Watts Up With That?

Today, October 5th marks my 20th year here in Chico California.

What I've learned so far:

1- It's a better place to live than many parts of California
2- People here can be very nice
3- Politics here can be very mean
4- Success is in the eye of the beholder

I came here with a u-hail trailer, a cat, and a job. Have I been successful here? I think so. I've had some failures too. But I am very thankful that I have a loving wife, two wonderful children, a new cat, a paid for roof over my head, a stable business, and some community respect. I'm appreciative to many whom have offered support and encouragement in my 20 years here.

As for my detractors, well there this quote from Bill Cosby: "I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody." Marshall, this blog's for you.

This is my last entry on this blog, see my new one at wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com

All new entries will appear there though this will remain as reference until such time the ER upgrades to a new blogging platform.

UPDATE: 10/08/07
A couple of people at coffe this morning inquired as to whether "Marshall" above referred to somebody locally. Thats not the case. It refers to a person involved in science that I've been corresponding with related to my www.surfacestations.org project who has been giving me advaice and encouragment in the face of some of the criticism I received about the project on the blogosphere. Any implied or imagined reference to anyone locally is simply a case of a shered first name.

Posted by Anthony Watts at 07:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

He're's a twist; while the north pole ice dwindles to record lows, the south pole ice reaches the maximum extent ever recorded.

A fellow who likes variable star research and AAVSO calling himself Tamino (not his real name - another phantom blogger) who runs a blog called "Open Mind". He used to be about explaining science, and did a pretty good job, but now has succumbed to the dark side of discourse and posted an opinion "...that it’s time to stop even listening to denialists, let alone arguing with them." and then further says "...it is the republican party in the U.S. that is the problem.".

Then right after that post, he puts up a graph of Northern Hemisphere Sea ice showing its drop with the challenge "Explain this"

It's just too funny to announce he's not going to discuss the matter further, then puts up a challenge on record northern hemisphere sea ice minimum, then the next day we get a new maximum ice record in the southern hemisphere. Perhaps the dichotomy was just too much for him. A hint for those in need of pressure valves - it's all about cycles.

In the same spirt then, explain this ;-)
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Monday, October 1, 2007 - Record SH sea ice maximum and NH sea ice minimum

Just when you thought this season's cryosphere couldn't be more strange .... The Southern Hemisphere sea ice area narrowly surpassed the previous historic maximum of 16.03 million sq. km to 16.17 million sq. km. The observed sea ice record in the Southern Hemisphere (1979-present) is not as long as the Northern Hemisphere. Prior to the satellite era, direct observations of the SH sea ice edge were sporadic.

The NH sea ice area reached an historic minimum on September 16, 2007 (2.92 million sq. km), representing a 27% drop in sea ice coverage compared to the previous (2005) record NH ice minimum.

We have updated our high resolution animation of this year's sea ice retreat (01/01/2007 - 09/23/2007). WARNING - This quicktime animation is very large at 200Mb, but it illustrates nicely the temporal evolution of this year's sea ice. Animation: 2007 sea ice minimum animation

In an related story, how 'bout those 2007 hurricanes? It's such a disappointly quiet year for many.

UPDATE Commenter Aaron Wells writes:
According to Cryosphere Today, normal North Pole ice area at this time is about 5 million km^2, with current amounts amounting to a negative anomaly of about 2 million km^2, for a current total of about 3 million km^2. On the other hand, the South Pole normal area is about 15 million km^2, with current amounts amounting to a positive anomaly of 1 million km^2, for a current total of about 16 million km^2.

Now, it is easy to get alarmed about the North Pole numbers, because they have gotten so close to zero. But the truth is about 2/3rd of total North Pole ice always melts by the end of the northern summer. This summer it got down to about 1/4 of the winter amount.

It is much less alarming if you consider the total between the 2 poles. Using the Cryosphere Today normals and current ice areas, there is normally about 20 million km^2, and currently there is only 19 million km^2. When realize that the total taken together only represents about a 5% reduction from normal, then it does not seem nearly as alarming.

Posted by Anthony Watts at 07:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (11)

A common theme with official climate stations of record is their placement with city and county fire stations. The reason? An observer is needed to transfer the data from the thermometer to the B91 form sent to NCDC every month. Unfortunately, fire stations are often not good places to measure temperature due to the amount of concrete and equipment around them. Their placement is to better serve the city population, putting them in the middle of UHI. For example here we see Bartow, FL city fire station provided by www.surfacestations.org volunteer surveyor Don Kostuch.

While this placement "is" over grass, the narrow grass strip is also within feet of parking, a major thoroughfare, located downtown near high rise buildings. This is not an ideal place at all to measure temperature, yet it is the official USHCN climate station of record. As shown by the graph provided by NASA GISS, there appears to be a step bias introduced in the early 1980's.

A possible cause is that the MMTS electronic thermometer was placed in 1984, according to NCDC's database. It is not uncommon to see such step biases introduced when the MMTS replaces the traditional Stevenson Screen shelter and mercury thermometers, since cable issues often force the MMTS to be closer to buildings. For example, consider Marysville, CA, one of the earliest and worst examples of a place unsuitable for climate measurement.

So far, over 70% of our USHCN climate network uses the MMTS electronic thermometer system.

While fire stations do give the appearance of a regular warm body to record the temperature and send it in to NCDC, sometimes it doesn't always go as planned. For example, this B91 form from Bartow looks a bit like a workbook assignment from school. There is a lot of data missing, and uncertainty over a couple of days of data:

See the original B91 form in PDF format.

Now while this form lacks neatness, the observer at least tries to provide something each day, in contrast to the very neat but nearly vacuous B91 form provided by the Marysville observer (PDF format).

Please don't get the idea that I'm putting down the hard work of the amateur climate observers, they perform a valuable and much needed service. The point here is quality control issues and missing data.

These B91 forms are just a couple of random samples, more on that missing data issue soon.

Posted by Anthony Watts at 07:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)