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October 26, 2006
What happens IF we pull out?
by Jack Lee
What happens if we pull out of Iraq? A civil war on an apocalyptic scale is my guess.
You probably guessed about the same, because you know there's so much hate that has built up from 30 years of Saddam's regime and a 1000 years of conflict within Islam. We see it spilling over in the form of sectarian violence every day. Iraq's become like a huge pressure religious cooker and look who is sitting on the lid!
Without our presence to keep that lid in place only the terminally naive could believe it will not immediately explode into a bloody civil war. So, the questions before us as we enter into this election, what happens if we DO leave suddenly and what is the long range prognosis? Better yet, is it even possible for us to keep this situation from exploding? I'll be the first to admit, I don't know and I doubt even Solomon could know, however we can make a few guesstaments or extrapolations based on what we do know from recent past practice and my favorite teacher....history.
Sunni's are the moderates and they are currently better funded than their opposition, the Shiite's who are more numerous by a 3 to 1 ratio. Sunni's in some countries, like Saudi Arabia, have turned to fundamentalism in their religious schools for Jihadists to counter the Shia Jihadists that threaten them. Obviously this is not their only motive for producing fundamentalist radicals, but that's another problem for another time.
The potential for the spread of violence is incredibly high
and consequences could be long lasting and catastrophic.
and consequences could be long lasting and catastrophic.
The issues in this pending conflict may seem new, but they are as old as the origins of religion and the chaos that followed when two competing religions first met. The far right of Shia's and the far right of the Sunni', devoutly and intractably believe... their interpretation of Islam is the right interpretation and they will fight to death to prove it. They believe to question their religious authority is to contradict the word of God. They truly believe their struggle is just and no sacrifice is too great; better to die for God and live in heaven than to exist in world surrounded by corruption or usurpers (mistaken believers in Islam). They both believe they will prevail because God ordains it; they are the chosen ones. The more centrists views inside the Nation of Islam either fall on deaf ears or if they are too close to the radicals, then they are not openly expressed for logical reasons of self preservation!
On strictly religious terms, the Gulf region and to some degree, all Muslim nations, have a vested interest in the future of Iraq and their reasons are varied, complex and often passion driven. Given this passion element, it doesn't take a leap of logic to see how a religious war in Iraq could draw in determined fighters from every nation in the world with a substantial Islamic population...this includes a number of European countries too. Let's not overlook the Islamofication of Europe and all that it means when push comes to beheading. The potential for the spread of violence is incredibly high and consequences could be long lasting and catastrophic.
If the Shia in Iraq prevail they will have done so with the aid of the US. They would not have had a chance under the Bathist regime. They would be somewhat indebted to us if this happened, but then the influence from Iran would be greater than ever as a Shia corridor would exist from Tehran to the Red Sea and that can't be good for anyone. If the Sunni prevail it will be because of Turkey, Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia. I know, we haven't even got to what all this means for Al Qaeda. Chaos creates a vacuum of power and there's Al Qaeda's opportunity to exploit. Connect those dots friends...it's mind numbing. I'm sure this was the reason Bush Sr. left Hussein in charge after Gulf 1!
How far do you want to extrapolate this potential conflict? I suppose I could go on for pages, but in the spirit of a blog I'll leave the rest to your imagination and to your "comments". To that end, Tina and I would really like to hear what you have to say!
"We saved the Iraqi's from Saddam, but we may not be able to save them from themselves." Carl Levin
For a better understanding may I suggest....
Kabbalah theory - Adam, Moses and Abraham, the latter being the common prophet between Islam and Judaic beliefs.
Principles of Islam and and again here.
Sunni and Shia differences, Abu Muhammad al-Afriqi and this site.
Origins of Karbalah, why Muslims martyr.
Posted by Post Scripts at October 26, 2006 08:36 AM
Comments
Jack: "What happens if we pull out of Iraq? A civil war on an apocolyptic scale is my guess."
Well, they haven't quite got the means for anything apocalyptic really, but it will certainly be nasty. The question is: will our staying make it any less so. Rumor has it the the country is already, effectively, partitioned. The Kurds are very securely set up in the north, got their own army and everything. The southern mullahs and their militias are battling for regional control with absolutely no interference from us or the Brits. In the center of the county (and Baghdad) Sunnis and Shia are chasing each other to the east and west, respectively, in preparation for some real blood-letting ... again, with virtually no hinderance from us.
So. Are we going to make the same 150,000 guys sit in the crossfire for another four years like the Prezzy wants? Are we?
Posted by: Libby at October 26, 2006 01:57 PM
Oh believe me Libby, when ever a liberal has gotten their way in this war it has resulted in a soldier "sitting" in the crossfire as opposed to being able to act against it with all our ability to do so.
What is fascinating is that you can't decide if we should have 150,000 or 350,00o "sitting" in that cross fire.
I actually think that the libs have done a very good job in wearing down the American people in this war.
It truly is fascinating.
Take the average Liberal American in the war on terror. At best the average Liberal American (or any American for that matter) probably isn't related to someone who has been over seas. They are better off financially than they were when the war started. They pay fewer taxes. They don't wait in lines for gas. They don't have to use a ration card. They are probably safer as a result. Life as a whole has probably gotten better as home ownership is high, the stock market is at record highs, and unemployment is at record lows. Oh and one more thing, chances are, that if you are a liberal, you are probably not serving in the military at anywhere near the same numbers as moderate to conservative Americans.
Now let's look at the average combat arms soldier. Now, since this war has started, if he has been in since the beginning, he has probably been deployed at least once and probably twice. The continuation of the war means more time from home, it means missing more of those "firsts" that your child does. It means missing holidays, anniversaries, birthdays, etc. It means he will bury more of his friends, and it means that he stands a greater chance of personally being killed.
Yet you ask the average combat arms soldier if we should be in Iraq, and they usually say yes.
But why should we listen to them? I mean, they are the ones with the most experience, and the most to lose. But why should we listen to them when we have Libby and her cohorts, who are more interested with reports form journalists doing reports from their hotel rooms, or liberal politicians who spend a grand total of 2 weeks in country and come to the conclusion that they were right all along...what a surprise.
I am just a little tired of Libby basing her conclusion off of "rumor has it" reports.
She along with the entirety of the Democratic Party has no solution or strategy for fighting the war on terror past making it an international man hunt for one man, and turning the war on terror into a legal rather than a military mission. Sounds kind of like the strategy that helped get us to Sept 11.
I have already explained the various reasons why Iraq is critical to the war on terror. And those reasons have never been adequately challenged.
So cut and run if you want to. But let's not pretend your doing it for the troops "sitting" in a crossfire. Were not the ones kicking and screaming to leave. Were the ones kicking and screaming about all of the restrictions being placed on us in a time of war. Restrictions that is new, absurd, and coming almost exclusively at the behest of the left.
Democrats would like you to think that because they have voted to finance the war, they have given us everything we need. The bottom line is we need support in the form of restriction relief. We need to be allowed to act on intelligence quickly and decisively. That will never be possible as long as a majority of Democrats think that making a terrorist, who cuts off the heads of innocent people; stand on a box for extended periods of time is inhuman. Believe it or not that sort of thing works. So do allot of other things.
I wish with all my heart that I could arrange for liberals to fight wars the way they say they should be fought.
Posted by: Nick Freitas at October 26, 2006 05:10 PM
Jack, One thing that I have never heard anyone speculate about is how many people in the region want to live in freedom and peace. We know they exist but is there enough of them to stand against the hard core Muslim exremists? The thing that is a certainty is that the will to support those people, however many there are, had better pick up or we may very well get to discover what hard times are really about. It may include big fireworks but it's more likely to be a slow painful slide into dark and dreary. In all of history people who failed to stand against tyranny and acts of evil found themselves murdered or enslaved. A few always manage to compromise and survive for awhile but they too eventually come to some dark end.
This is a huge topic and you've set us a task with all of the websites you offered.I'll do my best to look at some of them over the weekend. For now let me leave you with a couple of quotes from one woman with a solid foundation and will.
This is from WND's "The Whistleblower. The article is titled "Glimpse into the Heart of the Arabic World" by Brigitte Gabriel who was at one time the anchor for World News for Middle East television. She moved to the US in 1989 and founded (Americancongressfortruth.com)as a means of educating others about the Middle East conflict from her first hand experience.
"I was raised in Lebanon, where I was taught that the Jews were evil, Israel was the devil, and the only time we will have peace in the Middle East is when we kill all the Jews and drive them into the sea. When the Muslims and Palestinians declared Jihad in 1975, they started massacring the Christians, city after city. I ended up living in a bomb shelter under ground from age 10 to 17, without electricity, eating grass to live, and crawling under sniper bullets to a spring to get water. It was Israel who came to help Christians in Lebanon. My mother was wounded...and was taken to an Israeli hospital...when we entered the emergency room, I was shocked at what I saw...hundreds of people wounded, Moslems, Palestinians, Christians, Lebanese, and Israeli soldiers. The doctors treated everyone according to their injury...they saw people in need and they helped. For the first time in my life I experienced a human quality that I know my culture would not have shown to their enemy. I experienced the values of the Israeli's who were able to love their enemy in their most trying moments...those days changed my life."
This incredible excerpt from her story says it all. It contrasts the brutality and savagry of the extreme view against the imperfect but still equitable ideals of civilization. It is a contrast between brutality and decency. This is the heart of all conflict and it is why we are in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is why our brave soldiers are willing to stay and fight against difficult and horrific odds. This is why our president will not falter in his commitment to protect and preserve us and our nation, to honor and serve our soldiers and the mission.
Ms. Gabriel concludes: "So many times in history in the last 100 years, citizens have stood by and done nothing, allowing evil to prevail. As America stood up against and defeated communism, now it is time to stand up and support and defend against the terror of religious bigotry and intolerance."
Posted by: Tina at October 26, 2006 11:13 PM
"Now let's look at the average combat arms soldier. Now, since this war has started, if he has been in since the beginning, he has probably been deployed at least once and probably twice. The continuation of the war means more time from home, it means missing more of those "firsts" that your child does. It means missing holidays, anniversaries, birthdays, etc. It means he will bury more of his friends, and it means that he stands a greater chance of personally being killed."
I'd like to add to Nick’s list of soldier sacrifices by saying soldiers often experience the added stress of knowing that the family at home suffers emotional and financial burdens. They are all giving so much for our country, giving back is possible:
There are many excellent organizations that offer support to the troops and their families. Some offer scholarships for fallen soldiers' kids, some offer to care for pets while soldiers are away, some adopt a pregnant wife, some send care packages for the military dogs, some buy and ship heaters and air conditioners, some send special packages of snacks, books and cd's…it's even possible to "adopt" a soldier or his entire unit, and of course, there are ways to give support to the wounded recovering in hospitals...find an organization and give as generously as you can. Try these excellent links for starters:
militarysupportnetwork.org
TheUnitedWebsitesOfAmerica.com
Posted by: Tina at October 27, 2006 09:55 PM