by J. Lee
Where do you go after you have promised to deliver a massive nuclear strike on the USA and South Korea and then you make the over act of moving ballistic missiles to shorten the range to your target?
The White House press secretary has issued several responses to the North’s threats of a nuclear holocaust, with words like this: ”We take these threats very seriously,” but always adding, “We don’t think North Korea has the technology to carry out their threats.” So, is this is just more tough talk? Maybe… but, we’re moving our portable anti-missile defenses to Alaska…just in case.
It’s a confusing situation.
The White House is saying this is merely more rhetoric coming from a young dictator in order to position himself as a strong leader. Threatening the USA is for internal consumption. This will help him gain credibility and keep his enemies at bay that might otherwise be plotting his overthrow.
Then we here from the same scources, that we are taking the rhetoric very seriously, because this is the first time the US has been openly threatened with a nuclear strike by North Korea (or anyone else for that matter) and we’re taking defensive measures.
The warning from North Korea gave a fairly precise deadline, ”Will will strike withing the next 1 or 2 days.” Okay, so we’re on day 2 and they are moving a ballistic missile into position. Their military is deployed along the border in preparation for an invasion of South Korea… what’s next? They’ve pretty much run out of room for more scarey rhetoric.
The forces line up like this: The Korean People’s Army called the KPA is the world’s fifth largest military at 1.2 million personnel. It has 4,100 tanks, 8,500 field artillery pieces and 5,100 multiple rocket launchers as well as 620 combat aircraft. They also have over 600 Scud missiles that are capable of hitting targets anywhere in South Korea, plus another 200-300 that could reach as far as Japan and US military bases in that region.
The CIA believes North Korea has enough plutonium to make four to eight nuclear bombs, but no one knows whether it has the technology to deliver them as missile warheads.
Global military experts assure us that much of the KPA equipment is obsolete and plagued by shortages of fuel and spare parts. But conventional artillery and missiles could inflict heavy casualties and severe damage in Seoul, which lies just 50 kilometres (30 miles) south of the border.
The North is also believed to have up to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons deliverable by artillery or missile.
South Korea’s 655,000-strong military is supported by 28,000 US troops, based in the South since the 1950-53 war. The South has about 2,400 battle tanks plus 50 US tanks, 5,200 field artillery pieces and 200 multiple rocket launchers. The South has some 460 combat aircraft bolstered by around 90 US fighters. The quality of the South’s armaments is superior to North’s and this is said to level the odds to even. At sea, the South can deploy 19 combat vessels compared to the North’s three.
In a full-on invasion, using secret tunnels to bypass mine fields the North could reach Seoul in a matter of hours, if all went as planned.
Despite the dire threats of a nuclear first strike, most people in the know think the North would never risk it. The US pulled it’s tactical nuclear warheads out in 1991.
Most North Korean troops and conventional firepower are based extremely close to the border with the South, theoretically allowing for a swift invasion as in 1950. And it’s expected that an invasion attack would be preceded by a long, devastating artillery barrage on the populace and military positions.
AP- “The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said that with both sides would likely incur catastrophic losses, and that neither sides wants a war for fear of the horiffic consequences.” However, you must consider this is only an assumption based on the belief that North Korea is fully aware of the US and South Korea’s war-fighting abilities. But, what if they aren’t and the KPA has been kept from the truth, indoctrinated for generations into believing they could win easily? What if, only a handful of fanatics know the truth, but are willing to take the gamble or see their life long efforts come to naught?
Most professional intelligence officers feel the danger is that war could start over a simple miscalculation, misperception or escalation, rather than by a premeditated design….maybe, maybe not. Either way…war is but a heartbeat away at this moment.
UPDATE: Cyber attacks have taken down North Korean websites… “An Anonymous hacktivist cell identified as Anonymous_Korea launched successful DDOS (distributed denial of service) attacks on multiple North Korean state websites on Saturday, March 30, only hours after the North Koreans issued an inflammatory statement declaring that they had entered into a “state of war” with South Korea. (http://www.examiner.com/article/anonymous-declares-war-on-north-korea-disables-government-websites)
Sites taken down include the Korean and English language versions of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North Korean Committee for Cultural Relations and the state-owned airline Air Koryo.
North Korea declares it is now in State of War with South Korea. Pledges to dissolve America. (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/north-korea-declares-state-war-1792685)