Script Writer Jack “Top Kick” Lee
0700 hours. Counter-terrorism studies, Bldg 602b, Camp Chico; Your instructor today will be Samuel L. Jackson in the role of MSG Jackson CT Instructor. MSG Jackson, the class is yours
Alright class listen up! Weve got a lot to cover here and I wont be messin around, now lets begin:
You ever wonder how our shadowy friends in dark trench coats quantify statistical data on terrorism to formulate policy…. policy we carry out? Well, wonder no more. Welcome to CT-101, sit back, shut up and prepare to learn. But first, if you’re not yet cleared to be in this class, be advised this information is restricted and YOU can’t be here! So, go take a break and read the Washington Post, The News & Review or surf over to MoveOn.org, but you can’t stay here!
Im sure most of you will be surprised to discover that statistical analysis, although helpful, isn’t the most important thing to intel gathering. Stats are more like a one dimensional view of the problem, its just one cog in the machine. We require correlation with other things to be relevant and well discuss those things in just a moment. But, first, where do our stats come from? Who supplies us our stats? What we use and what all intel agnecies use are acquired from open source data, like newspaper reports from around the world. At our Ops Center we have over 100 analysts that are fluent in 34 of worlds most popular languages and all they do is read open source reports like any one of you could do… if you could decipher all those languages. Then they summarize it and report as verified terrorist events, this means they set it apart from criminal events that may look the same, but are not the same.
Now lets consider what those stats mean. Here’s one example: The hard statistics for terrorist bombings in Iraq during April- May of this year show 12% fewer bombings than in Feb.-Mar. This doesn’t necessarily mean we’re 12% more effective nor their side is 12% less active. It is what is…. it is a stat, a tool, and until stats are combined with many other factors determined by the boots on the ground, like enemy concentration and activity, target types, or the physical nature of the attacks, you really don’t have much. It’s just a stat and it doesn’t tell us what we really need to know, like the who, what, when and where; and that’s what every good cop needs to
know to solve crimes and that is what we in J2 do every day, we solve crimes against humanity, we identify terrorist organizations like the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, Al-Qaeda, Jama’at al-Tawhid wa’al-Jihad and the followers of Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Luis Farrakhan. That last part was a joke, I wanted to see if you were paying attention.
We need to know how it’s being done and by what groups in what regions… where’s the most activity and so on, in order to effectively focus our counter-terrorist (CT) activity effectively with the right composition of force necessary for the mission, hooah? (You are supposed to answer that with a HOO-AH or you will be running laps into next week, is that clear Soldiers?) Alright then!
Figures lie, liars figure…you’ve all heard that and here’s why that old saying is true, especially in the intel world… unless you do it right. Ok, we know civilian casualties were up 150% in Ramadi over the last 60 days. Statistically this is a fact and it makes for great headlines, hooah? (Alright that’s better!) So what do you really have with a 150% increase? Just another misleading headline. Now, let me tell you what the real story was… 90% of the casualties in that area and for that time period was due to one deadly car bombing. By a bomb made by one bomb maker and delivered by two of the bomb makers friends and that people does not a terrorist front make. It was 3 terrorists, but they did a lot of damage.
No need to deploy the 82nd Airborne for this one; better to just send in one ODA team to do a little recon followed by a late night visit to the home of one bomb maker by the name of Hussein Khidhir Hamza of Ramadi. This is how you do it, with proper force allocation; and you do it in proportion to the threat, because you’re not placing too much weight on a statistic or other limited data.
Okay, lets get into some hard data, data our OC analysts are probably perusing right now. You all are cleared for SECRET, right? You better be, I don’t want to have to come here and find out you didn’t have your clearance in order! Alright then, here we go: In 2007 we noted approximately 14,000 plus terrorist attacks occurring in various countries, resulting in over 22,000 deaths. That was a 9 percent in fatalities from the previous year, although the number of attacks was about the same. See anything important here? And let me remind you, if you are going to stay up with the class, you had better have just said, the attack M/O was improved to yield more casualties per event.
Now lets talk global regions, in particular the Near East and South Asia. These two regions accounted for about 87 percent of the 355 casualty attacks that killed 10 or more peopleand I want you to note right now that only 45 of these casualty attacks occurred in Africa, East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Eurasia, and Western Hemisphere. This is strategically significant on several levels, such as it helps us do a link analysis to specific groups known to operate in that region. Further, it can tell us if that known source is expanding or contracting their sphere of influence and further it points us in a direction to identifying their pipeline or supply route, especially when they are under contraction. Experience has taught us that went terrorist groups come under pressure and fall back, the move closer to their sponsor nation and that’s really helpful in planning coordinated offensives.
Now, of the 14,000 plus reported attacks worldwide, almost 43 percentabout 6,200occurred in Iraq where approximately 13,600 fatalities60 percent of the worldwide totalwere reported for 2007.
The number of reported attacks in 2007 fell in the Western Hemisphere by 42 percent, in Europe and Eurasia by 8 percent, and in South Asia by almost 7 percent. In 2005, Iraq accounted for 30 percent of the worldwide terrorist attacks. Alright class, what does this tell you, and I swear if anyone here doesn’t get this one right, you’re all going back to the motor pool! Yes, ok…you got it! This indicates there is a strong correlation to the number of terrorist activities in Iraq and the declining number in rest of the world. CIA, DIA and others have concluded that the war in Iraq is having a negative impact on terrorist resources and it gives us a hint to how limited those terrorist resources really are.
Now for your homework, in addition to the human toll, over 19,000 facilities were struck or were targets of terrorist attacks last year. Since the datas baseline in 2005, the most common types of properties damaged or destroyed during an attack were vehicles and residences, but in 2007 communities were frequently attacked, an approximate increase of 45 percent, from just over 930 attacks in 2006 to well over 1,300 attacks in 2007. What then is the projection for 2008 if all else, like troop deployment remained equal? And then answer this, if attacks in 2008 were to subside in Iraq and the rest of the world what conclusion would you reach?
Before our class is dismissed for today I want you to remember one last thing, Section 2656f(b) of Title 22 of the U.S. Code. This is a law passed by Congress that makes the State Department responsible for tracking open source data on terrorist events around the world. And the result is “terrorist stats” open to the news media and they use it to craft their version of the real story…. absent what we know is the real story. But, now you know what their stories are worth because you have just learned what 90% of media doesn’t know. So you will never again put much stock in what they have to say based off their limited statistical data, …Hooah?
Report back at 0700 hours, class dismissed! Oh and don’t forget, watch me in “Patriot Games”, it’s on TV tonight.