Economic Apocalypse or Time to Stand Up?

by Jack

The news is horrific, 28.5M new claims for unemployment, government rushing towards  printing up 2 trillion dollars or more in debt, we’re seeing zero percent prime,  there’s a virtual panic in Congress to bailout everyone for everything, from individuals to mega-corporations, it’s spending on the old credit card like there’s no tomorrow and at the rate of these devastating, self inflicted, injuries there may not be!

This has all the earmarking’s of a complete and utter collapse of the free market system as we know it, and it’s going global.  Emergency reserve funds to insure basic things like  bank liquidity and unemployment insurance are quickly drying up.  Over half the nation is suddenly without a paycheck and a good portion of them have no cash reserves, no safety net to ease going into the worlds worst economic apocalypse.

Sounds like a scene from one of these doomsday movies doesn’t it?   Well, this is exactly what is happening thanks to a legislative stampede in Washington.  These foolish, short sighted, weak knee’ d, self serving bureaucrats are falling all over themselves to do something quickly, even if it is completely wrong!  Even if, it means selling out their own stock before the bad news hits the street.  The latter bunch, those arrogant, greedy, crooks, should be booted from office immediately before they can do any more damage.  Better yet, they should forfeit 100% of the proceeds from the stock sales as a penalty.

[If] we can stop these criminals and their unwitting low brow colleagues right now, before they pass this nation killing, two trillion dollar budget, we might just salvage the country from economic ruin.

Here’s what we need to do if we want a longer term success story:

  1.  Cancel all quarantines, except for the most infected cities. We are going too far with quarantining our work force.  Work is life, without it we are worse than with the virus.
  2.  Resume producing and working now.  And to get people working we’re going to have to be creative and suspend some regulations and rules that keep people out of work!
  3.  Suspend government minimum wage, let supply and demand determine wage at least until we are on firm economic ground.
  4.  Face the fact that some people who fail to take preventative measures to avoid virus are going to get sick and some of them are going to die.  People die all the time- get over it.
  5.  Realize that even without medical intervention 96% of the population will survive.  This virus is bad, but its not the end of the world, not even close.  But, what we are doing wrong right this minute could destroy so much of what keeps us going.
  6.  Face the fact that there will be some collateral damage until the virus has burnt itself   out.   S- happens – deal with it.  We will be okay eventually.
  7.  Realize that most of the persons that will die from COVID virus would probably be dead within 2-5 years anyway.  This is just life, its tough, but so are we and therefore we deal with it.  We should not be spending 90% of our healthcare dollars  to extend life by 3% or 4%.  This is not cold, this is being real.
  8.  Continue to restrict air travel to and from international hot spots during National Emergency.  We’ve done some good things already, we need to keep the good ideas and dump the stupid ideas, something rarely done in Washington.
  9.  End social security benefits to all persons with a retirement income above $150k. This will help make our older American’s more secure and future generations too.  Those earning over 150k don’t need this insurance and lets remember this was really intended to be an insurance policy to impoverished seniors, not a universal retirement plan.
  10.  Double penalties for crimes committed during any National Emergency.  No nonsense approach to crime must be taken, too many states are going the wrong way.  New motto for all Americans should be: If you can’t do the time – don’t do the crime.
  11.  Suspend prison overcrowding rules and end prisoner appeals during National Emergency.  Prison is supposed to be tough.  Don’t like it, don’t do crime.  End judges that get in the way of this realistic and fair approach to curbing crime.
  12.  End welfare after 1 year for all able bodied (meaning mentally fit too) under 50 then see #15.
  13.  Reinstate sensible laws for panhandling, illegal camping and loitering.  This is a no brainer.  We need it to deal with the explosive bum population filled with druggies, predators and crazies.  We’ve got to separate them and deal with the bad guys in a tough and forceful way.
  14.  End all private litigation by these greedy ambulance chasing attorney’s suing big companies like GM, B.F. Goodrich, PG&E, etc., but make all CEO’s and Board of Directors criminally responsible for gross breaches of public safety.  Criminal penalties work far better than fines paid by innocent shareholders!
  15.  Re-establish federal work program using conscripted labor consisting of able bodied, homeless and that are dependent on government for support.  Work programs to include fire prevention, forest management, rural road repair, pollution cleanup, farm labor, public works projects, etc.  Failure to comply ends government assistance. Everybody that can – works for their keep.  Don’t work – then don’t eat.
  16.  This is just a start and it took me all of 15 minutes to think it up, because its just common sense stuff.  If we could do [only] this much, our nation would be much stronger and much more successful than ever.  Whatever the losses we suffered from these emergency measures would pale by comparison to the massive gains we made for our national security.
Posted in Health and Medicine | Tagged , , | 42 Comments

Good News – COVIDS

Shares of micro-cap biotherapeutics company Bellerophon Therapeutics Inc BLPH 430.97% gap-opened higher Friday morning and were holding on to the gains during the trading session.

The Warren, New Jersey-based company said the FDA has granted emergency expanded access for its proprietary inhaled nitric oxide delivery system, INOpulse, which would allow it to be immediately used for the treatment of COVID-19.

Nitric oxide is a naturally produced molecule that is critical to the immune response against pathogens and infections.

Lab studies have shown nitric oxide impedes replication of SARS-CoV, a strain of coronavirus that caused the SARS epidemic in 2003, according to Bellerophon. It also improved survival of cells infected by the virus.

SARS-CoV patients treated with INOpulse in clinical studies showed improvements in arterial oxygenation, a reduction in the need for ventilation support and an improvement in lung infiltrates observed on chest radiography, Bellerophon said.

Posted in Health and Medicine | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Substantial Evidence Chloroquine Attacks Corona Viruses (Updated)

By Pie Guevara

Pie Guevara appears in Posts Scripts through the gracious courtesy of Jack Lee and Tina Grazier and is an unregistered trademark of Engulf and Devour Investments LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Walton Industries which, in turn, is wholly owned by David Walton.  So there!

According to Dr. Mihael Polymeropoulos, co-founder and CEO of Vanda Pharmaceuticals, there are 10 years of substantial evidence that chloroquine attacks corona viruses. The attack is twofold: by inhibiting penetration of a host cell and if a cell is penetrated by interfering with virus replication.

Dr. Polymeropoulos does not go into detail but corona viruses attack a host cell via lysosome organelles in the host cell’s wall. Chloroquine inhibits penetration of the host cell by raising the pH (lowering the acidity) of the lysosomes. Since corona viruses require a higher lysome acidity to penetrate they are prevented from injecting their RNA into the host cell. Evidently the higher pH also causes the virus to be trapped by the lysosome and it eventually disintegrates.

Once a virus cell’s RNA enters a host cell it hijacks the cell’s ribosomes to create an enzyme that functions to replicate the original virus by the millions. Any Zn(2+) zinc ions present inside the cell inhibit replication but zinc ions cannot enter a cell unless there is some sort of  transport mechanism. Chloroquine aids the transport of  Zn(2+) zinc ions to the inside of a cell.

The intracellular zinc and chloroquine connection: Details begin at the 2:36 mark…

More details begin at the 1:32 mark…

Further details on how the coronavirus invades cells begins at the 2:47 mark…

People with mild or no symptoms unwittingly spread COVID-19. More on chloroquine…

 

 

Posted in Health and Medicine | Tagged | Leave a comment

Number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases worldwide as of March 19, 2020, by country

Latest update:   Number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases worldwide as of March 19, 2020, by country

Posted in Education, Health and Medicine | 8 Comments

A Look at the Bright Side

Stocks have plummeted across the board. We are going to go into a recession. Everyone is going to die. Or not.

The simple fact is this too shall pass. For now, good firms with solid incoming cash flows, and bad firms with unserviceable debt and troubled cash flows are being treated roughly equally. Knowing the difference never had more value. About the only type of firms everyone agrees have become more valuable are those that directly benefit from the COVID-19: drug firms (Arcturus (NASDAQ:ARCT)), disposable mask and gown suppliers (Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT)), work and play from home internet facilitators (Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)), etc.

Cash And Margin

For those with cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. Congratulations, you are the real winners here! But only if you actually deploy it. The personality that keeps cash on hand, tends to also be the personality that is too afraid to deploy it when times get tough. Don’t be that person. If you already had written trading and allocation rules which considered the situation of a greater than 20% loss in the market, dust it off and do that. For others, it’s time to consider suck it up, hold your nose, and be greedy when others are fearful. Just make sure you do it with logic and knowledge.

For instance, did you know while oil firms are in trouble, most whose main business is facilitating the transport of natural gas probably are not? Do you know why? Hint, look at this graph:

Chart Without looking at the dates, can you tell where the Great Recession or 2015 oil price collapse are? For people with cash on the sidelines, now is the time to buy excellent companies at fair prices, but you need to know which companies those are.

That however doesn’t apply in the same way for those considering extending margin. One needs to be very cautious with margin because by definition what is going on is irrational. Irrational can become even more irrational. More irrational can become crazy irrational. That guy on TV doesn’t know when it ends, I don’t know when it ends, and neither do you. Don’t pretend “it can’t get much worse.” It can. Or not.

That being said, there is opportunity apparent. So, I’m not going to make a blanket statement that margin shouldn’t be used at all. In fact, going conservatively into margin near the end of a crash is one way to significantly increase your portfolio’s long-term return. However, when do you know it’s the end? Again, irrational can become crazy irrational, and you are not going to know when this crash has fully played out. Nobody, Fed included, raises the green flag. Thus, the amount of margin one adopts should be kept low enough that prices could fall another 50% without you getting margin calls. That equates to having no more than 25% on margin today.

Source: Author Calculations

It also implies being willing to accept the 67% loss the above chart implies should it come to be. Nobody said getting rich is easy. The good news is if you are with Interactive Brokers, your margin is going to be very cheap.

You can actually do very, very well borrowing money at >2% to buy something that yields much more but is still reasonably safe. However, even here you need to be careful as Interactive Brokers can end up changing 50% max margin on a holding to 35%, 25% or even less without notice. It has been doing so with TNP, GLOP, and other preferred recently.

This may be one reason we are seeing some preferred and baby bonds become irrationally cheap. Because they aren’t allowed as much margin, they are getting liquidated as the most efficient means of meeting margin calls.

Thus, moving back to our all-cash buyers, these can be an excellent opportunity. If you have available cash, lower risk preferred and baby bonds should probably be the first place you look. Examples include: TGP.PB (yields 17.5%), TNP.PC (has a 34% YTM to its FTR clause), GLOP.PC (35% yield), GLOG.PA (16% yield), NSS (20% yield), GSLD (25% YTM), INSW.PA (13% YTM), ETP.PE (21% yield), NGLS.PA (28%), NS.PC (33%). These securities continue to get sold off, not so much because of fundamental weakness in the underlying firms, but instead due to fear and the technical reasons outlined above. Just be aware cheap can get cheaper. Don’t extend yourself so much that you can be blown out of a very good investment by a margin call at the worst possible point in time.

Also I need to disclose some of these securities go fixed to floating within a few years. I like fixed to floating because in a situation where we are still at 0% rates 2 years from now, I’m going to be fine “just” getting paid 6% as opposed to the 8% I started at.

Leave a comment

Oregon Police: Stop Calling 911!

By Pie Guevara

Pie Guevara appears in Posts Scripts through the gracious courtesy of Jack Lee and Tina Grazier and is an unregistered trademark of Engulf and Devour Investments LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Walton Industries which, in turn, is wholly owned by David Walton.  So there!

If you thought people hoarding toilet paper and other oddball things was sheer lunacy look what the Newport Police Department in Oregon has had to put up with.

People have been calling 911 because they have run out of toilet paper! (I wonder if such folks vote. *shudder*)

The problem has been so bad that the police put up a post on their Facebook page telling folks not to call 911 about running out of TP —

It’s hard to believe that we even have to post this. Do not call 9-1-1 just because you ran out of toilet paper. You will survive without our assistance.

In fact, history offers many other options for you in your time of need if you cannot find a roll of your favorite soft, ultra plush two-ply citrus scented tissue.

Seamen used old rope and anchor lines soaked in salt water. Ancient Romans used a sea sponge on a stick, also soaked in salt water. We are a coastal town. We have an abundance of salt water available. Sea shells were also used.

Mayans used corn cobs. Colonial Americans also used the core of the cob. Farmers not only used corn cobs, but used pages from the Farmers Almanac. Many Americans took advantage of the numerous pages torn from free catalogs such as Sears and Roebuck. The Sears Christmas catalog, four times thicker than the normal catalog, could get a family of three wiped clean from December through Valentine’s Day; or Saint Patrick’s Day if they were frugal.

Then, of course, there are always alternatives to toilet paper. Grocery receipts, newspaper, cloth rags, lace, cotton balls, and that empty toilet paper roll sitting on the holder right now. Plus, there are a variety of leaves you can safely use. Mother Earth News magazine will even tell you how to make your own wipes using fifteen different leaves. When all else fails, you have magazine pages. Start saving those catalogs you get in the mail that you usually toss into the recycle bin. Be resourceful. Be patient. There is a TP shortage. This too shall pass. Just don’t call 9-1-1. We cannot bring you toilet paper.

Posted in Humour, Police, Crime, Security | 4 Comments

COVIDS – Learning from the Italians

by Jack

It seems every day things get a bit more serious with this COVID virus.  I don’t wish to alarm you, however information ( knowing facts) is key to flattening the curve.  

Italy is  the example many health experts are using to predict what will happen in the US.  Why use Italy?  Well, they are a modern, 1st world nation.  They have good hospitals, doctors and nurses.  But, the rapid rate of COVID’s infection has overwhelmed their resources.  The current fatality rate is about 460 deaths per day and they’re a long way from reaching the peak of infection.

This is what we’re trying to avoid.  I didn’t want to introduce politics into this, but I have to say this one thing:  You can thank Trump for an early travel ban to and from virus hot spots, despite the highly vocal objections from democrats.  So, for once we got a jump on most other nations and that’s really helped delay the spread of the virus here.  Okay, that’s  it.

Despite their (Italy’s) best efforts, doctors and nurses, are getting sick and in a full blown contagion we should expect the same here.  This is exacerbating patient to provider ratios and forcing hospitals to employ strict triage methods (rationing).  For example, patients over 70 are simply told to go home, self quarantine and good luck.

People with surgical needs are being delayed, unless its absolutely critical to their survival.  However, life goes on, people are still getting ill from many other things, accident still happen, but they are all stressing Italy’s already rationed healthcare.  This is what the US quarantine methods are hoping to avoid, thus the “flattening of the curve.”

Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte defended the strict measures Italy has taken to contain the outbreak and predicted a stabilizing of numbers soon. But he acknowledged that the rise in cases — the most outside Asia — was “worrisome.”  This may be the understatement of the year.

In Italy the rules about travel, gathering in public, dining out, or just walking in the open are getting more strict as the virus spreads.  Now a new epicenter surges in Spain and we’re seeing a repeat of what Italy is experiencing.

European countries have closed their borders and on this continent even Canada has closed its border with the US.   That’s a first.

Locally and across the country, we’ve witnessed countless examples of silly people hoarding enormous amounts of food and healthcare items.  Why would someone buy a whole case of cough syrup or 150 cases of toilet paper?  This is just crazy!  This disrupts the supply chain, but you can’t really tell people to be sensible, either they are or they aren’t and there are currently no rules to stop them.

We  hope we can learn from Italy’s mistakes and minimize COVID’s impact on us.   Speaking of mistakes, one of our responses has been to release prisoners early to avoid an outbreak within the county jails.  Those with 30 days or less left on their sentence are being released.  In prison, early release is also being considered.  Apparently we learned nothing from the recent spike in crime after the State of California passed sentencing realignment ( prison overcrowding.)   Realignment may have reduced the prison population, but the cost to society has been far worse than the inconvenience of an overcrowded prison and here we go again.

If our police become in short supply due to illness, wouldn’t criminals take advantage of it?  The better question is, why wouldn’t they take advantage?   This new “help” from government has people buying guns that probably would never have considered owning a firearm before.   This is another ripple effect as government leaders consider our options.

And with that I will close and wish you all, “good luck.”

PS  Stock market in freefall.  Circuit breakers engaged early on, but no help, market falling at unprecedented rate.  The week, the stock market has suffered worst one day percentage drop in past 127 years.

 

Posted in Health and Medicine | Tagged , , , , , , , | 23 Comments

China Should Get a Bill… from the Rest of the World (Updated)

By Pie Guevara

Pie Guevara appears in Posts Scripts through the gracious courtesy of Jack Lee and Tina Grazier and is an unregistered trademark of Engulf and Devour Investments LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Walton Industries which, in turn, is wholly owned by David Walton.  So there!

The sections  below concerning Li Wenlian and the arrests by Wuhan police on December 30th have been revised and updated with further details. Other minor revisions have also been made.

This bears repeating: Since early December the Chinese government has been on a campaign of misinformation, obfuscation, suppression, censorship and cover-up of the coronavirus contagion. That campaign continues to this day. In early December virus infections in Wuhan were first reported after workers at the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market fell ill and were taken to local hospitals. By mid December the highly contagious and deadly coronavirus had been identified. Several Chinese genomics concerns had tested samples from sick patients, identified the new virus and submitted their reports to the government. In response on January 3rd China’s National Health Commission issued the researchers a gag order with instructions to destroy any virus samples. (Now there is an oxymoron, China’s National “Health” Commission. It is better described as China’s deadly contagion research suppression and propaganda department.)

On December 30th a genetic sequencing report inaccurately indicated the discovery of the SARS coronavirus infecting a patient with viral pneumonia.  Multiple doctors in Wuhan shared this information on the Internet including Wuhan Central Hospital ophthalmologist Li Wenlian. In a WeChat online forum around 5pm Li posted a warning to alumni from his medical school class that seven patients were unsuccessfully being treated for viral pneumonia within his department and had been diagnosed with SARS. Shortly thereafter he followed up to say it wasn’t SARS but an unspecified coronavirus.

The Chinese National Health Commission announced later that evening that 8 doctors engaging in the WeChat forum had been arrested by Wuhan Police and charged with “llegal acts of fabricating, spreading rumors and disrupting social order.” After reporting that the eight doctors had been charged the official state broadcaster, CCTV, issued the warning, “The Internet is not a land outside the law.” (Later that same eight were praised as whistleblowers as part of a propaganda manipulation to deflect mounting public criticism of the government after the virus outbreak was officially announced.)

Wuhan medical authorities subsequently forbade doctors from making public announcements and ordered them to report cases internally. In less than a day Li was subjected to disciplinary action and on January 3rd Wuhan police forced him to sign and fingerprint a letter admitting that he was spreading “untrue speech.”

On December 31st, after it had proof of and knew fully well of the outbreak of a deadly new coronavirus, the Chinese government informed the World Health Organization that a “mystery virus” was being spread among it’s citizens.

A telltale indicator of a highly virulent contagion is when hospital workers are infected by patients. On January 8th the Chinese government withheld information from members of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention visiting Wuhan that hospital workers had been infected by patients.

Chinese news organs were put on lockdown, censored and instructed what to say. Suppression of any news of the virus in China consequently limited news abroad. In mid January as deaths were increasing instead of warning residents of the outbreak local communist officials in Wuhan joined a crowd of 40,000 families that gather each year to share food as part of the Chinese New Year festivities.

It wasn’t until January 20th when President Xi Jinping finally officially acknowledged the outbreak of the coronavirus vowing to “resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic.”

The Purge Begins: In mid January chastised whistleblower Li Wenliang contracted the coronavirus. In a widely known statement before he died Li said of the failed containment of the coronavirus, “There should be more than one voice in a healthy society.” After he died on February 6th public outrage swelled on Chinese social media with massive outpourings of grief, anger and renewed demands for freedom of speech. Many of the social media complaints were wiped from the Internet. In an attempt to stem public criticism Beijing then offered up several scapegoats and threatened to purge more. Huajiahe village party chief Wang Baoquan, village deputy Party chief Peng Zhihong and the two most senior Hubei province health commission officials, chief Zhang Jin and director Liu Yingziand, were sacked for following the central government’s own policies.

On January 23rd the central government of China at last imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province in an effort to quarantine the center of the outbreak. By the time the lockdown was imposed mayor Zhou Xianwang estimated that 5 million of Wuhan’s 11 million residents had already fled the city.

Facing criticism and demands for resignation over not cancelling the potluck festival and slow action addressing the rapidly spreading contagion mayor Zhou Xianwang stated that he could not have acted faster as he had to get the go-ahead from the central government.

Chinese citizens are angry at the government’s handling of the virus outbreak and the economic crises arising from it. Quarantines and travel restrictions adversely affect business and leave workers without income. Revenue losses for the coming year of up to 50% for small to medium Chinese businesses and 20% or more for larger firms are forecast. Citizens of countries throughout the rest of the world should be angry too.

The totalitarian communist government of China continues their cowardly global campaign of propaganda, cover-up, obfuscation and denial. Not unexpectedly Democrats and their American lamesteam media lickspittles have enthusiastically picked up the propaganda ball absurdly clamoring that identifying the China originating virus as coming from China is “xenophobic” and “racist.”

As a result of the  Chinese government’s cowardice, ineptness and iron fist over the control of critical information the world is faced with a global pandemic that is costing not only lives but possibly trillions of dollars in the world economy. An economy that is forged and fueled by dozens of trading nations. The losses alone for professional sports across the globe could be in the tens of billions if not hundreds.

Nations of the world should gather together and hand the Chinese communists a bill for expenses incurred and losses sustained for this year. Of course that will never happen and if it did China would never pay. Nevertheless, such a suit might put this aggressive, international pariah and rogue nation on notice.

 

 

Posted in Health and Medicine, Politics and Government, World | 3 Comments

Thoughts on Crisis Investing

by Jack

The corona virus is hanging over the stock market like a huge black storm cloud.  However, for all the thunder and lightening, scary as it may be, this storm has done very little actual damage.   The real damage has been self inflicted.  From Feb. till now about 2.3 trillion dollars left the market due to panic selling.  But, the underlying wealth, the actual companies behind that stock selloff are still strong, still necessary and this presents us with one of these rare buying opportunities.  However, the key to making a successful buy is timing!  Please read on.

The only way I know to do prudent investing is like this:  Be prepared to stay in for the long haul, 1-5 years or more.   Use dollar cost averaging for each stock buy and never buy on the margin!   Diversify your portfolio with 10-12 stocks in 3 or 4 sectors and buy quality (preferably something with a small dividend).  Prioritize your first buys based on solid trends.  Psychologically an early profit here will give you staying power.

Right now Glaxo Kline Smith, Merck, Sanofi and Novartis are likely to be the main producer for a Corona virus vaccine.  That’s good, this will give them lots of attention and it will certainly help their bottom line.  But, the profit to be made from selling vaccines is relatively small, usually 1-4% of their total income.   However, because of the notoriety these stocks are now “in trend.”  It’s a safe bet there will be plenty of investors ready to snap big pharma stock at low prices.   The same could be said for Johnson and Johnson, Bayer and Pfizer, all strong companies that have been hammered with the sharp and sudden downturn in the market, but they are all poised to do very well in the coming months.

You just have to use your brain.  Figure out what stocks will likely do well and which stocks probably won’t because of this temporary health scare.   For example, banking stock, theater stock, restaurant stock, oil stock like Exxon, BP, Murphy,…all losers at the moment, but the good news is they are all approaching those tempting bargain basement levels.  How bad could you be hurt falling out of a basement window, right?  Something to think about.

For those with a little spare change, some imagination and the conviction to see it through, there is wealth to be made.   But, timing is everything!  Don’t be too eager to jump, better to miss the bottom price and get in close to the bottom when its on its way back up.

NOTE:  Stocks mentioned in this article should not be seen as an endorsement to buy or sell.  Use your own due diligence whenever investing in the market.

 

2 Comments

The Bernie Virus

Posted in Humour, Politics and Government | 9 Comments