« Bad Bill on the Hill | Main | Talking Peace - Preparing for War »
June 17, 2007
Once again I say…
“Hmmmmm”
by Tina Grazier
Last week I posted a story about the US and Israeli Air forces conducting exercises in the Southern Negev desert. I thought it was interesting and said as much. Seems I wasn’t the only one pondering the meaning of such activities at this time. An article over at “Frontpage Magazine” by P. David Hornik, “Training for the Next War,” cast a bit more light for those who might also be asking the question, “what is going on behind the scenes?”
The exercises were dismissed in Reuters as, “part of a multi-year working plan involving joint flights for the purpose of mutual learning,” by a military spokeswoman and as, “unconnected to the current situation in the country,” by an Israeli Military source. Our own Nick Freitas dismissed them, at least as an answer to the Iran nuclear problem. One way or the other, David Horniks article is worth a read:
The exercises, in any case, sparked interest and were reported in Arab media. They also manifest the fact that, despite reported Bush-administration disgruntlement with Israeli military capabilities after the summer 2006 war in Lebanon, U.S.-Israeli military cooperation continues at a high level.
Also on Monday all the Israeli outlets reported the successful launch of Israel’s Ofek-7 military spy satellite, a relief after its predecessor, Ofek-6, crashed into the Mediterranean shortly after launch in September 2004—and with the aging Ofek-5 already circling the earth for almost five years. The Ofek-7 is said to give Israel unprecedented capabilities and the Jerusalem Post says its “elliptical orbit reportedly takes it over Iran, Iraq and Syria every 90 minutes.”
One doesn’t have to be a conspiracy-monger to wonder if there’s some connection between the U.S.-Israeli air drills and the Ofek-7’s launch. It took, however, the Israeli scoop site DEBKAfile, which purports to have inside security information and not infrequently turns out to be right, to connect these dots in a single article.
From the DEBKAfile: Israel’s new Ofeq-7 satellite beams its first images to base Thursday June 14, 2007. With its successful launch Monday, Israel has acquired an essential intelligence asset for any war contingency…. military sources report that the launching was part of a seven-day US-Israeli air exercise taking place this week in the Negev which, though presented officially as a routine practice, reflects wide expectations of a Middle East war this summer. Israel thus launched the 300 kg Ofeq-7 in mock war conditions, displaying a cutting-edge capability reserved to the US and Russia.
The sad and savage events last week in Gaza make the situation, particularly in light of the military and financial support given to Hamas by the ayatollahs in Iran, even more immediate. After the Israeli failures in Lebanon last summer a strong plan is vital.
More news to ponder...
“Israel plans attack on Gaza” by Uzi Mahnaimi:
ISRAEL’s new defence minister Ehud Barak is planning an attack on Gaza within weeks to crush the Hamas militants who have seized power there. According to senior Israeli military sources, the plan calls for 20,000 troops to destroy much of Hamas’s military capability in days. The raid would be triggered by Hamas rocket attacks against Israel or a resumption of suicide bombings.
In a world in which defensive war is a relentless daily challenge, changing events make it difficult to anticipate and plan. I continue to be in awe of those who make it their business and life’s work to defend us. I watch, I wait and find myself continually saying, hmmmmmmmmm
Posted by Post Scripts at June 17, 2007 10:46 PM
Comments
If they can launch a satellite into orbit they can surely hit Tehran.
As to Hammas, this only shows how blood thristy and reckless their members are. Even if the world was under one Islamic religion, factional fighting would be worse than ever, I'm absolutely convinced of that. These people, and yes I am speaking in broad terms, just don't seem value life as much as they should, and that has always been very disturbing. They appear to be about 600-700 years behind in evolving.
Posted by: jack at June 18, 2007 10:52 AM
This is interesting, and perhaps one day Israel will possess the capability to bomb multiple hardened targets effectively without the support of carriers or cooperation of the countries in which it would have to fly over.
Again, it is one thing to bomb a single site hundreds of miles away, quite another to bomb multiple sites over a thousand miles away.
I am not one to underestimate the Israeli's, I have a great deal of respect for their determination, ingenuity, and effectiveness.
Having said this, one has to take into account the sheer magnitude of what we are talking about.
Israel has no carriers, they do not have friendly relations with their neighbors, and even if they had, those nations would not be inclined to help them in such an endeavor.
In short, Israel does not possess the ability to conduct such an operation on their own.
I am not an expert in these fields, I'm simply looking at what I know about terrain, geography, and available assets.
Posted by: Nick Freitas at June 19, 2007 11:06 AM
For Israel to mount a long range mission to Iran is next to impossible. In theory I suppose they could do it with the F-16 and wing tanks which then has a range of about 2900 miles. The distance between Isreal and Iran's nuclear sights is about 1250 miles.
In February 2005, the U.S. announced it would sell 500 "bunker busting" bombs to Israel, that could be used to take out buried nuclear and missile sites in Iran. Was anyone aware of that? Well, it's true and you can just bet those bombs are there now.
It would be an exhausting, high risk mission to just hit a few sites Iran, let alone the 60-70 nuke sites we know that exist. I doubt that even with our bunker busting bombs we could reach deep enough on one mission to take out the reactors. The Iranian breeding reactors were built to take such hits. It would take multiple hits.
If they flew three against the same targets they "might" be able to knock them out, but it would be like a suicide mission after the first strike.
However, let's say there are only 3 sites of real concern and lets say there was a strike force of just 10 fighters carrying two bunker busters each. And lets say those planes came in below radar from the sea, their stealth ability wouldn't be needed... if they were good enough to fly that low and then pop up, hit the targets and head back to the sea. This allows at least 6 hits per target with a slight margin for error.
If you are thinking like an Israeli, then you are thinking yes it is almost impossible and that means it could be done.
It's a huge gamble, but when the threat is extreme is enough the gamble is worth it.
May - 07 "We deeply regret that Iran ... has further expanded its enrichment activities," the G8 ministers said in a joint statement.
"If Iran continues to refuse to heed the call of the Security Council, we will support further appropriate measures,"
Anything could happen next folks....
Posted by: Jack Lee at June 19, 2007 05:48 PM
There's a great article on this subject, "The Case for Bombing Iran," by Norman Podhoretz. Find it in Commentary magazine here:
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/cm/main/viewArticle.html?id=10882
...my guess is that he intends, within the next 21 months, to order air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities from the three U.S. aircraft carriers already sitting nearby. ** But if that is what he has in mind, why is he spending all this time doing the diplomatic dance and wasting so much energy on getting the Russians and the Chinese to sign on to sanctions? The reason, I suspect, is that—to borrow a phrase from Robert Kagan—he has been “giving futility its chance.” ** ...his overriding purpose is to ensure the security of this country in accordance with the vow he took upon becoming President, and in line with his pledge not to stand by while one of the world’s most dangerous regimes threatens us with one of the world’s most dangerous weapons. ** Bush has taken to heart what “[o]fficials from 21 governments in and around the Middle East warned at a meeting of Arab leaders in March”—namely, “that Iran’s drive for atomic technology could result in the beginning of ‘a grave and destructive nuclear arms race in the region.’” Which is to say that he fears that local resistance to Iran’s bid for hegemony in the greater Middle East through the acquisition of nuclear weapons could have even more dangerous consequences than a passive capitulation to that bid by the Arab countries. For resistance would spell the doom of all efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, and it would vastly increase the chances of their use. ** a new study by two members of the Security Studies Program at MIT concludes that the Israeli Air Force “now possesses the capability to destroy even well-hardened targets in Iran with some degree of confidence.” The problem is that all of the many contingencies involved would have to go right for such a mission to succeed.
The article is lengthy and both historically and contextually informative.
Posted by: Tina at June 20, 2007 07:42 PM
Goodness me, do none of your read any reputable commentary? This month's Atlantic goes into some detail about Condi and her coordinated strategy for compelling Prezzy AB to cool it.
We can only hope it will be effective ... as Prezzy AB is every bit the nutcase that Prezzy GB is. Lord help us all.
There is talk that Prezzy GB may finally be willing to concede what an abominiation to the founding principles of this nation Gitmo is, and close the place. One shudders to think to where we will transfer the little beggars, but we will, at least, not be so blatantly hypocritical.
One takes what comfort there is.
Posted by: Libby at June 21, 2007 08:45 PM
"The little beggers"?...oh please! Poor "little beggers' never had it so good given their choice to play at terror games instead of house.
Mr. Podhoretz is a highly respected editor and journalist...that he's unfamiliar to you does not surprise.
Posted by: Tina at June 21, 2007 10:45 PM
Libby, actually I got part of my info. China News. Can't get much more left than that and I have to admit for a commie news outlet it's pretty factual. The other source was CNN.
CNN and China News...are you saying you have a problem with these two sources? lol
Y-o-u are reading the Atlantic??? The Atlantic, wow, I have to admit that is credible reading and for that I'm proud of you Libby!
You better be careful,the next thing you know you will demanding your tax dollars be spent wisely!
So, for your next reading assignment would like a copy of Newt's book on restoring American idealism?
Posted by: Jack Lee at June 22, 2007 07:53 AM
Knowledge of the existence of criminals among us does not ... sue me ... send me scurrying under the bed, nor does it motivate me to abandon the principles upon which this country was founded.
Seemingly, we have absolutely nothing to take these little beggars to trial with but tortured confessions ... so we are keeping them prisoner without trial. Does that sound right to you? The Yahoo reports today that some ghastly hole in Afghanistan is likely to be their new home.
Again, in the Altantic this month is a tiny piece about Saudi Arabia's efforts to reintegrate AQ boys into their society. They (totally groady patriarchalness notwithstanding) are being constructive. We are not.
Posted by: Libby at June 22, 2007 10:40 AM
...nor does it motivate me to abandon the principles upon which this country was founded.
Name the "abandoned" principles, Libby.
Seemingly, we have absolutely nothing to take these little beggars to trial with but tortured confessions ... so we are keeping them prisoner without trial.
"Seemingly" does not constitue a case against the administration...it does reflect a leftist propaganda position and it does ignore the efforts to release those who are not dedicated terrorists, the efforts to contain those who continue to be dedicated to killing us, and the perspective of other highly educated and trained legal types besides the ACLU who believe what we are doing is legal.
Yahoo reports today that some ghastly hole in Afghanistan is likely to be their new home.
This is what comes of folks playing politics instead of backing the administration. We are treating them with greater respect than they will receive from their own homeland or governments.
You can thank those who can't tell the difference between overt acts of aggression and evil(911,beheadings and real torture of private citizens) with defensive tactics administered with restraint and intended to save innocent lives.
They (totally groady patriarchalness notwithstanding) are being constructive. We are not.
"They" are greatly responsible for what is happening in their culture...we are not! They have the power to change the culture...we do not!It is entirely appropriate for them to make these efforts; it would not be appropriate for us to do the same.
Posted by: Tina at June 22, 2007 10:32 PM