Posted by Tina
Polls make a news story. During elections they can help drive momentum. So what do we make of polls that claim one candidate has an edge over his opponent? A look back in time reveals an interesting picture.
An article dated September 14, 2000 by William Saletan, Why Bush Is Toast declared:
* Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It’s fashionable at this stage to caution that “anything can happen,” that Bush is “retooling,” and that the numbers can turn in Bush’s favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can’t. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over. *
Four years later this story was posted by Hillbuzz on FreeRepublic:
(October 8, 2004) Kerry takes lead in new opinion poll
* Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over US President George W Bush, according to a new opinion poll. *** The survey by the Associated Press found that Kerry had gained ground with women, boosting his overall popularity and cutting into the president’s advantage on national security. *** The two candidates remain in a very close race ahead of a second debate tomorrow in St. Louis. *** Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, 50 per cent to 46 per cent, in the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. *
And the rest, as they say…