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April 30, 2008
The California Vote
By Jack Lee
Just before the Presidential Primary last February CA Democrats had a 10 point advantage over Republicans; the official count by the Secretary of State was 43% to 33%. And this should come as no big surprise to anyone, we know California is a blue state, however statistics can be deceiving because people don't always vote the way they are supposed too. And lets remember, there is a major war raging between Hillary and Obama. Since they both represent basically the same thing, the only salvos left to fire are personal ones and this can be mutually assured destruction.
However, the Democrats have somehow managed to increase that increased that margin 10.7%. But, is this .7% significant?
My guess is no and this ties in with what I just about how people surprise us. What is going to be determining factor is the cross over vote and this is difficult to quantify. How many Democrats would sooner vote for McCain than Hillary or McCain than Obama? We're not sure, but we know there are a large number of conservative democrats who will.
In this election a major determining factor for outcome is how the Hispanic vote will be cast. Let's just tell it like it is now and the question on everyone's mind is will Hispanics vote for a female or a black person? Will their traditionally socially conservative values and moderate fiscal coupled to long held cultural biases view push them closer to McCain than either Hillary's or Obama's camp? Don't think the Democratic Party isn't scrambling trying to figure this one out. This is a big dilemma for them!
Over 22% of California's population is of Hispanic ancestry. 5.1% are of African ancestry. Hispanics now represent 29% of the likely Democratic voters. This is a record number and they've never been higher than 17% in previous elections. Clinton beat Obama in among older Latinos, beating Obama 78 to 21 percent among Hispanics 60 or older. What is going to happen to those votes if Clinton is not the nominee? Not all, but a fair number are going to go McCain. Overall California Democrats voted for Clinton in the primary, will they be inclined to swap sides in the last 60 days of the race and support Obama? You know Obama is going to be the nominee; it would fracture the party if he wasn't because he has the popular vote. My guess McCain will get many disaffected Clinton democrats too.
So, the good news here folks is California is in play and McCain has a better than even chance of capturing California for the GOP, despite the odds.
Remember, odds are one thing, voter patterns are another and McCain looks like he has the edge needed to win California. He needs to seize this opportunity and work California for all it's worth and the GOP needs to back him. This is going to be tough for California's conservative Republicans, but if they don't go all out now they will be damaging themselves for years to come and it could turn victory into defeat for McCain.
Posted by Post Scripts at April 30, 2008 10:28 AM