr., when they convinced him he needed to work with them and he raised taxes and it cost him re-election. On a smaller scale, that is happening every day in Congress now and it makes it look like the GOP has lost their way. And to a certain extent that would be true...the dems and the leftwing media undermining has taken it's toll and that's been reflected in the GOP's confidence and consequently their agenda.
A lot of the media created damage could have been minimized, if we had a "great communicator" in the White House, but we don't. Bush may be strong in a number of areas, but he is not a great communicator. Not even close and thats a shame...communication creates perception and perception creates reality at the voting booth.
That's why I think if the GOP lost a number of seats in November, it may not be all bad. It may be just the sobbering slap in the face that they need to get moving.
Beyond that, it's time for Congress to find a bold leader who CAN communicate and help Bush pull up his numbers...Newt Gingrich was the GOP's #1 communicator and that's the kind of "idea guy" the GOP needs to make a come back.
Posted by: Jack Lee at June 12, 2006 08:36 AM
Toby you're right, the media did a lot of damage to the GOP and maybe I should have emphasised this part even more. Because, this is definately part of the GOP image problem. It has also damaged America in our collective resolve to fight terrorism and that's the worst part.
The opposition rhetoric has never been more shrill and on the other side, we are the silent majority. That means we typically windup being bashed by libs who will say and do almost anything they can get away with, while Reps go meekly on the defensive. The libs can easily mount nationwide protest marches and what do we do? Maybe, write a terse letter to the editor?
We're just not real good at joining anything, it goes against the grain because we are very independant people. Most of us work for a living, so there's not a lot of free time to stage protests for the media.
Acting like a bunch of wild eyed revolutionary is a little too disturbing for conservatives, but not for every fringe idiot on the left; they do all sorts of wacky things to be in the media's spotlight...again, not our thing is it?
This is what we are up against.
Thank you for reminding everyone that much of the GOP woes are due to the Dems constantly tearing them down, making up rumors, scandals and obstructing their every move.
Posted by: Jack Lee at June 12, 2006 10:34 AM
Tasker, you said..."You mean those icons of meekness, Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and O'Reilly?" No, actually I was really thinking more of elected officials and party bosses, none of these people is an elected person or in even a position with the GOP and they are hardly typical conservatives, they are extraordinary people and I wish we had many thousands more like them.
Then you said, "You guys probably agree that those three poor basXXXs that committed suicide where engaged in 'asymetric warfare', don't you?"
Well, here's one I can at least agree in part with, they certainly were bas---s and I can think of much more to say about them too. However, as long as they are now dead, I really don't care what they were engaged in.
It would be a good day if many more of their murdering terrorists brothers would follow their example!
They should have been shot by firing squad a long time ago. For me, there really shouldn't be any question about it...if anyone signs on to be a terrorist to threaten Americans and my country, they deserve the firing squad, end of story, end of terrorist.
Don't EVEN look my way for sympathy because you won't be getting any, in fact I'll be only too happy to buy the bullets and volunteer to clean up the mess afterwards! Take em all out... Oooh rah!
Posted by: Jack Lee at June 12, 2006 08:55 PM
Tasker, The Klan? You think they belong in the conservative camp? Senator Byrd comes to mind, but now at least I understand your totally smug unwillingness to hear what others think, including Rush Limbaugh. Between your Klan image and the kool-aid thing you really don't have a chance of getting it, words and ideas don't penetrate that cr*p!
Your side leaves a trail of wounded, bloody and maimed. But like Pig Pen in the Charlie Brown strip, you are childishly unaware of the very real messes you leave trailing behind you as you continue on, tra la, in your dream worlds. And then there's always the Unabomber...but "he was soooo brilliant", said your media that his crimes didn't really count!
Geeez, do you suppose we could once and for all agree that total wack jobs exist on both sides and dispense with this ridiculous teeter totter game? Or are we having too much fun?
As for the coming elections, if we are defeated, we will have earned it, however, compounding one problem by electing a bigger one is hardly the answer to our woes. Hang in there gang, we're not done yet...and Palosiiiiiiiyikes in charge of the House? ARE YOU REALLY SO UPSET YOU'LL STAY HOME AND MAKE THAT HAPPEN?
Posted by: Tina at June 13, 2006 12:08 AM
Those "poor Bastxxxs". Well I already knew where his sympathies lay. Never a word of pride when our military succeeded, never a word of sympathy at an American casualty. Terrorists on the other hand rate a tear and a moment of silence maybe. Gee those "poor bastXXX. Maybe they beheaded someone for not attending morning prayers or maybe just beat a woman for allowing her burlap bag to slip from her face. They were all Al Qaieda fighting for the right to oppress. I always wondered at Taskers sense of things. Now I wonder even more.
Posted by: Ron Acevedo at June 13, 2006 07:30 AM
"Those "poor Bastxxxs"?" I was struck by this too. So Tasker, could you respond and clarify? You know exactly where I stand, couldn't make it any clearer. Where are you on terrorism?
My guess is you really can't give us a clear and simple simple answer. I'll be you will say the question involves too many unknown circumstances and everybody is different. Some terrorists may have good motives, some may have bad motives. And I'll even venture further, I'll bet your bottom line is, you value ALL human life and you don't believe in killing anybody... or maybe you will fall back on this..."one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter", right? I bet I got pretty close!
Posted by: jack Lee at June 13, 2006 10:33 AM
The Klan, Taskr, belong in the Hitler camp, You know, that socialist tyrant he comes close to your views the order goes something like this linearly:
(Communist-Marxist-Facist-Socialist)---Democrat----------------------------------------Republican.
Your "wounded bloody and maimed" are the poor souls lost to drugs, gangs, aids, etc. because progressives never met a rule they didn't think should be broken or rebelled against, never saw a victim they wouldn't "help" to death, and never saw a war they would't obstruct thereby causing it to linger resulting in even more death.
The Unabomber was a lefty on par with the abortion clinic nutcases that you claim are great examples of folks on the right. Instead of condemning both the left "desriminates". Abortion clinic bombers are evil...the Unabomber was brilliant...poor guy.
Holy Cow...or pig if it suits. I just realized who (name deleted ) was. Sorry guys, I'm a bit late on this one. He really thought the Constitution applied to terrorists? I thought he was smarter than that...no, really!
Posted by: Tina at June 15, 2006 10:44 PM