BY Jack Lee
When examining the reasons we should stay and continue this war, we have to look at Afghanistan’s recent history, examine the orignal reasons we went in and then decide if those reasons still exist and if we have the will to see it through…even if it means being there for another twenty years!
In the late 1970’s the Russians were attempting to prop up an unpopular regime forged in their own model, a model which was totally unfamiliar to the Afghan people. The Taliban (formerly known as the Mujahideen) actually evolved from the orignal resistance fighters, which at the height of the war had over 4000 base camps and had drawn the Pashtun warlords into the fight. They were a popular fighting force and they still are in many areas of Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda was nothing until this war broke out and their focus in those early years was very limited in scope. They were fighting against the atheist Russians that they saw as trying to impose Godless communism on the Islamic people of Afghanistan! This was an affront to Islam and it was a simple and compelling cause that resonated well with many Arab Muslims.
Russian casualties began to increase shortly after the CIA supplied the Mujahideen/Taliban with US advisers and sophisticated US weaponry (Stinger missiles) to knock out Russian aircraft. Russia’s one major edge at the time was airpower and we undermined that with ground to air missiles. That’s when the cost of the war for the Russians rose dramatically and became too much for them. The huge cost factor in resources and lives was unacceptable for an already economically challenged USSR. Seeing no future in propping up an impotent regime, albeit a communist regime, the Russian’s decided to cut their losses and bail even though the Taliban would score this as a humiliating victory against a superpower.
Before they left, the Soviets took a long range look at the second and third consequences should Afghanistan’s communist government fail and a radical theocracy replace it. What if the Americans tried to use their influence next to impose a western style government? (That thought no doubt brought a smile to their faces. Because they knew democracy would be about as popular with Islamic Afghani’s as was communism)
The Russians decided the only sensible course of action was a scheduled withdrawal while turning over control of the war to the Afghan government led by Mohammed Najibulah. Najibulah was being tossed to the wolves and he knew it. So he offered a very generous plan for forgiveness and repatriation of the Mujahideen fighters, but they had other plans and the offer was flatly declined. Months later the Taliban seized power and poor Najibulah the pawn was executed by a public hanging. The new Taliban party was in power.
It’s interesting to note that now President Karzai has made similar overtures to the Taliban should they wish to seek a peaceful resolution and have a part in the new government.
A brief history of important events:
1. The United States began training insurgents in, and directing propaganda broadcasts into Afghanistan from Pakistan in 1978.
2. 1979 – Russian invades Afghanistan to save pro-communist government.
3. Early 1980’s – Afghan-Arabs form alliances to wage jihad. Political assassinations begin. In June 1982 a column of about 1,000 young communist party members sent out to work in the Panjshir valley were ambushed within 30 km of Kabul, with heavy loss of life.
4. 1985, the US government adopted National Security Decision Directive (NSDD) 166, which set a goal of military victory for the Mujahideen.
5. 1985 – Russia begins to plan for an exit strategy. The first step of the exit strategy was to transfer the burden of fighting the Mujahideen to the Afghan armed forces, with the aim of preparing them to operate without Soviet help.
6. 1985 – 1987 jihadists launch over 600 terrorist attacks and over 23,500 shellings. The Naghlu power station was blown up. The effects were a slow bleed of Russian forces and the growing destruction of vital infrastructure.
7. 1986, CIA introduces Stinger missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft.
8. 1986 – 1988 Pashtun regions get small arms from CIA.
9. 1989, the last Soviet troops departed on schedule from Afghanistan.
Osama and most of his followers left Afghanistan after the Taliban took charge. Then Osama returned to Saudi Arbia, but quicly wore out his welcome because he was critical of the government. He then left for the Sudan, but his links to terrorism in there and in other African countries forced him to seek safe haven back in Afghanistan and reconstitute his limited AQ forces.
By 1999 Osama bin Laden had gained virtual control over Al Qaeda’s relatively modest numbers within Afghanistan and a scattering of AQ jihadists outside Afghanistan. In order to justify remaining within Afghanistan Osama uses his forces to act as security for the Taliban. It’s interesting to note that the Taliban were not too excited about seeing power hungry Osama come back and they were somewhat reluctant to play host to is AQ forces, but in consideration of AQ’s past help against the Russians, they accommodated them.
Then on Sept. 11th, 2001 AQ operatives launch an attack on the USA. Now the Taliban were placed in the unexpected position of surrendering their AQ allies to the US or continuing to give them safe harbor. The Taliban saw the USA as a nation of infidels and to surrender AQ was unacceptable. Instead they chose to do nothing, defying the US demand. They made a real bad decision when they took a wait and see approach.
The Taliban had greatly underestimated the US determination at that time and it cost them. They were quickly run out of power by handful of army special forces advisers and the Army of the Northern Alliance that had resisted the Talban. With the help of US airpower the rebel army forced the Taliban to flee into the Tora Bora Mountains and Pakistan.
Since then, the United States has attempted build an Afghan government based on our model which was completely foreign to the Afghan people (just like Russia did). And just as the Russians discovered, there was little to build on. Afghanistan is a rock pile with few natural resources. The people of Afghanistan typically resist change (progress) due to medieval religious values and they are also divided along tribal and ethnic lines which are now all heavily armed and some areas are run by warlords, thanks mostly to the arms supplied by America in the late 70’s and 80’s.
The current Afghan government was more or less imposed on the Afghani people when we helped the Northern Alliance take over and once again the players at the top are self serving bureaucrats that get little respect from the people just as before under the Russians. The current leader, Hamid Karzai blatantly attempted to steal the last election by rigging the ballot boxes. It was only after strong coercion by his US backers that he has agreed to a runoff election. That was a fact not lost on Afghan people nor the Taliban. They know this government is weak and corrupt!
Since their fall from power the Taliban have been doing everything they can to regroup and garnering support from a number of countries and Islamic entities. The support has been primarily in the Middle East and countries unfriendly to the US who would desperately love to see America get bogged down in a costly and protracted war just like the Russians.
Moving to current times the Taliban has gained strength and moved back into a number of remote regions in Afghanistan and the violence against civilians has greatly increased.
US advisers say we must do more to turn back the Taliban or risk losing the war. President Obama appears to be hesitating on the advice of his military leaders who say at least another 40,000 troops are needed to fight the Taliban and stabilize our area of operation.
Naturally, the Taliban see this pontificating by President Obama as a sign of weakness. This has led them to do more violence in the belief that if they can ramp up the death toll enough they could influence President Obama’s decision and force him to look at an exit plan rather than continue the war.
To further encourage and embolden the Taliban, President Karzai’ is declining in popularity and control. (Karzai’s brother is a well known drug warlord exporting opium to the world.) This is why the Taliban is determined to disrupt the runoff election for the two candidates, neither of whom seem have much support and trust within the general population.
President Obama has announced several weeks ago that he will not send more troops to Afghanistan until a free and fair election has been held, something the Taliban is determined not to happen. The deployment of additional troops was requested by Army Gen. McChrystal for two reasons: Regain control over regions dominated by the Taliban and secondly to limit our combat losses which have been rising due to the increased Taliban presence. Refusing to deploy additional troops right now has resulted in America’s highest combat casualties since the war began.
The Afghan election is set for 31 Oct. 2009, so it’s doubtful that President Obama will announce his troop deployment intentions until around 10 or 12 days later.
President Obama is playing a high stakes game with the lives of soldiers as he delays his decision. However, he may be doing exactly the right thing, despite the howls from Republicans to commit more troops immediately. Obama has to be asking his advisers some really hard questions, such as: Shall we go forward with the army’s plan to sacrifice our troop’s safety in order to mingle among the Afghan people, avoiding civilian casualties at all costs in order to win the hearts and minds of the people? Should we send more soldiers to gamble on a war that may require a 20 years or more to win, is it that important to us? Are we THAT determined to do nation building where there is nothing to build on and nothing to support the infrastructure once it is built, is that smart? These questions deserve honest and intelligent answers. But, the overriding question is: Will AQ be allowed back into Afghanistan if the Taliban are returned to power? If this is our main reason for being there I think we can strike a deal with the Taliban.
Meanwhile Pakistan is waging an all war on the Taliban because they have no choice. It’s a case of either crush them and drive them out of Pakistan or be subjected to a slow death from Taliban inspired terrorism and regional insurrections. The Pakistan government has to win this one because the consequences of Pakistan becoming a Taliban style theocracy backed up with nuclear weapons is so nightmarish as to be absolutely unacceptable.
The terrible irony is, this has all been set in play by just one man, Osama bin Laden. He is a person we could have stopped on any number of occasions 10-12 years ago, if we had courage and foresight employed by so many past administrations. 9/11 could have been avoided, two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would have been avoided and Pakistan would not now be fighting for its survival. Many mistakes by many people with questionable justifications for their actions have take its toll. Now the world waits to see our President’s next move. Let’s pray it’s the right one.
What would you do?