POST SCRIPTS

A car plowed into a bike race along a highway near the U.S.-Mexico border, killing one and injuring 10 others. The driver was dirt poor, no insurance and drunk off his butt. This is why we need a secure border, right? Now read the rest of the story...

Juan Campos the 28-year-old driver was apparently drunk and fell asleep when he crashed into the race Sunday, a police investigator said Monday. A photograph taken by a city official showed bicyclists and equipment being hurled high into the air by the collision.

Juan Campos, an American, was charged with killing 37-year-old Alejandro Alvarez of Monterrey. The accident occured in Mexico.

Posted by Post Scripts at 08:50 AM | Comments (5)

Counter Terrorism Class - Day One

Script Writer Jack "Top Kick" Lee

0700 hours. Counter-terrorism studies, Bldg 602b, Camp Chico; Your instructor today will be Samuel L. Jackson in the role of MSG Jackson CT Instructor. MSG Jackson, the class is yours…

Alright class listen up! We’ve got a lot to cover here and I won’t be messin around, now lets begin:

You ever wonder how our shadowy friends in dark trench coats quantify statistical data on terrorism to formulate policy.... policy we carry out? Well, wonder no more. Welcome to CT-101, sit back, shut up and prepare to learn. But first, if you're not yet cleared to be in this class, be advised this information is restricted and YOU can't be here! So, go take a break and read the Washington Post, The News & Review or surf over to MoveOn.org, but you can't stay here!

I’m sure most of you will be surprised to discover that statistical analysis, although helpful, isn't the most important thing to intel gathering. Stats are more like a one dimensional view of the problem, it’s just one cog in the machine. We require correlation with other things to be relevant and we’ll discuss those things in just a moment. But, first, where do our stats come from? Who supplies us our stats? What we use and what all intel agnecies use are acquired from open source data, like newspaper reports from around the world. At our Ops Center we have over 100 analysts that are fluent in 34 of world’s most popular languages and all they do is read open source reports like any one of you could do... if you could decipher all those languages. Then they summarize it and report as verified terrorist events, this means they set it apart from criminal events that may look the same, but are not the same.

Now let’s consider what those stats mean. Here's one example: The hard statistics for terrorist bombings in Iraq during April- May of this year show 12% fewer bombings than in Feb.-Mar. This doesn't necessarily mean we're 12% more effective nor their side is 12% less active. It is what is.... it is a stat, a tool, and until stats are combined with many other factors determined by the boots on the ground, like enemy concentration and activity, target types, or the physical nature of the attacks, you really don't have much. It's just a stat and it doesn't tell us what we really need to know, like the who, what, when and where; and that's what every good cop needs to

know to solve crimes and that is what we in J2 do every day, we solve crimes against humanity, we identify terrorist organizations like the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Al-Qaeda, Jama'at al-Tawhid wa'al-Jihad and the followers of Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Luis Farrakhan. That last part was a joke, I wanted to see if you were paying attention.

We need to know how it's being done and by what groups in what regions... where's the most activity and so on, in order to effectively focus our counter-terrorist (CT) activity effectively with the right composition of force necessary for the mission, hooah? (You are supposed to answer that with a HOO-AH or you will be running laps into next week, is that clear Soldiers?) Alright then!

Figures lie, liars figure...you've all heard that and here's why that old saying is true, especially in the intel world... unless you do it right. Ok, we know civilian casualties were up 150% in Ramadi over the last 60 days. Statistically this is a fact and it makes for great headlines, hooah? (Alright that's better!) So what do you really have with a 150% increase? Just another misleading headline. Now, let me tell you what the real story was... 90% of the casualties in that area and for that time period was due to one deadly car bombing. By a bomb made by one bomb maker and delivered by two of the bomb makers friends and that people does not a terrorist front make. It was 3 terrorists, but they did a lot of damage.

No need to deploy the 82nd Airborne for this one; better to just send in one ODA team to do a little recon followed by a late night visit to the home of one bomb maker by the name of Hussein Khidhir Hamza of Ramadi. This is how you do it, with proper force allocation; and you do it in proportion to the threat, because you're not placing too much weight on a statistic or other limited data.

Okay, let’s get into some hard data, data our OC analysts are probably perusing right now. You all are cleared for SECRET, right? You better be, I don't want to have to come here and find out you didn't have your clearance in order! Alright then, here we go: In 2007 we noted approximately 14,000 plus terrorist attacks occurring in various countries, resulting in over 22,000 deaths. That was a 9 percent in fatalities from the previous year, although the number of attacks was about the same. See anything important here? And let me remind you, if you are going to stay up with the class, you had better have just said, the attack M/O was improved to yield more casualties per event.

Now let’s talk global regions, in particular the Near East and South Asia. These two regions accounted for about 87 percent of the 355 casualty attacks that killed 10 or more people—and I want you to note right now that only 45 of these casualty attacks occurred in Africa, East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Eurasia, and Western Hemisphere. This is strategically significant on several levels, such as it helps us do a link analysis to specific groups known to operate in that region. Further, it can tell us if that known source is expanding or contracting their sphere of influence and further it points us in a direction to identifying their pipeline or supply route, especially when they are under contraction. Experience has taught us that went terrorist groups come under pressure and fall back, the move closer to their sponsor nation and that's really helpful in planning coordinated offensives.

Now, of the 14,000 plus reported attacks worldwide, almost 43 percent—about 6,200—occurred in Iraq where approximately 13,600 fatalities—60 percent of the worldwide total—were reported for 2007.

The number of reported attacks in 2007 fell in the Western Hemisphere by 42 percent, in Europe and Eurasia by 8 percent, and in South Asia by almost 7 percent. In 2005, Iraq accounted for 30 percent of the worldwide terrorist attacks. Alright class, what does this tell you, and I swear if anyone here doesn't get this one right, you're all going back to the motor pool! Yes, ok...you got it! This indicates there is a strong correlation to the number of terrorist activities in Iraq and the declining number in rest of the world. CIA, DIA and others have concluded that the war in Iraq is having a negative impact on terrorist resources and it gives us a hint to how limited those terrorist resources really are.

Now for your homework, in addition to the human toll, over 19,000 facilities were struck or were targets of terrorist attacks last year. Since the data’s baseline in 2005, the most common types of properties damaged or destroyed during an attack were vehicles and residences, but in 2007 communities were frequently attacked, an approximate increase of 45 percent, from just over 930 attacks in 2006 to well over 1,300 attacks in 2007. What then is the projection for 2008 if all else, like troop deployment remained equal? And then answer this, if attacks in 2008 were to subside in Iraq and the rest of the world what conclusion would you reach?

Before our class is dismissed for today I want you to remember one last thing, Section 2656f(b) of Title 22 of the U.S. Code. This is a law passed by Congress that makes the State Department responsible for tracking open source data on terrorist events around the world. And the result is "terrorist stats" open to the news media and they use it to craft their version of the real story.... absent what we know is the real story. But, now you know what their stories are worth because you have just learned what 90% of media doesn't know. So you will never again put much stock in what they have to say based off their limited statistical data, ...Hooah?

Report back at 0700 hours, class dismissed! Oh and don't forget, watch me in "Patriot Games", it's on TV tonight.

Posted by Post Scripts at 07:58 AM | Comments (0)

June 02, 2008

What About The Mayors Rights?

Posted by Tina

What is it with our more left leaning representatives? They can’t find a way to support the good guys,,,but they sure do concern themselves with the rights of thugs:

MEXICO CITY - Suspected drug gang hitmen shot dead a mayor in western Mexico as he drove back from a day out with his family, the latest politician to die in Mexico's drug war, a state attorney general's office said on Monday. Gunmen caught up to Mayor Marcelo Ibarra on a highway and shot him in the head on Sunday night as he was returning to his hometown of Villa Madero in Michoacan state… - Reuters

MEXICO CITY — The Mexican government warned Monday it would not accept conditions the U.S. Congress has imposed on an aid package to combat drug trafficking. The Merida Initiative would provide US$1.4 billion over several years to help Mexico, Central America, the Dominican Republic and Haiti combat drug trafficking. But the U.S. House and Senate have imposed several conditions on the aid, including guarantees of civilian investigations into human rights abuses by the Mexican military. - AP

Posted by Post Scripts at 09:22 PM | Comments (0)

IBD Compares Media Coverage Today vs 1929

Posted by Tina

If you’ve ever wondered what people are so upset about when they complain about the “main stream media” have I got a story for you! The following is a comparison that perfectly illustrates the way the media tries to manipulate the attitude and mood of the country. (It also reflects the differences between current generations and those that came before us…they were survivors, with grit and a finely honed sense of personal responsibility for the future.)

I encourage you to read the full story…it’s a hoot!

“The Economy Isn't Hopeless; It's The Press,” by Dan Gainor

As the stock market reeled from the Bear Stearns collapse back in March, ABC News asked: Is the "economy heading over a cliff?" Journalists made it seem so, calling the American financial system everything from "bleak" to in a "meltdown." ** ABC, CBS and NBC made comparisons to America's worst economic turmoil — the Great Depression — more than 40 times in the first four months of 2008. ** Compare that with how the New York Times summed up its own market outlook in an Oct. 30, 1929, story after billions of dollars were lost in record trading. "Despite the drastic decline, sentiment in Wall Street last night was more cheerful than it has been on any day since the torrent of selling got under way," wrote the paper. ** Words like "optimism" and "hope" shouted off the pages of major newspapers. The Oct. 31, 1929, Times described the devastating six-day decline: "The market quickly regained its poise and stability." * The same day, the Washington Post discussed "the passing of the crisis." ** The difference between how the media handled a crisis in 1929 and 2008 was astounding. Network news was four times more negative about the Bear Stearns buyout than major newspapers were about the 1929 crash, which many historians link to the beginning of the Depression.

Is it any wonder people today tune out?

Posted by Post Scripts at 08:58 PM | Comments (0)

Good Iraq War News Not Worth Even a Snipet!

Posted by Tina Grazier

People are beginning to notice...there’s been a void, a remarkable absence of message…what in the world has happened to the hammering negative news about the war in Iraq??? It’s off the front pages and off the top of every fifteen minute news segment…what happened?

Looks like there might be a very promising story to tell…but the news is all GOOD:

“A Glaring Omission,” by Abe Greenwald – Commentary Magazine

After years of telling us the war on terror was creating more terrorists, the mainstream media has mysteriously woken up to the fact that Islamic extremism is on the wane. Newsweek is the latest publication to run a support-for-jihad-is-fading piece. Readers of CONTENTIONS should by now be familiar with the evidence: Iraqis have turned against radical clerics, Pakistani voters have rejected Islamist leaders, Turkey’s ruling AKP party is trying to modernize Islam, etc. The critical thing is the shift in Islam, not the acknowledgment from Newsweek, of course. ** But there is an important omission in the sudden coverage of moderate Muslims: No one talks about the effect of the Iraq War. The MSM can dodge the issue all they like, but the fact remains that the Coalition’s toppling of Saddam facilitated the first organized rejection of fanatical Islam in the Middle East. Back in November 2005, while everyone stateside was crying fiasco, a group of Sunnis in Anbar province joined forces with a clutch of U.S. Marines and began to wrest their country back from al-Qaeda and its sympathizers. That effort grew into a statewide political movement that saw AQI on the run within two years. The Sunni Awakening in itself would not have been enough to stave off the deadly threat of extremism in Iraq. Without Prime Minister al-Maliki’s commitment to take on fanatical Shia militias, both the indiscriminate killing and the political torpor would have continued to hamper any truly national progress.

Stay tuned and start digging in the closet for the fireworks and bunting…when we do welcome home the last of our troops it should be in celebration of a job well done...some of us might want to reconsider our opinion of the Comander-in-Chief too.

Posted by Post Scripts at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

June 01, 2008

Quote of the Week

A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.
- George Bernard Shaw

Our runner up quote was worth publishing too...

Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.
-Douglas Casey, (Classmate of Bill Clinton at Georgetown University)

Posted by Post Scripts at 10:32 PM | Comments (0)

No Fun Without You!

Over the last week or so we have had a problem that has made it impossible for anyone to post a comment to Post Scripts, including Jack and Tina. One thing this experience has taught us is that you, our faithful readers and commenters, are what make the blog truly fun, rewarding and interesting.

Needless to say both Jack and I hope this wrinkle will be ironed out soon. We miss your brilliant comments, your thoughtful comments...even your comments taking us to task. We miss the helpful references you offer and of course, the fact that you seem to have and enjoy a great sense of humor.

Let's hope we're all back on board real soon!!

Posted by Post Scripts at 04:04 PM | Comments (0)

PICKS FOR TUESDAY'S PRIMARY VOTE