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March 26, 2007
Iran's Growing Aggression
by Jack Lee
How long does the stand-off between Iran and Britain last before somebody launches a few missiles into Tehran? The British were well aware of Iran's increasing saber rattling and they knew that several U.S. Seal team members were captured by Iran in the Shatt El Arab canal during the invasion of Iraq and this caused us a lot of problems. Because of this, the Brits were tracking their movements using GPS accurate to within 6 inches as they boarded an Iranian freighter in Iraqi waters for inspection.
Apparently Iran didn't care about international law or that they were beyond their own boarder.. They had a secret plan to spring and when their freighter crossed into Iraqi waters and it was stopped, their forces reacted. The Iranian plan called for the capture of the entire inspection team which would likely also contain some Americans. The purpose: Political exploitation and concessions. Unfortunately for them, fortunate for us, there were no Americans involved, only British soldiers.
This was just one more provocation in a long list of criminal conduct by Iran. It was another piece of their ongoing master plan to harass coalition forces in Iraq and undermine peacekeeping efforts and they do it ALL with a feeling of impunity because we have lacked the political will to take a meaningful and forceful response.
The US reply to date has been to make several press releases to the effect this is a British problem and they (UK) are seeking their own solution. So, why did we take this tact? It appears that if the U.S. becomes involved in direct talks this would play into Iran's strategy and it's exactly the poltical upper hand advantage they were hoping for. Consider, to do anything to humiliate the USA is to increase the popularity President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad among the radical Iranian Shiites and it would be a boost to his prestige among the subversive Iraqi Shiites working with Iranian agents. The bonus is it also diverts attention away from Iran's nuclear weapons program which has come under increasing pressure this week. The timing of this kidnapping says diversion might have become their primary motive.
What's next? Likely the UK is in no position to do anything more than negotiate through the normal diplomatic channels. Meanwhile, Iran will simply hang on to the soldiers for as long as it suits their purpose. They know both the US and the UK are in a weak political position at home, thanks to the leftist anti-war movement. Few options are available to either Bush or Blair, except to allow the UK negotiate and use the UN to lobby for their release.
If Blair had the courage and the intelligence, he would give Iran an ultimatum and Bush should then back him up publically, saying they were prepared to use military force against Tehran if the soldiers are not released in the next 48 hours.
Posted by Post Scripts at March 26, 2007 08:42 AM
Comments
They know both the US and the UK are in a weak political position at home, thanks to the leftist anti-war movement. Few options are available to either Bush or Blair, except to allow the UK negotiate and use the UN to lobby for their release.
I have to restrain my first impulses...
I cannot begin to imagine what it would be like to hold GWB's power in check. Every day, my admiration for the president grows. Governing in relative peace is difficult and trying...this is horrendous. What a job...and what an incredible burden. I look at the situation and I see few solutions. I am thankful for the minds that seek to counter terrorism.
Whatever we do will bring further conflict until we defeat the SOB's and, as a fun bonus, will be twisted by the sleazy minds on the left for political reasons. That's OK with me when we're talking about whether or not to give peanut subsidies to farmers but when we are fighting for the right to breath free...it's unconscionable!
Posted by: Tina at March 26, 2007 09:12 PM
Well Tasker, we may have missed the window of opportunity on this one. But, for arguments sake, my response would have been along the lines of Reagan v. Lybia, except I would target their military airfields with cruise missiles and hopefully wipe out at least a third of their planes in one attack.
Now that's an attention getter and while I had their undivided attention, I would threaten to finish the job if they didn't back off from committing further acts of war (as we've previously detailed).
The Iranian government would have to weigh the costs of waging war against the U.S. and allies verses the costly, immediate response to each and every act of aggression they dare to commit.
I feel the learning curve among the average Iranians will go up exponentially and it would likely have a direct effect on the popularity of their President that caused the losses and humiliation.
You may have a different approach and thats fine, this is just our opinions. So feel free to express your opinion...I would like to hear it.
Posted by: Jack at March 27, 2007 10:22 AM