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September 17, 2007
Election Update & How Incumbents Get Re-Elected
by Jack Lee
I decided to run for the State Assembly back in early July of this year. Since then I've been fairly quiet about it here in part because of the "Fairness Act" which would require I give equal time to my opponents. However, just recently a supreme court ruling has exempted blogs from that law.... Don't panic, I'm still not going to use this site as my personal soap box, it would be wrong to abuse our relationship that has been built on news and information you can really use! What I would like to do instead, now that I am more "liberated" to talk on issues close to my campaign, is to bring you items like the propositions noted above and campaign related news items. (An informed voter is a smart voter, right? Right!)
Here's a campaign related news item: Term limits has qualified for the ballot in February and my competing campaigns are fund raising like mad, even though they may be forced to fold up their tents and go home if term limits passes. I think it's a dirty trick to take people's money for their campaign unless they understand their donations may be for nothing come February. Most seats won't be termed out, like Assemblyman Rick Keene in the 3rd District, in fact the incumbents like Keene will get 6 more years in office (if they run for re-election and they almost always do, Keene said he would). Incumbents almost can't be beat, unless they carjack somebody at gunpoint and even then I'm not so sure. They typically have about 5 times the campaign money and the name recognition and that might account for why 96% of Congress gets re-elected.
The actual primary election is not until June, but like I said, it could all be over by February for most challenger-candidates. The election schedule has everybody a little confused. So remember, we have 3 election dates in 08: Feb 5th - Presidential primary, June 3rd - State Primary and Nov. 4th - State General Election.
Note: The last day to register to vote in February is January 22, 08 (all dates reported are according to Sec. of State's Office and these dates may be subject to change)
Now read why it's so likely that an incumbent will get re-elected in Part II:
Consider this from Wikopedia on incumbency advantages....
The Incumbency Advantage Candidate-centered voting is a major advantage to incumbent members of Congress. Incumbents, in general, receive far more exposure on television and in newspapers than those challenging them. With greater media exposure and substantial influence over public policy, incumbents are also able to raise far greater sums of money with which to campaign. For these reasons and more, incumbents who run for reelection are very likely to win. In 2002, 398 House members ran for reelection, and only 16 were defeated, while a mere three out of 26 senators running for reelection lost. With a reelection rate of 88 percent for the Senate and 96 percent for the House, it is fair to say that congressional elections are not just candidate centered but incumbent centered as well.
Incumbency advantages involve the ability of congressman to make themselves popular with the voters in their district. Thus they can insulate themselves from regular party voting. Regular party voting is voting your partisan identification. A congressman that makes himself personally popular doesn’t have to worry about the ebb and flow of popularity for Democrats or Republicans as a whole. Thus they can insulate themselves from challengers. Assessing the Incumbency Advantage Most incumbents who run for re-election get reelected. Since WWII, 92% of incumbents who ran for reelection got reelected. The incumbency advantage can be a bit overstated, though. Not much competition. – Quality challengers (not some fresh face out of law school) do not typically choose to run when there is little chance. ( example: Claire McCaskill vs Jim Talent.) Incumbents who are vulnerable don’t have to run for reelection. The vulnerable incumbent can (and often do) retire. Thus they self-select out of reelection.
Causes of Incumbency Advantage Experience – an incumbent by definition is experienced. He or she has already won at least one election. They have an inkling on what to do to get elected. Franking – congressional privilege that allows congresspersons to send out mail to their constituents FOR FREE. It’s in the Constitution. Challengers don’t get to send out free mail to the district or state. Free Media – local media like covering congressman. Furthermore, they can go on national TV shows, they have an office in Washington that can create media releases. Money – congressman bring federal spending into their local areas to benefit the district (which thus increases goodwill in the district for you). Naturally challengers can’t do this. Casework – when individual constituents have a problem and call their congressman. It’s an easy, non-controversial way of making voters happy. People helped (no matter what party) will be more likely to vote for him and they will tell their friends. A large proportion of their staff is dedicated to doing casework. Campaign finance – the ability to raise money. They have a big advantage over challengers because they are already in congress with a vote over legislation and thus interest groups will attempt to influence them (whatever their party).
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incumbency_advantage_%28politics%29"
Posted by Post Scripts at September 17, 2007 08:17 AM
Comments
A congressman that makes himself personally popular doesn’t have to worry about the ebb and flow of popularity for Democrats or Republicans as a whole. Thus they can insulate themselves from challengers.
Republicans proved this could be overcome in '94 when they swept the congress by making the elections about "national" issues rather than "regional" issues.
Posted by: Tina at September 17, 2007 08:15 PM