Most Meaningful Poll Following Debate

WSJ Poll:

President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time.

The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who directed the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt, cautioned that the poll was conducted during an unsettled moment after the caustic presidential debate—“a shock to the system,” he called it—and could reflect a temporary reassessment of views. “The public can be taking a moment to say, ‘What did I just see, and how do I feel about it?'” he said. Mr. Trump could regain ground, Mr. McInturff said, given that “he has a history of bouncing back to some set point.”

Preference for president WSJ/NBC News telephone polls, most recently of800 registered voters conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 1,2020; margin of error +/- 3.5 pct. pts.Note: No data for May.

For now, though, the poll represents a number of flashing caution signs for the president. His support has never before fallen below 40% on the ballot against Mr. Biden. Women, who outnumber men in the electorate, favor Mr. Biden in the survey by 27 percentage points, 60% to 33%, compared with 20 points last month. At the same time, support for Mr. Trump has softened among some of his most loyal groups, such as white, working-class men.

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8 Responses to Most Meaningful Poll Following Debate

  1. Peggy says:

    Jack, this poll reflects registered voters not likely voters. Likely voters would be more accurate.

    The below PDF file says 800 were polled but the breakdown count per question in around 100+/-.

    Total # of democrats was 45.
    Total # of republicans was 36.
    Balance Independence and other.

    Not a math wiz, but the percentages reflected by party ID seems way off to me. Seems more disinformation to suppress the turnout.

  2. Peggy says:

    Enjoy Allen West and David Barton at Cornerstone Church. They begin at 26:40. Worth watching.

  3. Peggy says:

    Wonder how the release of these hidden documents will have on polls?

    Trump Orders Declassification of Long-Withheld Spy Records:

    “President Donald Trump has directed White House chief of staff Mark Meadows to begin the process of declassifying more documents tied to the Obama administration’s investigation and spying on the Trump 2016 presidential campaign.

    “He’s already tasked me with getting some declassification rolling, in a follow up to some of the requests that Devin Nunes and others have made,” Meadows told “Fox and Friends” on Oct. 5, referring to House Intelligence Committee ranking member Devin Nunes (R-Calif.)”

  4. J. Soden says:

    Whenever I see poll numbers, I’m reminded that those same pollsters GUARANTEED a $hrilLIARy win in the last presidential election.
    And that didn’t work out too well, did it?
    The only poll that matters is by voters on election day.

    • Post Scripts says:

      JS, yep I know, I get it. But, we can’t rely on those old poll numbers happening again because we don’t have the undecided vote like we did last time. The undecided threw all the polls off, but the polls this time are likely to be a lot more accurate…a lot more. That means if Trump repeats his performance again in the next debate well, lets say…..

      Right now its the top of the 9th, we’ve got two outs and we’re down by three. The bases are loaded and the count is two and 0. Mighty Trump better listen to the coach this time or there will be no joy in Mudville come Tuesday, Nov. 3rd.

      • Peggy says:

        Hopefully enough voters will wake up and realize it’s not how the man talks, but what he’s done. If not the rest of America will be living in states just like Calif.

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