99% Chance – Big Quake Will Hit California Soon

Posted by Jack


quakeimage_5565From Live Science. . .

2011-earthquakeCalifornia has had it’s share of problems, from floods, to raging brush fires to one of the worst droughts in our time and now you can add another.  Scientists released a report in March of this year that forecasts the near certainly of a Northridge size earthquake to hit somewhere in California within the next 30 years.   However, Northridge was not the big one we’ve been expecting.    Studies say we have about a 20% chance a 6.0 will hit within 3 decades and there’s a greater chance that an 8.0 will hit than was predicted just a few years ago.  A magnitude 8 quake would be twice as strong as the devastating 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a magnitude 7.8.

Draught could trigger an earthquake.  A new study in the journal Nature adds an extra fear factor, suggesting the more water that’s pumped out of the ground in the Central Valley during these dire drought conditions, the greater the chance of earthquakes on the nearby San Andreas fault.

earthquake2015“So the idea behind this proposal is, if the ground is sinking, does that sinking cause accelerated movement along the fault? And that might be the trigger to make a fault movement occur,” SDSU geology professor Dr. Pat Abbott said.

The new report does not predict when or where earthquakes will strike, nor how big the next quake will be; instead, it provides a better sense of how often earthquakes will occur and how likely faults are to break in the next three decades. This information helps set earthquake insurance rates and building codes in California.

Three of California’s recent big earthquakes crossed fault lines: the 1992 Landers quake, the 1999 Hector Mine quake and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah quake. The 2007 study had chopped faults into pieces that broke separately during earthquakes.  “We’ve come to realize that we’re not dealing with separate, isolated faults. We’re dealing with an interconnected fault system,” Field told Live Science.earthq11

California straddles the boundary between two tectonic plates — the North America and Pacific plates — that have been sliding past one another for 30 million years. Over the millennia, Earth’s crust has been sliced and diced into hundreds of faults, forming an interconnected system that resembles a huge, braided river.

Southern California’s overall earthquake risk is 93 percent in the next three decades.  “The seismic hazards are higher in Southern California than in Northern California right now,” said Tom Jordan, a report co-author and director of the Southern California Earthquake Center. “People in Southern California should realize that the next 50 years are likely to be much more seismically active. The last 50 years are not what we would consider to be normal.”

In Northern California, the Bay Area’s biggest earthquake risk comes from the Hayward Fault, with a 14.3 percent risk of a magnitude-6.7 quake over the next 30 years. (A short stretch of the Hayward Fault also has a higher, 22.3 percent risk over the next 30 years.)


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10 Responses to 99% Chance – Big Quake Will Hit California Soon

  1. Peggy says:

    Off topic, but of interest concerning natural disasters.

    The Age Of Disinformation:

    “I have been a professional meteorologist for 36 years. Since my debut on television in 1979, I have been an eyewitness to the many changes in technology, society, and how we communicate. I am one who embraces change, and celebrates the higher quality of life we enjoy now thanks to this progress.

    But, at the same time, I realize the instant communication platforms we enjoy now do have some negatives that are troubling. Just a few examples in recent days…”


  2. Pie Guevara says:

    There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that if California experiences another big quake soon it will be blamed on global warming by one group and fracking by another.

  3. Dewey says:

    LOL Fracking has been directly related to Earthquakes. That is Fact.

    Oklahoma’s new brew of earthquakes is not a natural occurrence.

    Also shooting unknown chemicals miles down into the Earths surface?

    The fact they made it a felony to disclose what those chemicals were? Come on. Also so much of these products are exported what are the people really getting out of it?

    There needs to be a balance. For all the hate against Obama he sure opened up the gas and oil permits for ya. He is quite the bankers and oil company friend. Obama is no Liberal.

    Why do you think towns are banning fracking in CA and Texass because they are being harmed? WHy do you think the companies are writing law banning fracking is against the law?

    Bottom line we have reached a point where people have a choice where we support a political system that takes care of it’s people and supports business,

    or a political system ran by business for profit first, humans second.

    The Dem Party is about to get cleansed let’s hope the GOP gets cleansed. There are not politicians but elected men who are bought by a billionaire. Small favors are cheap. Call your local lobbyist and write a check.

    When I lobby I take honey.

  4. Dewey says:

    Off Topic

    Anyone holding Plains American pipeline company accountable to clean up our Beaches? Or are the taxpayers going to be stuck with it for years?

    We export all this oil folks and get the cleanup bills. There needs to be a balance. Our national reserves were an asaet now they are going to a country who wants to over take America?

    We need to take care of our beautiful California beach. The oil is there, let’s make sure it is properly dealt with. That has not happened yet.

    Remember there are 30 million gallons of oil left at the bottom of the gulf. California needs to make sure we are treated properly by Plains American.

  5. Southern Comfort says:

    got me a cousin what does long haul truckin’ that says when hes hauln’ to California he’s rollin’ toward shaky city.

  6. Dan the Man says:

    Fracking has been related to earthquakes? i dont believe it. wheres the science on this?

  7. More Common Sense says:

    First off I am one of the rare native Californians in this state. I was born and raised in Fairfield.

    When the quake of 1989 hit I was sitting at my desk in my home office in Campbell, CA. I was working as a software development consultant at the time. This was just about 10 miles north of the epicenter. It is strange to see all of your desk drawers open by themselves all at once. I was talking to a client in San Diego and I terminated the call immediately. Although I was quite calm I scared this client considerably. He heard the quake start, heard the rumbling, heard the drawers opening, the glass from the dining room light fixture shatter on the table, the fire place tools falling over on the hearth, and a multitude of frightening nosies along with my comment that I needed to check the gas lines so there wouldn’t be a fire. I remember taking it in stride. We had several 5.0 plus quakes leading up to this one. After I hung up the phone I went to check the gas lines.

    I was living in the owners unit of a 4 plex building that I owned that was located on a corner. There was a swimming pool in the back of the building. I was greeted with a wall of water coming down the street heading to the street drain on the corner. It was all water that had been rocked out of my swimming pool. It took 24 hours with a full running water source to restore the lost water in the pool; water that was lost in seconds. I checked the gas lines and all was well. We lost power until 4:00 am the next morning but, interestingly enough the phone lines remained up. The only news I could get was by sitting in my car listening to the radio.

    I , and the other people in the building raided their refrigerators, freezers, and bars and had an amazing evening outside grilling by flashlight and candlelight eating and drinking and really talking like people use to do.

    The only negative part of the night (other than the quake) occurred when everyone went to bed. We lived about 5 blocks from a shopping center on Winchester Blvd. I couldn’t sleep so I went for a walk. I was feeling good about how everyone pulled together. Keep in mind there are no lights anywhere. As I approached the shopping center in the dark I heard people yelling at each other; definitely not have the same experience I was having. I heard a crowd of people that, as best I can explain, doing what is called “wilding”. At that moment I realized there are people everywhere that are just waiting for situations like this to act out and, in my opinion, become their true selves. It was one of the few times in my 60 years that I was very concerned about my safety. I’m 6.0 foot, 225 pounds and, at that time, in very good shape. Yet, I was very frightened. No one knew I was there so I went home and slept only to be awakened at 4:00 am by everything turning on when the power came back on.

    Someday the big one is going to hit. I really hope that all the good people in the state can be strong enough to suppress the surge of wild behavior that will occur. I believe they will, but it still is a huge concern.

    I’m just thankful I now live in Chico and don’t have to be concerned about an earthquake destroying my world. I’m still concerned that, should a huge quake happen, Chico may experience some very negative effects from the spill-over of the refugees from the bay area. It might be Chico’s darkest moment. On the other hand, it might be Chico’s greatest moment. It all depends.

  8. Pie Guevara says:

    #3 Dewey : “LOL Fracking has been directly related to Earthquakes. That is Fact.”

    Thanks Ooey Dewey!!! That is pure gold. I knew a mentally deranged wreck like you could not resist that bait.

    Next up : Some other lunatic on the latest global warming crisis, earthquakes.

  9. Peggy says:

    More Common Sense, we were just blocks away from each other during the ’89 quake. I was at SJCC on the corner of Moorpark and Bascom and my home was close to the intersection of Bascom and Campbell just off of Leigh and Dry Creek.

    It took me an hour to travel just the couple of miles rushing home to see if my son in his wheelchair was ok. After getting thru the intersection of Bascom and Hamilton I was able to cut thru residential streets and was shocked at all of the water running down the gutters and drains.

    When I got home to find my son shook but safe. The big shock came when I saw the pool almost empty with the water level below the first step filled with muddy water and a dirty water line on the house. I didn’t then store water because I figured with a 30,000 gallon pool we could use it to wash and boil to drink. Water is stored in huge towers why not pools? I was so wrong.

    Today I have water, a pantry full of non perishable food, a garden and three full propane tanks for the barbeque. Even living in Chico now, while I do feel safer from any major damage the next big one will do I’m concerned about how long the power will be out and water unavailable. Most of Chico’s water mains are decades old and probably will fail.

    Being prepared for the next one is not an option, not if you live in Calif.

    PS. I moved to SJ in 1960, graduated from Blackford HS and lived off of Williams Rd. close to Saratoga Ave. My sons graduated from Del Mar. Moved here in 2003. Small world.

  10. Chris says:

    There is plenty of scientific evidence that fracking has contributed to the frequency of earthquakes. Now, I don’t think the science is settled on that issue, and there are conflicting reports. But I wouldn’t call someone a “mentally deranged wreck” for having a difference of opinion on that issue. That type of name-calling, minus anything approaching a rational rebuttal, exposes far more about the attacker than the attackee.

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