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June 30, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 16

This photo comes come to me from NOAA's Weather Service Forecast Office in Monterey.

This is the official USHCN climate station of record for Livermore, CA. USHCN # 44997 The temperature sensor is located in a backyard of a residence within six feet of the swimming pool.

Livermore_CA_USHCN.jpg

Here is the temperature trend from NASA GISS:
Livermore_plot.png

The question is: can an unbiased and accurate reading of temperature be obtained in somebody's backyard next to their pool? With NOAA siting requirements saying a minimum of 100 feet from buildings, I would assume this would apply to pools too.

I couldn't make this up if I tried.

You can see the picture without the annotations on the NWS website with this direct link:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/images/mtr/cpm/4997.jpg

UPDATE: NOAA/NCDC privacy concerns questioned by alert blog reader

In my previous post, NOAA Throws a roadblock my way I talked about how NOAA/NCDC has thrown a roadblock into the work being done to survey weather stations citing "privacy concerns" of observer's name being included in station data being used to locate stations.

Alert blog reader Gerald Ingle passed this info on to me.

It appears that NOAA does not follow their own edicts, as they have a web page dedicated to cooperative observer newsletters and awards.


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/2002-Awards.htm

On this web page you can find names of the observers, the station name, their PHOTOS in front of their stations, and in some cases their partial life history!

They also have a gallery of images in addition to the newsletters about COOP observers.


For example:


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/2002/2002-15.htm

see caption below

Britt, IA, Cooperative Observers Dianne and Keith Hansons show
off their 10 Year Length of Service Award
.

This blows the NOAA/NCDC “privacy concerns” out of the water. They were worried about names appearing with MMS station data, well here we have names, photos, and more on NOAA's own website.

They can’t have it both ways. Here is the link for the NOAA newsletters page.


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/coop_newsletter.htm

Note the link where ANYBODY can sign up their email and get the newsletter chock full of names, stations, and photos of observers


Get on the free newsletter mailing list

It's not even a confirmation email signup, just type in anybody’s email and it appears to accept it.

No confirmation email was received when I signed up, so apparently having somebody getting spammed isn't an issue either.

NOAA/NCDC throws a roadblock my way

ncdc_noaa.gif

As many readers know, the www.surfacestations.org effort has been gaining a lot of attention, and also volunteers. I'm now at over 130 volunteers nationwide.

The results of the effort attracted national attention. I never went seeking it, but when Bill Stiegerwald of the Pittsburgh Tribune stumbled across it, he wrote a column about it. Little did I know his column was nationally syndicated. Last week I found myself being asked to give radio interviews. One interview, at KIRO in Seattle surprised me when I found myself being co-interviewed with Dr. Thomas Peterson of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) the keeper of weather records, including weather station records. The exchange was congenial and stuck to science. That was Thursday June 21st. I am certain NCDC is aware of the effort that is going on to document the stations. Part of the reason the effort exists is that NCDC has been pressed to do this by scientists that want to do exactly what I'm doing, studying the measurement environment, and NCDC has failed to do it. We'll come back to that.

Part of the method I and volunteers are using to do this project relies on a database of weather station information provided by NCDC. In some cases stations are at airports, fire stations, sewage treatment plants, and ranger stations. In other few cases, they are at the residences of observers that have volunteered to record weather data and submit it to NCDC. Since the latitude and longitude provided in the database is fairly coarse, volunteers have to rely on a database entry called "Managing Parties" to find the name of the location, be it a fire station of the name of the volunteer observer.

You can access the database yourself, its a public record: http://mi3.ncdc.noaa.gov/mi3qry/login.cfm
Use the "Guest Login" button

I last used the NCDC database system this way to locate stations on Sunday evening, June 24th it went down Monday Morning June 25th and displayed a message:

"You are not authorized to view this information. Your IP address has been logged"

When it came back up Monday afternoon, the “managing parties” field identifying the location of the weather station was gone. I would note that I shared a radio interview with Dr. Thomas Peterson of NCDC last week, so I am certain NCDC is aware of the effort.

No notification was given, nor even a professional courtesy to advise of the change, nor any notice on the website. The records were simply removed from public view where they existed before. Given the timing, and because the this same data had been visible on the same system for years It seemed this was a response to the efforts to photograph and document the USHCN network.

Without this information, its is very difficult to locate the stations, and in some cases where the official climate station is in some one's backyard, completely impossible. For example, fellow blogger and surfacestations.org contributor Russ Steele had a very difficult time locating the official station for Ft. Bragg, CA. The observer did consent to having photos posted by the way. Had Russ not been able to contact the observer, the station would likely never have been found as it's surrounded by trees and garden.

One of my volunteers wrote a query to NCDC and got this back:

Your inquiry was forwarded to me by our webmaster. I’m glad you’ve found
MMS to be a useful tool in your research.
MMS is our primary source of station metadata for National Weather Service
Cooperative Observer and several other networks, and we are
actively working to provide increased detail for a larger number of stations.

It sounds as though you’ve used the system enough that once you’ve located
a station using the search, you’re clicking on the station name hyperlink
and opening a separate station details window. The managing party for a
station has always been visible by clicking on the “Other Parties” tab. In
the case of NWS Coop stations (the USHCN research network relies upon a
subset of stations in the NWS Coop program), this is usually the NWS office
that administers the site. This information was previously included at the
bottom of the Identity tab’s “form view,” but was removed from that view
early this week because in some cases it also revealed the name of the
Cooperative observer.

Cooperative observers are volunteers who donate their time in the interests
of the public good with a reasonable expectation that their personal
information will remain private. It is the NCDC’s policy to protect
observer details, based upon Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Update, Vol.
X, No. 2, 1989, which exempts the application of FOIA in certain cases and
establishes privacy protection decisions in accordance with the Privacy Act
of 1974 (2004 edition). This exemption applies when the personal privacy
interest is greater than any qualifying public interest for disclosure.

If you have other questions regarding MMS, please feel free to contact me.
I am often away from my desk, so my response may not be immediate.


I was shocked to say the least. So were others in the scientific community.

Data which was once public for years, has now been removed, and the timing is very suspect.

The claim that it was done to protect the privacy of observers doesn't stand up to certain tests:

1) COOP weather observers are gathering climate data which is published and publicly available. The program is publicly funded. Data and methods from a publicly funded program that is not classified for national security reasons should be available for public inspection. Clearly results from surefacestations.org so far show some problems with the climate measuring network.

2) That published data is used in a multitude of publicly funded research. Some of that research guides policy decisions. The effects of a public policy decision based on data gathered by a volunteer individuals can affect millions of people. The right of the individual to FOI privacy is trumped by the greater need of the general public's right to know if the data produced by that observer is accurate.

3) The data has been publicly available for years, removing it now is clearly in response to the effort to examine a public program given the timing of it having been removed four days after an NCDC official became aware of my efforts.

4) The data that has been removed also includes locations of public entities such as fire stations, police stations, sewage treatment plants, park headquarters, state run agricultural experiment farms, and many more. These locations are public entities and have no expectation of privacy whatsoever.

I can understand wanting an individual volunteer's privacy protected. But the method used so far has been to contact the observer ahead of time, tell them what the project is about, and ask for consent. If consent has not been given, no visit is made, and no photographs are taken. See the rules that each volunteer to surfacestations.org must follow

So you have to wonder this: Is NCDC asserting that the privacy interests of police and fire stations, park headquarters, waste water treatment plants, and a handful of individuals, outweighs the public interest in examining quality of data produced in NCDC records and subsequent NOAA reports and publicly funded research?

Urbana_WWTP_Detail_South_View.jpg
Does this waste water treatment plant measureing temperatures for the climate record really need privacy protection?

I said earlier we'd get back to something.

Dr. Roger Pielke, a senior climate researcher, of the University of Colorado, posted on his blog, his outrage at this action, calling it a "cover up". Those are strong words coming from a congenial scientist. He also posted something even more shocking:

Pictures of these weather stations already exist, but they are being held from public view. Apparently some time ago weather service offices were issued digital cameras and told to do this work. The pictures were submitted to NCDC, and an archiving process begun, then stopped again for "privacy concerns".

This is my position:

Given what has been seen so far at weather stations that have been inspected by myself and volunteers, it is clear that parts of the USHCN climate monitoring network are out of compliance with published siting standards and in disrepair. Given that the output of this network drives in part NOAA's climate assessment, the public should demand a full and open accounting of the condition and data accuracy. If volunteer observers using NOAA equipment at private residences do not wish to have their location and the data it produces scrutinized by quality control methods, they have that right. But the data [produced by these stations should be removed from the climatic dataset because it will be unverifiable.

June 28, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 15

The picture below comes to me via my website www.surfacestations.org from volunteer site surveyor Bob Meyer. It is the USHCN climate station of record for Waterville, Washington.

In addition to the now commonly seen attempts at measuring the temperature of parking lots, this station sports another new feature: volcanic cinder rock under the station to complement the tidy sidewalk. Note the convenient drive through teller window nearby so that you can cash your paycheck while on the way to the Post Office to mail in your COOP observer form to the National Climatic Data Center.

Watervile_WA_USHCN1.jpg

There's also a nearby building about 10 feet away, and of course, convenient close-by parking just a few feet from the MMTS temperature sensor. Note that published NOAA/NWS siting standards require a 100 foot distance from buildings.

Watervile_WA_USHCN2.jpg

The USHCN "high quality" set of climate monitoring stations keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

June 27, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 14

Hopkinsville_KY_USHCN.jpg

This picture comes to me via www.surfacestations.org courtesy of Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. of the University of Colorado.

It is the US Historical Climatological Network (USHCN) Station of Record for Hopkinsville, KY. The NOAA provided Max/Min Temperature Sensor is located at the observers home. The nearby air conditioner is just 10 feet from the temperature sensor. Then there's the chimney. The contribution of the portable BBQ grill to the temperature record is unknown.

The MMTS temperature sensor wasn't always mounted on the tower next to the house, it used to be in the yard, but the observer made some "improvements" over time. Note that published NOAA/NWS siting standards require a 100 foot distance from buildings.

June 26, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 13

Quitman_GA_USHCN.jpg

The picture above is of the official USHCN climate station of record in Quitman, GA and comes to me via www.surfacestations.org volunteer Joel McDade.

It is located at a residence, the observer has consented to having this NOAA weather equipment at his home.

Besides the usual problematic close-by parking of vehicles that we've seen before, and buildings less than 100 feet from the temperature sensor, we have a new issue to contend with: inoperable vehicles and abandoned appliances near the temperature sensor. Such big chunks of metal have thermal retention, which means that heat is retained past sunset and re-radiated near the sensor. This may bias overnight lows.

I thought the old washing machine was a nice touch though. It illustrates how little quality control of the temperature measuring environment is being done with the US Historical Climatological Network.

Additional pictures of the site are available at the surfacestations.org online database.

A landmark paper on earth's climate link to the sun

sun-earth-spiral.png
The diagram above is central to the paper's examination of the "spiral" nature of the earth to sun distance relationship, which affects noit only seasons, but longer term climate cycles.

Every once in awhile some thing comes along that really "clicks" with a lot of people in the science community.

A new paper from New Zealand titled: Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development is one of those that has "clicked" with a lot of people recently. It is the first scientific paper I've ever seen that pulls all the interdisciplinary fields of solar physics, astronomy, meteorology, hydrology, and climatology together to prove that in fact the sun is the major driver, even with its "small" fluctuations often ignored by climate scientists as being too small to matter.

It does matter, I've written about it many times, and this paper really has strong evidence supporting it. This is not just another paper talking about sunspots and the maunder minimum, no this one has some strong empirical evidence that directly links climate changes on earth to a myriad of changes in the sun-earth relationship.

What's even better, this paper is readable. It's not written in techno-speak with accents on using words 99% of the general population doesn't use. It's refreshing. Read it here (Adobe PDF)

The abstract reads: "This study is based on the numerical analysis of the properties of routinely observed
hydrometeorological data which in South Africa alone is collected at a rate of more than
half a million station days per year, with some records approaching 100 continuous years
in length. The analysis of this data demonstrates an unequivocal synchronous linkage
between these processes in South Africa and elsewhere, and solar activity. This confirms
observations and reports by others in many countries during the past 150 years.
It is also shown with a high degree of assurance that there is a synchronous linkage
between the statistically significant, 21-year periodicity in these processes and the
acceleration and deceleration of the sun as it moves through galactic space. Despite a
diligent search, no evidence could be found of trends in the data that could be attributed
to human activities."

My hat's off to these scientists: W J R Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van der Merwe and N Willemse

June 23, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 12

One of the really odd discoveries that I've made while surveying climate monitoring stations around the USA is the fact that many of the official stations are located at sewage treatment plants. For example, the one in Colusa, CA is at their sewage treatment plant. I've visited it.

A couple of volunteers for www.surfacestations.org have been going around Washington and Oregon locating stations there and have also reported a number of stations at waste-water treatment facilities. I'll get to why locating a temperature monitoring station at these facilities is a really bad idea later, but first I want to tell you why many of them are located at these places.

It has to do with the fact that somebody must read the thermometer once a day, write down the max and min temperatures for the last 24 hours in a logbook, then send in the page of the logbook to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) once a month. When stations were assigned to cities, they needed to locate them at a place where there was somebody 7 days a week. Sewage is a 24/7 operation. Police and fire stations have some stations for the same reason, somebody is always there.

Ok this picture comes in today from from surfacestations.org volunteer Steve Tiemeier, who visited the climate station of record located at the Urbana, Ohio Waste Water Treatment Plant:

Urbana_WWTP_Detail_South_View.jpg

The small item in the center of the picture labeled "MMTS" is the temperature sensor that is used to submit monthly climate reports to NCDC.

Now in case you don't see some of the obvious problems with this location and why its a terrible place to measure temperature, I'll list them one by one:

- Sensor is attached to the building, just mere inches away from brickwork
- Sensor is near windows, which radiate heat from heated interior rooms in winter
- Sensor is directly above effluent grates for waste-water, Waste-water is often warmer than the air many months of the year
- Sensor is between three buildings, restricting wind flow
- Sensor is between three buildings, acting as a corner reflector for infrared
- Several exhaust fans near sensor, even though one is disable, there are two more on the walls (silver domes)
- Air conditioner within 35 feet of sensor, enclosed area will tend to trap the exhaust air near sensor
- Sensor is directly over concrete slab
- Refrigeration unit nearby, exhausts air into the enclosed area
- Shadows of all buildings create a valley effect related to sunlight at certain times
- There are two nearby digester pools, which release heat and humidity in the sensor vicinity
- Heat and humidity plume over the site from digesters is often tens of degrees warmer than the air in the wintertime

Here is wider view that shows the temperature sensor in relation to the digester tank:
Urbana_WWTP_Digester.jpg

More picture on my image database here: http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=5322

I don't know if any readers of this blog have ever driven by a sewage treatment plant in the winter, in the midwest, as I have, but I can tell you from experience it looks like a hot springs with steam rising into the air.

Talk about your urban heat island effect...not only that, sewage treatment plants effluent volume is a direct indicator of population growth. So as more water is treated, more local effects from the heat/humidity plume occur, which can affect the temperature readings.

There are dozens, possibly hundreds of USHCN climate monitoring stations sited at sewage treatment plants around the USA. I'll have more reports on this in the future.

Who knew? I've been working in meteorology 25 years and I didn't until this week.

here are some other stations at a sewage treatment plants:

http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=1489

http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=4658

http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=4388

June 22, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 11

This is the USHCN climate station of record for Bainbridge Georgia. It comes to me by way of surfacestations.org survey volunteer Joel McDade. Joel wins the award for finding the USHCN station closest to an air conditioner, at 8.9 feet. That honor was previously held by Oregon State Climatologist George Taylor at just over 10 feet in his picture of Forest Grove Oregon.

bainbridge_ga_ushcn.jpg

In addition to the air conditioner, this USHCN climate monitoring station sports several other features:

- A building just 14.3 feet away
- Convenient close-by radiator forward parking for your vehicle within feet of the MMTS sensor
- An asphalt road within 10-15 feet of the sensor
- A mature shade tree that changes shade patterns with the season
- A station move of about 150 feet closer to the building to accommodate the new MMTS sensor cable length

The station is operated by the International Paper Company. The plot of temperature below illustrates some data gaps and jumps that may be related to station moves.
bainbridge_station_plot.gif

Full details on this site are at the surfacestations.org online image database

A note from a NASA Climate Researcher

NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Dr. Gavin Schmidt, a lead researcher with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) that does leading climate change studies, replied to one of my posts and made an assertion that the USHCN and GHCN stations and station data being discussed here in my blog are not used in validating climate models. This is surprising to me.

Here is the full correspondence:

Schmidt’s first post:
> Don't let me get in the way of your efforts here, but please stop saying that "This data is in fact used in climate modeling to predict our climate future".
>
> This is simply not so.
>
> You've downloaded the GISS model - perhaps you'd like to show me where these station data are used? You won't be able to because they aren't.
>
> Observational data at large scale (not individual stations) are used to evaluate the models after they've been run - but again generally only at the continental scale and above. The evaluation is not just with trends but
> with patterns of variability (El Nino responses, NAO etc.) and obviously, the better the data the more reliable the evaluation.
>
> Note that the climate model hindcasts for this area are around 0.5 over the 20th Century - significantly less than this individual station. Should this record therefore be shown to contaminated, it would actually improve our confidence in the models, not lessen it!

I responded to this on June 21st 2007 as follows:

> Gavin,
>
> I thank you for commenting on my blog, Watts Up with That? I'm honored
> that you would take the time. Rather than reply immediately, I thought
> I'd give some thought and research to my response, hence the delay. I
> also thought you'd appreciate a direct reply rather than a blog post.
>
> You wrote on the blog:
>
> "You've downloaded the GISS model - perhaps you'd like to show me where
> these station data are used? You won't be able to because they aren't."
>
> I did some looking at a paper you authored, I found Schmidt et al 2006,
> from BAMS, which is also posted on your website:
> http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Schmidt_etal_1.pdf
>
> You wrote on page 168 of the BAMS article:
>
> "We endeavor to compare the model simulations to as many suitable
> datasets as possible. ... . Where useful gridded datasets exist of
> selected in situ data we use those."
>
> After reading through your paper, I agree that you did not show any
> comparisons to GISS gridded data and I will withdraw any implication
> that you used GISS station data. However, I must say that I'm surprised
> to learn that GISS gridded data did not meet the standards of Schmidt et
> al 2006 of being either "useful" or "suitable". Thank you for drawing
> this to my attention.
>
> However, later in the article, on page 176, you show comparisons of
> model output to CRU surface temperature data on two occasions:
>
> "Surface air temperatures (SATs; Fig. 17) show a general warm
> continental bias in comparison to the updated Climate Research Unit
> (CRU) data (Jones et al. 1999).
>
> Figure 23 on page 187 shows Taylor diagram comparisons among the
> selected models for the December-February (DJF) and June-July (JJA)
> extratropical NH CRU surface air temperature (SAT)"
>
> It is my understanding that CRU uses GHCN station data, which includes
> the USHCN sites discussed here in my blog. So, my answer to your
> question is that Figures 17 and 23 of Schmidt 2006 et al use the station
> data discussed here via the CRU gridded data. It has always been my
> understanding that adjusted GHCN and USHCN surface station data (also
> listed on the GISS webpage) including the ones I show plots of, is
> applied to a gridded data scheme for use in the computer models, such as
> model E. If I am in error in that assumption, I welcome you pointing out
> that error.
>
> If you felt that I was speaking of a specific station data being "used
> to predict our climate future" that of course is not my intent. If that
> was the case, I'll revise the wording to make it clearer.
>
> Regarding your mention that "contamination of station data would improve
> your confidence in your model", I must say that I'm a bit surprised at
> this. I'm not really in a position to dispute this yet, but would
> appreciate some additional clarification as why you are so certain of
> this without even seeing the impact of contaminated data. I surmise the
> opposite to be true, but I welcome further understanding.
>
> Again I thank you for your comments, and I welcome any correspondence or
> suggestions you may have.
>
> Best regards,
> Anthony Watts

Dr. Gavin Schmidt replied on June 22nd, 2007 with:

My comments stand. The station data are not used *in* climate models, and
they are not used to predict future climate. So yes, the sentence you have
is just wrong. I'm not sure how you could edit it to make it correct.

We compare the models to the gridded products that deal with individual
station problems as best they can. We have used the GISTEMP and CRU
products to do so. (Semantic note, 'compare to' is not the same as
'include in'). For the specific station you have highlighted, the grid
point trends in the products (~0.5 deg - eveballing it, since I'm on
travel) are significantly less than the trend you show (2 deg or so).
Climate model results for the 20th C are similar (i.e. 0.5 deg). Thus
reductions of the trend at this station would actually improve the match
to the model - always being clear that you shouldn't really compare
model grid boxes to individual stations...

If you are of the opinion that this station is contaminated, then you have
to admit that the process designed to remove artefacts in the GISS or CRU
products has in fact done so - (i.e. that grid box in the product does not
have a 2 deg/Century trend).
Improvements to that process and the data are always welcome, but do not
ascribe consequences to your project that clearly do not follow.

Gavin
*--------------------------------------------------------------------*
| Gavin Schmidt NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies |
| 2880 Broadway |
| Tel: (212) xxx-xxxx New York, NY 10025 |
…| |
*--------------------------------------------------------------------*
[email address and tel# removed by Anthony for privacy/spam purposes]

So one has to wonder.

If Dr. Schmidt’s point is only the observation that they do not reconcile their models with every individual station (as opposed to gridcell composites calculated by GISS and CRU), then there is no misunderstanding.

However, it is very clear that the NASA GISS and CRU (Climate Research Unit) use this station data in arriving at their gridcell values which are what is presumably used in testing the models. From 53 USHCN site surveys done so far we know that a number of stations do not meet published WMO (World Meteorological or NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published standards.

There is no evidence at present that NASA GISS or CRU have made any effort to verify quality control standards at these USHCN stations. Whether these quality control issues will have a significant impact on overall averages remains to be seen. The only way to tell for certain is by examining individual stations though the site survey process as is being done on www.surfacestations.org and then doing an assessment of how pervasive the quality control problems are and what the potential impact of these problems may be.

But, any problems in individual USHCN stations will affect gridcell values. For non meteorologists, a gridcell is a box on a map that has been divided up into a x-y lines and specific data applied to each box. This helps in computer modeling because with computer programs it is easier to divide into cells, then calculate and display. Below is an example map that may help you visualize gridcells:

GHCN_GISS_250km_Trnd0112_1950_2000.gif

Whether it’s a big problem or a little problem remains to be seen, but it’s odd for Dr. Schmidt to pretend that it’s not a problem because they use the gridded version of the data.

June 21, 2007

Standards for weather stations


The Station at the Monterey, CA WSO

I've received a few requests for information regarding just what the established standards are for placing weather stations as they relate to their surroundings. Here is an excerpt from the NWS web page describing the issue, along with an embedded link to the PDF document that gives specific details:
The [National Weather Service] COOP network has provided climate and weather data for over 100 years. Consistency of the measurements is an attribute of the network, and it has been maintained by rare and/or gradual change, and established standards for exposure, of instruments over the life of the network. In order to preserve the integrity of the network, NWS has established standards for equipment, siting, and exposure.

By these standards, the Stevenson Screen at the NWS office in Monterey, CA shown above, is well out of compliance.

Temperature sensor siting: The sensor should be mounted 5 feet +/- 1 foot above the ground. The ground over which the shelter [radiation] is located should be typical of the surrounding area. A level, open clearing is desirable so the thermometers are freely ventilated by air flow. Do not install the sensor on a steep slope or in a sheltered hollow unless it is typical of the area or unless data from that type of site are desired. When possible, the shelter should be no closer than four times the height of any obstruction (tree, fence, building, etc.). The sensor should be at least 100 feet from any paved or concrete surface.

Precipitation gauge siting: The exposure of a rain gauge is very important for obtaining accurate measurements. Gauges should not be located close to isolated obstructions such as trees and buildings, which may deflect precipitation due to erratic turbulence. To avoid wind and resulting turbulence problems, do not locate gauges in wide-open spaces or on elevated sites, such as the tops of buildings. The best site for a gauge is one in which it is protected in all directions, such as in an opening in a grove of trees. The height of the protection should not exceed twice its distance from the gauge. As a general rule, the windier the gauge location is, the greater the precipitation error will be.

June 20, 2007

Analysis of weather station data

For those of you that want to see a detailed analysis of the data the weather stations mentioned here have produced, please take a look at Climate Audit at www.climateaudit.org

There a number of highly intelligent people are thinking through a number of the issues raised here. For example, it appears that adjustments made to the measured data by researchers may actually enhance the urban heat island effect.

petaluma_plot.gif

But its hard to tell for sure, because key software programs and formulae used to create such types of analyses for the IPCC haven't been made fully public. There is a Freedom of Information act effort going on in that regards because some requests for data sharing and formulae used to analyse the data have been rebuked.

Whats certain is that between the inconsistencies found with some of the surface weather stations and the lack of full disclosure on the methods used it warrants further study and investigation. One of the tenets of good science is data and methods sharing and repeatability by others. It is baffling that NOAA is not allowing their methods to be tested in this way.

June 19th, a busy day at Watts Up

Today was a record setting day, not only for this blog, but for any blog sponsored by the Enterprise Record. And to think I used to be excited when I got 3000 hits a month. My traffic today was over 20,000 visitors!

Today my work with weather station surveys hit Fox News. I was on Brit Hume's Special Report "Grapevine" show at 3:35PM PST and I was right up there with Al Gore and Reid Bryson, dubbed the father of climatology. I hope to have a You Tube clip to show soon. This is all because of one column by Bill Steigerwald in the Pittsburgh News and Tribune who stumbled across my blog last week. Yesterday his article was on The Drudge Report and it has been snowballing ever since.

So far most of the commentary has been supportive of the weather station survey work myself and volunteers like Russ Steele of Nevada County are doing.

sitemeter_061907.png

I haven't sought any publicity, but apparently a lot of people have found this work interesting. I just hope the publicity doesn't get in the way of completeing this project.

June 17, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 10

Russ Steele, a blogger in Nevada County at NCWatch is volunteering to do weather station site surveys as I've been doing. Yesterday Russ visited Petaluma California to see the USHCN climate station of record there. It used to be at the city fire station but has been moved to the airport, but apparently the NASA climate database hasn't yet caught up with that as it still shows "fire station" as the place.

Ok we have a temperature sensor strapped to a wooden deck, near a sea of tarmac.

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And not only that, the building with the deck is only six seet away, and has air conditioners exhausting hot air on the south side. Prevailing wind direction in that are is from the south, so that means wihen wind hits that wall, it will spread out the hot a/c exhaust east and west.

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Prevailing southerly winds will transfer heat from the burgeoning suburbs to the south, and when the wind reverses and comes from the north (after a frontal passage for example) it will transfer heat from the acres of tarmac to the sensor.

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So its really no surprise to see this plot. But not to worry, the climate modeler Dr. James Hansen at NASA has it all mathematically accounted for, except he still doesn't know the station is at the airport. He should try visiting weather stations someday.

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This station data is in fact used in climate modeling to predict our climate future.

June 15, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 9

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The picture above comes to me courtesy of Gary Kobes, of the US Coast Guard. It is the temperature sensor at the climate station of record in Aberdeen, WA It is located at the sewage treatment plant. Note the sign on the support post. Note also the temperature shelter plates are clogged with some dark matter, what I'm not sure.

Gary writes: The general location is about 300-400 feet north of Grays Harbor—the body of water. The sewage plant is located in the middle of an industrial area. The sewage plant lies between the site and the harbor generally on the south. The heavy construction company’s yard building and equipment are to the east. Weyerhaeuser has a log yard to the west. The northern boundary of the site is a railway and on the far side is an area of light industrial buildings.

The measuring head is 6’ above the ground. It is about 25’ from the office building in the background. It is surrounded on three sides—the tree and out building about 75” to the southeast, the office building 25’ to the southwest and the #1 sewage digester and processing tank 90’ to the northwest—and sheltered from the three primary prevailing directions of wind in the area. The measuring head has a 25’ wide strip of grass on the southwest side and a concrete sidewalk and asphalt parking lot to the northeast.

Nothing like convenient parking next to a weather station, why I'll bet those hot automobile radiators only affect the temperature a few degrees, not to worry.

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This station is used in the GISTEMP database to calculate future trends in computer driven climate models. You can see it here:

Aberdeen_WA_450008_plot.jpg

June 14, 2007

My Solar Anniversary

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Last week the Chico News and Review published an editorial (A smoked Red Herring) with my name right at the top, lambasting me for my investigations into climate change. That's fine, but the editorial implied that I have no interest in alternate energy or reducing air pollution.

That's not the case, I'm very pro alternate energy, and am a member of NSRE as well as the City Sustainability Commission. I've stated repeatedly that pollution reduction is a good thing.

Today is the 1 year anniversary of the solar power project I spearheaded as
a CUSD Trustee for Little Chico Creek School.

The project has exceeded production and financial expectations, producing 186,646 Kilowatt hours of electricity, and offsetting 231,441 pounds of CO2 emission as of this morning. You can watch the progress in real time on the schools solar energy webpage.

My skeptical interest in man driven climate change has to do with my meteorology background. If we are going to make wholesale policy changes based on the science, it needs to be bulletproof. When science becomes politicized, we have to look closer. That's what I'm doing. Right now I'm finding some holes in the theory that CO2 is the sole reason the earth is heating up. I'm finding sloppy science in the most basic measurements of surface temperature, upon which the entire global warming issue is built. See my series "How not to measure temperature"

Also I'd point out that the premise of "Smog is Smog" posited by the Chico News and Review is incorrect. CO2 is not a major component or initiator of "smog". Ozone, nitrous oxides, particulates, and water vapor are the major components, and I'm all for eliminating smog.

June 12, 2007

New Element Discovered: Governmentium

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The discovery of the heaviest chemical element yet known to
science. The new element has been tentatively named
Governmentium.

Governmentium has 1 neutron, 12 assistant neutrons, 75
deputy neutrons, and 224 assistant deputy neutrons, giving
it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held
together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by
vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons.

Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However,
it can be detected as it impedes every reaction with which
it comes into contact. A minute amount of Governmentium
causes one reaction to take over four days to complete when
it w ould normally take less than a second.

Governmentium has a normal half-life of three years; it does
not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a
portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons
exchange places. In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually
increase over time, since each reorganization will cause
some morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes.

This characteristic of moron-promotion leads some scientists
to speculate that Governmentium is formed whenever morons
reach a certain quantity in concentration. This hypothetical
quantity is referred to as Critical Morass.

June 11, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 8

The picture below is from Radio station KQEN in Roseburg, OR. It is the official climate observing site for Roseburg. This picture is courtesy of Oregon State University Climatologist, George Taylor, whom is collaborating with me on my www.surfacestations.org project

Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg

Note that Mr. Taylor is not responsible for the thermometer placement, the National Weather Service in Medford is in charge of the observer program. and sets up the equipment. Only a couple of problems here, like the roof itself being hotter than any surrounding area on any given day, but lets just throw in a nearby rooftop air conditioning unit for good measure. A/C units exhaust quite a bit of hot air.

Here's the temperature plot from NASA's GISS database, which is used in global climate modeling and climate forecasting. Yes, this data is part of the USHCN "high quality" dataset used to make climate change predictions.

Roseburg_OR_Plot.jpg


I'm not making this up, check it out for yourself at NASA's GISTEMP database

June 08, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 7

I found this when I visited the old Army Airfield (Derby Field) in Lovelock, Nevada. The official airport for the city also has a NOAA weather station that has been there since the airfield opened around WWII.

lovelock_mig480.JPG

In addition to the air conditioners, there's nothing like an occasional jet blast or propwash to complement your high temperature measurements. Thats not a museum piece, its a working jet. The aviation ramp is in fact just 10 feet from the Stevenson Screen. This station has since been replaced with a more modern ASOS, about 200 yards south of this location, but this Stevenson Screen measured data for years in the exact same spot.

And yes, the data from it is in the NASA GISTEMP database used in climate modeling which you can see here

It looks like the whole thing may in fact be a Soviet plot. ;-) (Its a Russian MIG parked there)

Oh, and they like light bulbs in the screen here too. Notice this screen is the old kind with doors that open side by side.

At least somebody had the good sense to put in a timer.

Lovelock Army Airfield shelter interior

June 07, 2007

Snow in June

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Yesterday I had to drive up California State highway 88 doing another series of weather station surveys. I ran into a snowstorm between 6500 and 8000 feet. Big flakes, with accumulation. The temp outside was 31 degrees when I snapped this pix above

And when it was all over, a reward on the other side of the mountain. A picture of Silver Lake near the Kit Carson Lodge.

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The last time it snowed in June was the year 2000, just as we were going into another solar peak.

June 06, 2007

My summer project - a national weather station audit

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You may remember a couple of weeks ago I got sideswiped by Ms, Sherri Quammen, who in a letter to the editor called me a "weapon of mass destruction" because I'm actively involved in climate change issues locally. While funny, it did give me the impetus (aka kick in the pants) I needed to get very busy and serious about a project I had been contemplating for some time:

A national repository of weather station site surveys.

ZZZZ Snore, ho hum you say? I'd normally agree, as the subject matter is the stuff of sleep inducers. But there's a hitch. It seems that the folks at the top of the food chain in climate research didn't do their homework at the base level, and didn't bother to do a quality control check on the many weather stations used in the climate records and the computer models used to predict our climate future.

I remember a talk in the spring where Jim Price of CSU had to interrupt (at the behest of a couple of folks that felt a comment about the sun's role in climate change studies was being ignored was "biased") the Chico observatory series, Cosmic Hike to give us all a tongue lashing on why Global Warming is "good science". I asked him a question in front of everybody about how well biases in measurements at weather stations had been accounted for (Jim's on the IPCC committee) and he said that they had been "carefully accounted for and considered". I didn't believe him then, even less now.

Ok back to my summer project. Thanks to Quammen's inspiration, I got busy putting together a website called www.surfacestations.org for the purpose of doing a nationwide, and hopefully a worldwide audit on the viability of the weather stations used in climate research.

To seed the effort, I've been driving around Northern California photographing and logging weather stations, and blogger Russ Steele from Grass Valley has been helping do surveys too. You've seen some of them in my blog posts titled: How not to measure temperature.

Some, like Marysville, are just unbelievably badly biased, and to be blunt, the data they produce is simply useless. Yet, they are part of our "official" climate temperature record, and the data is in fact used in the computer models.

So Monday, I go live with the www.surfacestations.org website showcasing some of the US Historical Climate Record sites which is the major framework that global warming science is built upon.

The reaction was immediate and visceral in the science blogosphere. I'd hit a nerve. Some posters called for my "removal", not knowing that I'm not funded by grants, nor employed by a government agency. I'm funding all this myself, out of my own pocket. I had to chuckle. Some called me an amateur, others said I would taint the outcome, some just ranted (I think maybe Tasker joined in). Many questioned why such an effort was needed at all. The reaction to taking photographs of weather stations to document their conditions raised a stink I never could have predicted. Why? How can something so simple raise so many hackles? Aren't many climate scientists saying "case closed" and "no more debate"? How could a few pictures threaten this established science?

Well here's why: Lets use the weather station in Willows at the Tehama Colusa Canal Authority as an example. Its a lights=0 station. A what? Lights=0 means it has no lights around it. Ok so what does that have to do with climate change and temperature measurement? Well, it turns out that Dr. James Hansen of NASA, in creating his USHCN database didn't actually visit the weather stations to see if they were working well and bias free, but rather conducted an armchair survey where he used nighttime Department of Defense satellite photos to evaluate the potential heat bias from growth around the stations. He figured counting streetlights in a radius would be a good indicator. For stations like Willows, out at the end of Hwy162, yes it works. It also works for out of the way stations like Lake Spaulding, except that the armchair light counting survey didn't catch the fact the temperature sensor is parked over an aluminum boat next to a building, on a steel tower over a rocky surface. How hot could that be? I presume the boat is there for a fast getaway in case of catastrophic sea level rise.

But this armchair survey didn't catch things like air conditioners blowing hot exhaust air on sensors, or the Marysville Fire Department parking their vehicles within 6 feet of the sensor, or the fact that Tahoe City had a new tennis court put up 25 feet away and a trash burn barrel located next to the station. And when the really embarrassingly bad weather stations Russ and I documented started showing up, the pro warming folks had to do something because it challenged the very data itself.

The www.surfacestations.org site has been up two days now, and I'm getting hundreds of registrations across the country from people wanting to get involved in the grass roots effort to photograph, measure, catalog and contribute to the database of weather stations. I'm getting inquires from Congress, Policy think tanks, and bloggers worldwide. I even had a mom who's driving cross country with her daughter contact me to ask how she could participate.

BTW you can sign up to help, its free, easy, and fun too. Find the stations can be a bit of a puzzle, like GPS caching.

I've been invited to submit a research paper, and I'm having a lot of fun too. Now I know why I lost the school board election, it was to give me time to do this. Everything happens for a reason.

June 04, 2007

The Junk Science Life Cycle

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I found this very interesting, so I decided to repost it here.

Below is the life cycle of junk science, from the web blog Daily Dollop It shows the history of classic junk science, from diet pills to The Population Bomb.

Genesis
1) Maverick Scientist has an Idea.
2) Other scientists deride the Idea.
3) SF Writers use Idea as image of bleak future.
4) Academics debate Idea.
5) Politicians begins to discuss the Idea, but don’t understand it.
6) General Public ignores the Idea.

Growth
7) Champion arrives to actively promote and publicize Idea.
8) Scientists form a consensus that agrees with Idea.
9) Academics teach Idea as fact.
10) Fast Adapters change lifestyle, ridicule General Public.
11) Hollywood makes disaster movie, sometimes based on SF novel from 3.
12) General Public makes token lifestyle changes.
13) Politicians use Idea to attack political enemies.

Hysteria
14) Scientific consensus begins ruthlessly crushing dissent.
15) Champion is hailed as Messianic Leader.
16) Academics announce society is doomed.
17) General public accepts Idea.
18) Opponents of Idea are cast as wicked and immoral.
19) Music Industry holds benefit, sometimes using film name from 11.

Critical Mass
20) Dissenting Scientist proposes alternative theory to Idea.
21) Scientific consensus denounces Dissenting Scientist.
22) Messianic Leader begins making ludicrous claims unrelated to Idea.
23) Politicians propose massive social, fiscal, and moral changes to accommodate Idea.
24) Time Magazine puts Maverick Scientist, Messiah, Idea, or all 3 on cover.

Death and Rebirth
25) Dissenting Scientist is proven to be right, nothing happens.
26) Scientists form new consensus, claim they knew all along.
27) Fast Adapters are ridiculed by General Public.
28) Academics continue to teach Idea as “compelling theory”.
29) Politicians raise taxes, just in case.
30) Messiah and Entertainment Industry find new Maverick Scientist.
31) Return to Step 1

June 03, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 6

Ok folks, just when you think I could not possibly post any worse pictures of official climate stations, I yet again have more. I’d like to point out that I’ve only surveyed about 10 stations in California so far, and what you see posted here represents samples from those.

It gives you an idea of the magnitude of the problem.

Ok here is Tahoe City California, GISS ID 425724880010 and an active station of record. I was unable to locate the observer for this station but was able to speak with the property management people for the nearby condos.

Tahoe_city1.jpg

The first picture is looking south over lake Tahoe. BTW the van is not mine, but belongs to the groundskeeper, and yes that's where he parks it regularly. Note the doggie bags. There's a walking path nearby.

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Next picture, looking north, whats that, a tennis court within 25 feet of the station? Horrors.

Tahoe_city3.jpg

Final picture. It seems the groundskeeper likes to burn the trash and paper he picks up on the grounds, guess where he does it?

Honest folks, I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried.

The property management person I spoke with said the tennis court and condos was built in the early 80’s.

Here is the GISS plot, showing the data trends used in NASA's Model E global Climate computer model

Tahoe_city4.jpg

Note the jump and sustained plateau of temperature after 1980. Tennis anyone?

June 01, 2007

How not to measure temperature, part 5

Today I visited the City of Lodi, California, since they have a USHCN weather station that produces data used in the climate record and also in climate change computer modeling.

Wow was I surprised, not only because of how bad the weather station siting was, but because I found two.

lodi_muni.jpg
First site is the Lodi Municipal Service Center, 38.11619N 121.29003W. FYI, Lodi runs their own municipal district, which is why they own a substation. Note the bank of fans on the big transformer. they are about 30 feet away. I wasn't about to get close enough to the transformers to measure for sure. The fans exhaust the waste heat the transformer produces. Note that when temperatures are at their highest, so is electrical energy use for air conditioning. And of course, our thermometer will track this trend.

The picture to me is like “when worlds collide” where the solar power to offset GHG’s (charging the car) meets the reason for global warming in the first place (the waste heat from the power transformers).

Here is a Google Earth Satellite photograph of the location with my annotations:
lodi_substation_satellite_view.jpg


The second site is at the Lodi Fire Station #3, 38.10586N 121.28815W.

Lodi_fire2.jpg

And here is the Google Earth satellite view:
lodi_firestation2_satellite_view.jpg


I’m not sure which one is the official climate site for Lodi yet as I will have to call NWS Sac, but they are both equally bad. To the right of the picture on north side of fire station is the fireman’s BBQ pit with 3 grills…and like many others, this weather station comes with close-by parking and trash service…there's nothing like asphalt, concrete, gravel, hot vehicle radiators, and sweltering steel garbage dumpsters to complement your temperature readings.

The two stations are about 1/2 mile apart, so the lat/long published by NWS, which is only accurate to .01 degree, is useless to tell which is the official climate site for Lodi.

Here is the temperature plot for Lodi, population 52,000 according to the US Census
lodi_plot.jpg

Now compare this to Sacramento, a city of 1.5 million, about 40 miles North
sacramento_plot.jpg

Somethings not right for sure. I wonder what it could be?

BTW, these plots are from NASA's GISTEMP database, which you can look at yourself here. The curator of this database of stations is Dr. James Hansen, considered by many to be the major scientist driving climate change policy.

It gets curiouser and curiouser.

You know after seeing so many pathetically bad temperature measurement stations around Northern California, and seeing how they are relegated to the back lots with the trash and other unsightly things, it becomes clear that nobody in a position of power, like Dr. Hansen, has been visiting these stations to ensure that basic quality control is carried out. Temperature measurement seems to be the back lot bastard child of operational science today.

And yet, we are about to undertake policy changes that will cost billions, based on some really badly gathered temperature data. It appears more and more that the surface temperature is a Red Herring for climate change.

How not to measure temperature, part 4, at the Royal Observatory

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This is a Google Earth satellite photo of the Royal Observatory in Edinburgh. The weather station, at 55°55′22.71″N 3°11′17.69″W is the white box in the middle of the grass circle. Of concern is not just the nearby roads, but also the buildings. It appears the station is almost completely encircled by tall buildings.

This means that the heat from the buildings will significantly bias the temperature, and reduce wind which adds further bias.

You’d think top scientists would know better?

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