The PPIC's latest statewide survey says nearly half of likely voters (47%) support Proposition 93.
Of the three components of this term-limits initiative, the proposal to reduce total time in office has the strongest support. Two in three say existing term limits are a good thing in California, while seven in 10 think they are in need of major (29%) or minor changes (40%).
50% voter approval is the magical number that says a proposition is a slam dunk certainty; Prop 93 has 47% and is gaining ground instead of losing ground as many conservatives in the north state had hoped.
The infusion of several new PAC's behind Prop 93 is likely only to counter balance the Steve Poizner group support against it. As we enter the home stretch, Prop 93 appears to be solidly winning. Only an all out conservative push could reverse the trend and there just doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm to do that. In fact, it is many Republicans in the Southern part of this state that are compounding the problem by supporting Prop 93.
Now a look at the bigger picture. . .
If Prop 93 passes:
Incumbents Rick Keene-R, Doug LaMalfa-R, Sam Aanested, Tom McClintock-R and many other Republicans will be allowed to serve up to a maximum of 6 more years in the Assembly or one more term in the Senate. The election bids of current Republican candidates like Sue Horne, Dan Logue and Jack Lee will be over, because they are not prepared to run against the popular partisan incumbent, Rick Keene-R in the 3rd Assembly District.
The GOP would then have 6 more years to bolster their failing voter support. The can use this time to prepare a counter strike against the eroding support from within their own ranks.
Butte County now has only 47,226 registered Republicans, down from about 52,000 in 1999. The statewide statistics of voters registered with the Republican Party recently declined from 35.3% to 33.8%. So, the GOP better have a plan and they better act fast to stop this reversal of political fortunes.
The traditional GOP platform isn't making it and it is going to need major reforms if it the California Republican Party is going to be a viable voter alternative. Even 3rd parties are gain numbers and this is probably the most telling sign that Republicans have failed at leadership, ideas and reform. More by default than by demand Democrats have filled the void left by the GOP defections.
If Prop 93 fails:
Under the current term limit rules 42 incumbents will be forced out of office and these seats will all be up for re-election. Some of these seats are now held by Republicans in Democratic districts which means if the Republican incumbents were forced out of office by term limits the Democrats would stand a very good chance of filling those seats and adding to their majority numbers in both the Senate and the Assembly. This could lead to the Democrats gaining a 2/3rds majority in either the Assembly or the Senate or possibly both which would be a political disaster of the highest magnitude for the GOP. It would be an unprecidented defeat and a rebuke by the voters of the Republican platform and it's leadership.
The GOP would no have no clout in determining the state budget if Dems get a 2/3rds majority and the failure of Prop 93 threatens to do just that!
Whether Prop 93 passes or fails, it appears the consequences for the GOP overall will not be good, unless the failure of 93 brings the Republicans a new leader from the ranks of the new candidates. The GOP is in desperate need of a leader that can capture the hearts of voters and offer what the voters have been demanding for years, integrity, ideas and reform!
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