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October 17, 2006

North Korea's Tactical Ability

This came from the comments section by poster Nick F., I believe his comments give a uniquely qualfied perspective to this subject. So, here you go:

"It has been interesting to see all the reporting, speculation, predictions etc. etc. surrounding the new developments concerning North Korean capabilities and intentions. My first inclination is to just redirect everyone back to Jacks post if you want a comprehensive analysis, but since I can't seem to keep from giving my opinion, I've decided to write about what I have observed and experienced.

I noticed the other day, that as the news was reporting about the latest developments concerning NK's nuclear weapons development; they mentioned that NK started their nuclear weapons program in 2002. The only way a professional journalism outlet could air something that absurd, was if it was calculated. They certainly didn't get that figure from any reputable government agency, which has been well aware of North Korean nuclear weapons program dating back to the beginning of the second term of the Clinton Administration. Of course reporting facts about North Koreas development of WMD would be more harmful to Clintons legacy rather than GW's administration, and why would the media let the facts get in the way of a good story.

So North Korea has Nuclear weapons...maybe. This is certainly a security concern for the United States, but it is a much larger concern for South Korea and Japan. So for those of you who are wondering why we haven't dedicated more time and attention to North Korea, there is part of your answer.

North Korea is run by a demagogue to be sure. I am not convinced however, that the man is insane. North Korea only produces about 65-70% of the food stuffs it requires to feed its population. Extorting money from the west and more closely from westernized Asian markets like their rich neighbors to the south and east has become their economic strategy of choice. In addition to the benefits that North Korea enjoys from blackmailing their neighbors, China enjoys the prestige they receive by constantly intervening on behalf of their miserable little lap dog. Isn't it funny how every time North Korea decides to cause trouble for the region, the two chief beneficiaries are always South Korea in the from of economic concessions, and China in the way of political concessions.

The potential for North Korea to hand off nuclear weapons to terrorists is far more limited and suspect than say Iran. So I for one believe their testing to be centered around their desire to acquire concessions. And why shouldn't they expect them? Clinton was more than happy to give into their demands in the 90's. And after being shown up by a tin pot dictator he was hailed by this countries media as some sort of diplomatic wiz. Forget the fact that North Korea reneged on the deal before the ink was wet on the contract. In true Neville Chamberlain fashion we appeased a militant dictator, then low and behold he didn't live up to his end of the bargain. We remember Chamberlain as a sub standard politician. I wonder how this misstep by the Clinton administration will eventually be remembered by historians.

Jack made good comparisons of North Korea and South Korean equipment. Now admittedly, I havent ever worked with the North Korean Army, but I have had an opportunity to train with elements of the South Korean military. In addition to this I have had a chance to see much of the South Korean portion of the peninsula. I have also done a bit of research of each military, their capabilities, and potential strategic goals of a North Korean invasion.

Based on these considerations it is my opinion that the North simply doesn't stand a chance against the South with, or without US assistance in a prolonged military action. Even with the benefit of nuclear weapons and the potential devastation they could wrought on the south Korean population, North Korea simply does not, in and of itself posses the economy, or the allies to fight the type of war that would be necessary to defeat the south Korean military and subdue her population.

The Korean peninsula illustrates probably better than any other world example the superiority of free enterprise and democratic government with the rule of law over a centrally planned, despotism. Because of the economic differences South Korea posses the ability to replace losses far faster and efficiently than the North could. I wouldn't want to be any where near the opening barrage of a North Korean Invasion, but I do not believe they would even be able to take Seoul. North Korean Supply lines would come under constant attack and they simply would not be able to adequately provide for the massive army they would undoubtedly send over the border.

Even the idea of North Korea actually utilizing nuclear weapons to achieve this goal is somewhat in question. While their is little doubt that North Korea would use nuclear weapons as a last ditch effort to protect the collapse of the regime, it is far less certain that they would use such a weapon to devastate the economic center they wish to possess.

I'd be interested in hearing other points.

Maybe Libby can flip out again, that was amusing. Once again she shows a careful combination of ignorance tempered by an extreme arrogance, which suggests that the research she has conducted is comprised of flipping through the political section of Rolling Stone Magazine."

Posted by Post Scripts at October 17, 2006 12:22 PM

Comments

Nick: "They certainly didn't get that figure from any reputable government agency, which has been well aware of North Korean nuclear weapons program dating back to the beginning of the second term of the Clinton Administration."

Nice try. Thirty years. NK has been working toward nuclear capability since the Carter/Reagan years. A case can be made, however, for the statement that NK was not all hot and bothered to blow something up until that ham-fisted, pea-brained, Bible-thumper in the White House started spewing all that extraordinarily offensive "Axis of Evil" horsepucky. That would have been 2002.

Nick: "Isn't it funny how every time North Korea decides to cause trouble for the region, the two chief beneficiaries are always South Korea in the form of economic concessions, and China in the way of political concessions."

Name one. And what bothers you so much about China taking a geopolitical hand to issues in their neck of the woods? Why does this threaten you?

Nick: "The potential for North Korea to hand off nuclear weapons to terrorists is far more limited and suspect than say Iran."

This is a serious and legitimate concern. Which makes you wonder why Rummy and his Swiss cohorts want to build two more nuke plants in NK? Aren't we just making a mess we will eventually have to clean up? Don't make no sense, do it? Unless you're makin' money on the deal.

Jack: "it is my opinion that the North simply doesn't stand a chance against the South ...."

Indeed. So why the global tizzy? ... you might ask yerself. They have dubious conventional capability. They use the bomb and they're toast. They have to know this.

Maybe they are defending themselves against invasion. Did you ever think of that? There was news today about NK preparing for a second test. They gotta prove to us that they can really do it.

On the other hand, you can read the psychology here as downright childish. Maybe we should just timeout the nation. How would you go about such a thing? SK has already tightened up their border. I guess we will blockade them. As we now know, it was quite effective against Saddam.

Nick: "Maybe Libby can flip out again, that was amusing. Once again she shows a careful combination of ignorance tempered by an extreme arrogance, ...."

What's this we got now? Preemptive abuse? You crack me up. Truly, you do.

Posted by: Libby at October 17, 2006 01:29 PM

Libby, it is possible that in Kim Jong-il's paranoid mind, he could believe that the US is going to invade NK.

The invasion of Iraq could have been all the evidence he needed to believe this, even though the circumstance are vastly different and from our side, we see an NK invasion as an absurdity.

Posted by: Jack at October 17, 2006 03:22 PM

Jack: "... even though the circumstance are vastly different and from our side, we see an NK invasion as an absurdity."

I dunno. If somebody with a big fat army called me an Axis of Evil, I'd be worried. I mean, especially if one of the Axes DID GET INVADED !!!
Get the blinders off, guy.

Posted by: Libby at October 17, 2006 05:49 PM

Libby, Please re-read what I said above. You have misunderstood. I acknowledged what you said and agreed. No blinders needed, I understand completely.
Guess you are so used to disagreeing with me you did it automatically...thats funny. lol

Posted by: Jack at October 17, 2006 06:30 PM

"Because of the economic differences South Korea posses the ability to replace losses far faster and efficiently than the North could."

Nick and Jack, If it came to this, wouldn't China come to the aid of NK with supplies and manpower, especially if we helped SK? What about Russia?

Posted by: Tina at October 17, 2006 07:50 PM

Bush waived the requirement that North Korea allow inspectors to ensure it has not hidden away any weapons-grade plutonium from the original reactors, previously required by Clinton.

Apr 3 2002 BBC News:

The US Government has announced that it will release $95m to North Korea as part of an agreement to replace the Stalinist country's own nuclear programme, which the US suspected was being misused.

Under the 1994 Agreed Framework an international consortium is building two proliferation-proof nuclear reactors and providing fuel oil for North Korea while the reactors are being built.

In releasing the funding, President George W Bush waived the Framework's requirement that North Korea allow inspectors to ensure it has not hidden away any weapons-grade plutonium from the original reactors.

President Bush argued that the decision was "vital to the national security interests of the United States".


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/1908571.stm

Posted by: Jim at October 18, 2006 06:45 AM

Jim, sadly, you're right and this travesty wasn't done for clever and devious reasons that would somehow advantage us, it wasn't even done for corruption and reward, which I could almost understand if some schmuck ran off with millions...it was done as a gross act of stupidity.

Don't ever expect to hear, "We made a mistake" from those responsible, expect instead to hear spin. This is not a democrat or a republican phenomena...it's a Washington tradition!

...yet one more reason to vote em all out on a regular basis!!!!

Posted by: Jack at October 18, 2006 08:31 AM

"A case can be made, however, for the statement that NK was not all hot and bothered to blow something up until that ham-fisted, pea-brained, Bible-thumper in the White House started spewing all that extraordinarily offensive "Axis of Evil" horsepucky. That would have been 2002".

If NK wasn't all hot and bothered why did they break the treaty immediately after signing it with Clinton and company? Clinton gave them food to feed their army so why was NK afraid then.
Libbys arguement is empty rhetoric.

Posted by: Ron Acevedo at October 18, 2006 11:59 AM

I agree with Mr. Acevedo.

Posted by: AndrewKL at October 18, 2006 12:05 PM

Jack: "Guess you are so used to disagreeing with me you did it automatically...thats funny. lol"

Oh, dear. You got me.

Posted by: Libby at October 18, 2006 01:08 PM

Nick, I said they've been working on it for thirty years, which is a fact, and which does include the Clinton years. Why do you feel you have to make such an issue of the Clinton years? For a distraction perhaps? A distraction from the decided ambiguities in Bush's NK policy? Don't you think it's peculiar that we're giving money to, and making money in, a country we propose to make war on? This is what we have to deal with now. How are we going to deal with this? Is BushCo competent to deal with this? Come on?

Posted by: Libby at October 18, 2006 01:31 PM

Addressing Libby directly in debate is a fools errand. She has suckered me into it several times only to disengage, when she realised she was in way over her head.

As far as when exactly NK started their Nuclear program, I will admit I am unsure. I guess what I was referring to with the second Clinton administration was the fact that they directly appeased NK and made it profitable to extort economic concessions from the US.

For anyone wondering about China benefiting from NK antics, one can look to military equipment sales to Tiawan. Tiawan has been asking to buy a form of the Aegis class cruiser which the Chinese are dead set against. During one of the NK break downs the Chinese used their "considerable" influence over the NK regieme to "cool" the situation down, and low and behold the United States ended up selling Taiwan a down graded version of the Aegis Cruiser. For soe one with as wacky as conspiratorial theorys as Liby has about our own freely elected government, I wonder why she seems to feel that the intentions of a repressive oligarchy are not suspect. Especially when it is so obvious that China possess the ability to manipulate those situations to their advantage. Now Im sure there may have been other considerations involved,but to ignore the coincidence is well...something Libby would do.

Tina I dont believe that China would provide the same sort of support that they did in the Korean war. To do so would put them in direct conflict with the United States which is not something they want. Their own economic considerations would most likely drive them toward a position of relative moderation, rather than risk open war with their most influential trading partner.

Now,did they develop the bomb for fear of invasion. Well if you live in the Bay area you are proably inclined to believe that the United States is an agressive imperialist nation, if however you are a national leader and live just about anywhere else on the planet earth you know the real deal. If the US really wanted to invade NK there is nothing to stop us, period.

Certain people like to make the claim that rhetoric is what caused a tin pot dictatorship to seek nuclear weapons. But if that argument is true, and Libby has for the first time in my recolection provided accurate dates and historical information, then what exactly did Jimmy Carter say that provoked NK to start actively seeking Nukes?

The bottom line is every nation would rather have them than not, but certain nations simply shouldnt, and I believe NK to be one of those that probably shouldnt.

I do find it interesting that when China does shady things to improve their situation they are simply taking care of buisness, but when we do it, we are horrible exploiters and imperialists. Its not so much tat I want liberals to like America better than everyone else, I think i would just like them to apply the same stadards when comparring our reasoning and motives with those of communist nations who repress freedom of speech. Probably to much to ask from some.

To be perfectly honest I would like to know what Libbys probelm is with the actual analysis I gave of the situation. No where in my assesment did I say that Bush has handled the situation perfectly, I simply felt it was important to point out that the main stream media has decided to be less honest than Liby and claim that NK has been working on Nukes since 2002. Now if even Liby took the time to do a litte research and find out that NK active attempts to gain nuk capabilities didnt start during the Bush administration, you would think that a major network news agency would do the same, unless of course their the ones with the agenda.

In the end it strikes me as obvious that NK having Nuclear weapons gives them a great deal at the bargaining table,but relatively little in the way of national defense. They got what they wanted from clinton when they agreed to stop building the bomb, they are now hoping to get more from the threat of having it. Extortion is a dirty game, and once you give into it, its hard to get out.

But if Liby wants to chalk this up as poor repressive Kim simply wanting to defend his poor starving people from the rthless Americans, ok, I mean after all, isnt that the sort of propaganda that people like Kim count on efore embarking on these little quests?

Posted by: Nick Freitas at October 19, 2006 07:18 PM

Nick: “As far as when exactly NK started their Nuclear program, I will admit I am unsure.�

Me right. He wrong. Tee Hee.

Nick: I guess what I was referring to with the second Clinton administration was the fact that they directly appeased NK and made it profitable to extort economic concessions from the US.

Well, didn’t BushCo just hand them a big wad of cash? Isn’t BushCo building power plants for them? Why are Clinton’s “carrots� reckless, and BushCo’s “carrots� not? It’s just all pointless partisan horsepucky.

Nick: “For anyone wondering about China benefiting from NK antics, one can look to military equipment sales to Tiawan.�

You know, I don’t think the Chinese government was all that happy about this. Being as Taiwan considers itself not to be a part of China. And since, if China tried to force the issue, that very weaponry would probably be used against it. The fact is that China does not need economic concessions from us. The situation is, unhappily, entirely the other way ‘round. The Chinese government quits lending us money ... worse yet, sells our dollars ... and, oh, honey ... we is toast.

Nick: “Tina I dont believe that China would provide the same sort of support that they did in the Korean war. To do so would put them in direct conflict with the United States ... their most influential trading partner.�

“Influential� nothing. We’re a sponge. A great, big, fat, WalMart-ridden sponge for all that they produce. It’s a dangerously one-sided relationship.

Nick: “Now, did they develop the bomb for fear of invasion. Well if you live in the Bay area you are proably inclined to believe that the United States is an agressive imperialist nation, ...�

Hey, all I do is listen to the shrub’s bombastic idiocy ... “Axis of Evil� ...

Nick: “if however you are a national leader and live just about anywhere else on the planet earth you know the real deal. If the US really wanted to invade NK there is nothing to stop us, period.�

Nonsense, the bomb is a splendid deterrent. Worked for the Soviets, works for us, India, Pakistan. You are a reckless boy. I’m glad you’re not in charge.

Nick: “The bottom line is every nation would rather have them than not, but certain nations simply shouldnt, and I believe NK to be one of those that probably shouldnt.�

Indeed, neither Iran nor NK should have the bomb. But somehow, both of them have gotten it into their collective heads that they need the thing. How do you suppose that happened? It’s a hideously expensive undertaking. You’d think the average nation would avoid it, if they could. They must really feel threatened. It doesn’t really matter whether the fear is rational or not. They’ve definitely got it, and somehow, we’ve got to mitigate it.

Nick: I do find it interesting that when China does shady things to improve their situation they are simply taking care of buisness, but when we do it, ...�

What shady things? We’re talking about negotiating (more likely deal making) with NK. If the Chinese can get some action, I’m all for it. But I do think it’s a little peculiar to be going all “Axis of Evil� on the one hand, and nuke plant building on the other. Don’t you think that’s peculiar?

Nick: “But if Liby wants to chalk this up as poor repressive Kim simply wanting to defend his poor starving people from the rthless Americans, ok, I mean after all, isnt that the sort of propaganda that people like Kim count on efore embarking on these little quests?�

I don’t think I’ve ever characterized the man quite like that. I’ve just recently said his administration was criminal. I believe over on the “Email It,� I’ve used the word extortionist. But we gotta deal with him, and anything short of nuclear war has my vote.

However, I positively believe that BushCo is not crafty enough to manage it. I think they’re stirring up trouble, on purpose, for their own class interest, and it’s going to get away from them, just like Iraq did. And I hate their guts.

Nick: “Addressing Libby directly in debate is a fools errand. She has suckered me into it several times only to disengage, when she realised she was in way over her head.�

Why do you always have to do this? It degrades your position, integrity-wise, so cut it out.

Posted by: Libby at October 19, 2006 09:18 PM

Libby believe me when I say, that nothing coming from you could possibly degrade my standing on this post. You have constantly avoided my points when mde to you in countless posts.

Your opinion on US-Chinese economic standing is your opinion. The bottom line is that the US consumes a great deal from china. Genneraly in the way of cheap shotty trash that just about any third world would love to produce for us. What i was simply stating is that the common held belief by people on the left that a trade deficet is a negative thing in all respects is not based on economic knowledge but the need to sure up your political position. See here is how trade works. We buy stuff, and because we buy stuff from china they are able to employ mass amounts of people. If we stop buying their stuff, it will be hard, but Im sure we could find another asian market that would be more than willing to make our cheap products which fill up wal marts. On the other hand, if we all of a sudden stop buying from china, they all of a sudden lose the largest consumer nation in the world which they can replace with NO ONE. Libby debating economics with you is laughable. Try looking beyond the most superficial speech resonating from the far left.

As far as China and tiawan, I forgot that some one as "progressive" as your self probably has a little more in common with communist china rather than democratic Taiwan. My point was valid. China is in an excellant position to gain political concessions from the US and the west by using their influence over NK. My gosh Libby, do you require a picture to figure this out? I could send you a a power point on international relations 101 if it would help.

As far as Bush giving them money....hold your breath Libby...HES WRONG....I DONT AGREE WITH THAT POLICY!! You see when you base your opinions on logic and resonining its ok to break from leaders whom you otherwise support, rather than make up some wacko conspiracy theory.

Im a reckless boy Libby? Please you just compared teh MAD policy between the two largest nuclear powers on the planet with NK having a nuke. Ok Im reckless, and your clueless, maybe neither one of us should be in charge. Yes the nuke is a deterrent. But hey Libby weve got a whole lot more, not to mention the fact that we could attack now and desimate his army in a month. And this is not a new development Libby, we coud have creamed NK at will militarily anytime we wanted. But we havent. Sweet heart if you cant see the extortion capability a nuke gives you, than your simply to far gone to reason with.

Im sure you think yourself noble, and really conceding a point when you proudly declare that you think Kim is a bad guy. Way to catch up.

Posted by: Nick Freitas at October 20, 2006 12:40 PM

I think this argument would have had a better start at the begenning of Bush's presidentcy. The time has past for Bush to act. If Bush would invade by Election time if Democrats won. The Democrats would just pull out of Iraq and The Korea theatre.
Democrats wanted us to fight in Korea so it would be a huge hummilation when we pulled out. I beleive with Democrats in control North Korea has a better chance of taking South Korea. I believe you all are underestimating North Korea capabilities.
Have you ever considered this possibility that if North Korea won in the south that Japan would be the next target? The U.S. is the only defense of Japan. The Japanese defense are regulated to be small for basic defense.
The beleif that Japan would hold is absurd Japan is an economic power not a military power. I beleive if North korea could take south korea and Japan it could become a major Superpower that could threaten the U.S.
The Democrat follow the apeasment idea they also pacifism and that everyone's problem is there own. I think this alone give North Korea with China Help a chance to Become a Major threat.
This sentence is for the Liberals, did you forget the Communist manifesto I didnt. Carl Marx says the MEANS JUSTIFIES THE END. China is not our ally China is double talking. Just because they look like they are helping us doesnt mean they are helping us. Dont forget China has been tryng to get the U.S. Out of Asia for many years.
I'm Saying this to get you to think

Posted by: John at November 8, 2006 01:44 PM

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